Research Summaries 2010-2011

Contracts and Grants Administered
July 1, 2010 – June 30, 2011

Ralph Archuleta 09/01/02-08/31/11 $397,395
Jamison Steidl
National Science Foundation, CMS-0201264(ARN05)

COSMOS Virtual Data Center CMS

This proposal will continue development of the COSMOS Strong-Motion Virtual Data Center (COSMOS VDC), an unrestricted, on-line, interactive, strong ground-motion search engine for earthquake engineers and scientists, emergency response and recovery agencies, and officials, and other earthquake professionals. The major goal of the COSMOS VDC is to expand and significantly improve the accessibility and the use of all strong-motion records collected by the ever-growing number of US and international organizations (e.g. USGS, CGS, ACoE, USBR, SCEC, Japan’s KNet and KikNet, Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau, and others). The COSMOS VDC operates under the direction of The Consortium of Organizations for Strong-Motion Observation Systems (http://www.cosmos-eq.org/), which enables the COSMOS VDC to respond to both the organizations that collect the data and to the users (academic and professional) of the data; and ensures continued responsiveness to the community of engineers, scientists and other users of strong-motion data. This proposal focuses on advancing the science of interactive, Web-based analysis, dissemination, and use of strong-motion data for the direct benefit of the engineering and scientific communities who use the data to mitigate and understand the nature of earthquake hazards. The proposed research will advance the capability of the COSMOS VDC by further developing the proven concept of a virtual data center and its important role in coordinating the access and dissemination of strong-motion data.
Intellectual Merit: The funding sought by this proposal will be used together with funds provided by COSMOS to: 1) develop standards-based web services in cooperation with the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) to automate notification, data retrieval and updating processes; 2) fill out the COSMOS VDC with parameters and data now missing or incomplete; 3) develop state-of-the-art methods for scalable, interactive data customization, visualization and format conversion; 4) augment the existing COSMOS VDC metadata database with leading-edge, efficient, GML-compliant geographic data types; 5) incorporate the latest technology in map servers; 6) create web services for interoperability with remote geotechnical and fault databases; 7) collaboratively develop processes to incorporate on-the-fly, user-directed retrieval and display of geotechnical and fault database information into the COSMOS VDC web interface; and 8) facilitate development of standards for data formats and processing.
---------------

Ralph Archuleta 07/01/03-08/31/12 $75,000
Jamison Steidl
COSMOS- 2003-02(ARN07)

COSMOS Virtual Data Center

This effort is in support of the COSMOS Virtual Data Center. The mission of COSMOS is to expand and modernize significantly the acquisition and application of strong-motion data in order to increase public safety from earthquakes.

One of the major objectives of COSMOS is to promote the advancement of strong-motion measurement in densely urbanized areas and other locations of special significance to a society likely to be struck by future earthquakes.
---------------

Ralph Archuleta
Department of Interior, 10600014 (ARU11)       1/1/11-12/31/12          $72,170
Department of Interior, G09AP00027(ARU10) 1/1/09-12/31/10          $73,921

Strong Ground Motions in Salt Lake City and Other Metropolitan Areas From Large Earthquakes on the Wasatch Fault.

Nearly 80% of the population of Utah lives near the Wasatch fault (Utah Geological Survey, 1996). The metropolitan areas of Salt Lake City and Provo/Orem are among the most hazardous regions of the United States (USGS, 1998). Besides the question: When will the next large earthquake occur? The most important question is: What will the ground motion be? Large earthquakes, even moderate sized events, are relatively rare on the Wasatch fault. The geological setting—where most of the infrastructure and the population are sitting on alluvial filled valleys—exacerbates the situation. We propose to mitigate the seismic risk by using dynamic and kinematic simulations of different earthquake scenarios to derive estimates of the expected ground motion from large earthquakes on the Wasatch fault. These simulations will account for: 1) geometry of the fault, 2) the velocity structure, in particular, the 3D structure with sediments juxtaposed against the granite of the mountains, 3) topography, 4) heterogeneous stress on the fault, and 5) physics of the constitutive laws for friction. Many different earthquake scenarios, based on different hypocenters and variations of the input parameters, will be simulated in order to determine the range of the ground motion. These simulations will provide ground motion for frequencies up to 1-2 Hz. We will make use of the extensive investigations already done for the Wasatch fault that document the geometry of the fault, active tectonics and the velocity and attenuation structure. Recent USGS funded projects will provide more details about the 3D velocity structure as well as the near-surface velocities for some limited regions. Professor Robert Smith, University of Utah, has been either directly or indirectly involved with most of the studies that provide these basic data. We have used the 3D community velocity model and the USGS description of the fault geometry as the baseline for our simulations. We have incorporated these features in our initial simulations of the dynamics of a spontaneously propagating fracture. We use the finite element code MAFE [Ma and Beroza, 2008; Ma and Archuleta, 2006; Ma et al., 2007] to simulate dynamic ruptures on dipping faults. The dynamics includes heterogeneous stress conditions and a slip weakening constitutive law for friction that couples the heterogeneous stresses on the fault with the elastic response during a spontaneous shear fracture. While this method includes the realistic effects of geology, fault structure and the physics of a spontaneously propagating shear fracture, the ground motion is computationally limited to frequencies less than 1-2 Hz. To extend the frequency range to higher frequencies ~10-20 Hz, we will collaborate with Professor Jacobo Bielak, Carnegie Mellon University, who has developed a hierarchical finite element method that can take our dynamic results of faulting as input to a kinematic model and propagate the motion to higher frequencies. With many different faulting scenarios there will be many different ground motion maps. The purpose of the project is to estimate the range of ground motion that should be expected from a MW ~7 earthquake on the Wasatch Fault. Preliminary results for normal faulting earthquakes show that the ground motion on the hanging wall (the side of the fault where most of population resides) has large ground motion and long duration due both to the proximity of the fault plane and the sediment filled basin. The largest amplitudes are within ±5 km of the fault trace, with the largest amplitudes on the vertical component. Basically, we have very limited direct knowledge of what to expect from a large normal-faulting earthquake. Through simulations of many scenario earthquakes that include realistic geological structure and fault geometries we will provide robust estimates for the expected ground motion from a MW~7 earthquake on the Wasatch fault.
---------------

Ralph Archuleta 3/15/10-2/28/11 $28,800
National Science Foundation, 0944317(ARN09)

Earthquake Source Dynamics: Data and Data-Constrained Numerical Modeling

Numerical modeling of seismic waves and rupture propagation has become an essential tool for investigating earthquake physics. The link between predictions from the numerical modeling and the data resulting from real earthquakes must be strengthened. Observations of natural faults and faulting that emerge from geological and seismological studies as well as those from laboratory tests open new questions and point out new challenges. A primary task is to reconcile these observations with physical models of the earthquake source.

The purpose of the workshop is to bring together the various researchers from the Americas, Asia and Europe who use numerical simulations to investigate dynamics of earthquake ruptures as well as those who have used data to infer the nature of earthquake ruptures. While not mutually exclusive, the union of the two sets of investigators is certainly greater than the intersection. A fundamental question that looms over both sets of investigators is what can the data (seismic, geodetic, geologic, laboratory) tell us about the rupture dynamics? Similarly, what predictions from different physical descriptions of rupture dynamics are observable?
---------------

Ralph Archuleta 11/1/10-10/31/12 $60,000
University of California, 20110295(ARS01)

Peer NGA-EAST Finite Fault Simulations.

We propose to compute ground motions from a kinematic source description that is based on correlated random distributions for the slip amplitude, rupture velocity, peak time (time of maximum sliprate) and rise time (duration of sliprate) on the fault (Schmedes et al., 2009). The distributions are determined from dynamic ruptures as are the correlations between slip amplitude, rupture velocity, and rise time (Schmedes et al., 2009). The method of using correlated random source parameters, based on the work of Liu et al. (2006), is very flexible and can be easily modified to adjust to our evolving understanding of earthquake ruptures. This kinematic approach is similar then the one proposed by Liu et al. (2006), but instead of creating separate normal distributed fields as a starting point, we propose to use a 4-dimensional Gauss distribution that is constructed using the covariance matrix of the normal score transformed parameters slip, rise time, peak time, and rupture velocity. To account for the effect of scattering on the high frequency radiation pattern, a frequency-dependent perturbation of azimuth, dip and rake of each subfault is implemented similar to Pitarka et al. (2000). The complexity of the source process is represented by spatial distributions of randomized source parameters, but the integrated characteristics of these parameters are constrained by the total seismic moment, radiated energy and the high-frequency decay of the spectral amplitudes in the source spectrum. The ground motions can be computed in either a 1D (horizontally layered) or 3D viscoelastic structure. If a 3D structure is used, only the low frequencies (f < ~1-2 Hz) are computed for that structure. A 1D structure, with travel times consistent with the 3D structure, is used for high frequencies. It needs to be emphasized that this method is not meant to give a single ground motion at a given station; it is meant to give a range of ground motions. We do not know the exact description of faulting for a future earthquake. We only know —statistically— the properties of past earthquakes. These properties are what we use in conjunction with the representation theorem and wave propagation to predict the range of ground motion at a given station or stations for a specified earthquake. We have validated this method against data from the Northridge and Loma Prieta earthquakes. We have also compared with Landers, but have not incorporated a multi-segmented fault, which is a much closer approximation to the actual rupture. The proposed method has already been implemented on the SCEC/USGS Broadband Platform.
---------------

Ralph Archuleta 2/1/08-1/31/12 $43,000
University of Southern California, 120044(ARP38)

SCEC3: Rupture Nucleation and the Evolution of DC

This is a continuation of prior research, goals as follows: 1) to complete our work on the effect of heterogeneities on nucleation and 2) to focus on dynamic ruptures where the effect of heterogeneous strength and stress fields are analyzed in terms of the rupture velocity and slip rate functions that they produce. The first objective will allow us to examine how fracture energy scales as the rupture initially grows. At some point the relevant length scales are likely to come from the correlation lengths found in the strength/stress fields. Exactly how the heterogeneity affects the friction law seems to follow the predictions of Campillo et al. (2001), but this still has be examined further.

Once a rupture is propagating, the correlation lengths of the strength/stress fields looks to be of primary importance. We have already shown that if the fields are strongly correlated, the rupture velocity can range from sub- to super-shear. Whereas if the fields are weakly correlated, the rupture velocity is generally limited to sub-shear.

The dynamics of the rupture, from initiation through completion, forms the basis for earthquake physics. Phenomena from earthquake scaling, spontaneous triggering, crack behavior versus pulse-like to ground motion prediction depend fundamentally on what happens during the spontaneous propagation of a frictional shear fracture. It is only recently that we have had the tools and the computational power to explore the fundamentals of the earthquake process. However, we cannot model the stress heterogeneity on all scales. Thus we must determine an “effective” friction law that accounts for the stress heterogeneity at scales smaller than what can be modeled. Using this effective friction we will explore its consequences on the dynamics of a propagating rupture.

---------------

Ralph Archuleta 2/1/08-1/31/12 $120,000
University of Southern California, 120044(ARP37)

SCEC3: Prediction of Broadband Time Histories

We will continue to improve this new method for predicting broadband ground motion. We propose 4 main tasks:
1)   Use dynamic modeling to get a better understanding of the spatial interdependency between kinematic parameters and selecting parameters that are most suitable for implementation in a kinematic rupture model. In short, we need to select the best possible correlated parameters as input to the kinematic models.
2)   Use a different slip rate function than the one proposed in Liu et al. (2006). Looking at the slip rate functions in the more than 250 dynamic models that we have computed thus far, we find that the slip rate model of Liu et al. (2006) has a different convexity following the peak slip rate than that in Liu et al. (2006).
3)   Implement the new results in the kinematic rupture model generator and repeat the validations. The validations will include both Northridge and Loma Prieta.
4)   Implement new rupture model generator in broadband simulation platform.
We will work on refinement of our rupture model generator based on insights gained from dynamic modeling (Schmedes et al., 2008b). Our current analysis suggests that average rupture velocity and slip show a wide range of positive and negative correlations. Furthermore, slip and local rupture velocity do not seem to be a good parameter pair to use because there is basically no correlation between the two when the rupture attains its larger speeds. This observation is illustrated in Figure 3 (top). We show the joint probability distribution for rupture velocity/shear wave velocity and slip amplitude/ average slip for one of the dynashake shakeout ruptures computed by Steve Day and Luis Dalguer. Once the rupture gained a certain speed there is no dependency of the rupture speed with the slip amplitude. We also observe this in the about 250 dynamic rupture models we have computed so far. Hence, a different parameterization of the kinematic model, for example using correlated peak slip rate and rupture velocity, is necessary.
---------------

Ralph Archuleta 02/01/07-01/31/12 $15,000
University of Southern California- SCEC – 120044 (ARP39)

SCEC3: Hot Faults-Feedbacks in the Earthquake Process (SCEC3 Participation)

Laboratory and field observations suggest that velocity strengthening behavior is pre- dominant during early deformation stages of fault zone evolution, leading to power- law-like Gutenberg Richter (GR) statistics, whereas localized, mature faults exhibit velocity weakening mechanisms, and characteristic-like events (CE) dominate the seis- mic response. A number of numerical studies with a variety of model implementations investigated parameter settings producing frequency-size statistics that correspond to the two end-member cases (GR-CE). Almost exclusively, the governing parameters in these studies are kept constant during single experiments.
Laboratory data suggest an evolution of governing frictional properties with (cu- mulative) offset, sliding velocity, and strain. However, analytical expression of the feedbacks between them and the respective frictional parameters have not yet been derived.
To explore the implications of these feedback mechanisms on seismicity evolution we thus have to parameterize the observations reported in the literature.
These relationships will be used in a numerically efficient 1D BK type nearest neighbour model governed by a simple static/dynamic friction law to investigate seis- micity patterns that correspond to these feedback mechanisms.
First results using a linear time- or strain-rate-dependent ‘wear’ effect on the fric- tional weakening parameter indicate a rather sharp transition in temporal seismicity evolution from power-law- to CE-like frequency size distribution.
The associated transition from immature, disorganized configurations towards more regular, organized structures will be analyzed from the viewpoint of the “Highly Optimized Tolerance” (HOT) concept. HOT focuses on feedback mechanisms respon- sible for system evolution and an increased vulnerability to perturbations, resulting in an respective increased probability of large, devastating events. Because the spe- cific organization or composition of the systems’ constituents play a major role in understanding a system’s performance, HOT makes different implications on the pre- dictability of largest events compared to the criticality concept.
As a consequence of the difference between requested and granted funding, we will not perform complementary dynamic rupture simulations.
---------------

Ralph Archuleta 2/1/09-1/31/12 $30,000
University of Southern California, 120044(ARP41)

SCEC3 Participations:Validation of High Frequency Ground Motion Simulations on the SCEC Broadband Platform

Task 1. Set up validation of the 1994 Northridge earthquake
We validated our simulation methods for the 1994 Northridge earthquake before the Platform was developed. In this task we will set up the validation of our high frequency simulation method for the 1994 Northridge earthquake on the Platform using our simulation method. The Platform will be set up so that other investigators can repeat the validation exercises of these earthquakes on the Platform. URS will provide the following data and metadata: rupture models derived using 3D velocity models, lists of recording stations and their Vs30 values, and generic 1D velocity models.
Task 2. Set up validation of the 1989 Loma Prieta and 1992 Landers earthquakes
We will set up the validation of our high frequency simulation method for the 1989 Loma Prieta and 1992 Landers earthquakes on the Platform. The Platform will be set up so that other investigators can repeat the validation exercises of these earthquakes on the Platform. URS will provide the following data and metadata: rupture models derived using 3D velocity models, lists of recording stations and their Vs30 values, and generic 1D velocity models.
Task 3. Implement improvements to the broadband simulation procedures that have been made since the initial installation of the Broadband Platform
Improvements to the broadband simulation procedures have been made to the procedures that were initially installed on the platform. The improved simulation procedures will be implemented on the Broadband Platform.
Task 4. Separation of ground motion simulation and site response simulation into separate modules in the Broadband Platform
Currently, the strong motion simulation codes incorporate site response in the same module. The site response component needs to placed into a separate module so that the user of the platform can select from alternative site response modules. In due course, additional site response modules from other SCEC investigators such as Assimaki will be added to the platform, but they will not be usable with the broadband simulation methods until this separation is made.
Task 5. Verification of methods for measuring goodness of fit for validation of simulations on the Broadband Platform
Validation of strong motion simulation procedures against strong motion recordings requires measures of goodness of fit. The purpose of this task is to install and test a comprehensive suite of measures of goodness of fit on the platform, to allow the user of the platform to select and use implement their preferred measures in the course of validation exercises. SDSU will take the lead (in a separate contract) in developing these modules for the Platform, and UCSB and URS will review and test the modules.

---------------

Ralph Archuleta 2/1/07-1/31/12 $8,000
University of Southern California, 120044(ARP42)

A Collaborative Project: Rupture Dynamics, Validation of the Numerical Simulation Method.

In 2011 we plan to visit heterogeneous initial stress conditions on a planar vertical fault, TPV18. With classic benchmark TPV5 we have already addressed light stress heterogeneity on a vertical strike-slip fault, but it was so light as to be almost homogeneous. Instead we wish to address the true variability that is envisioned for most faults by earthquake geologists and seismologists. Many members of our SCEC code community participated in a PGE/SCEC workshop in May 2010 where different approaches to assigning heterogeneous initial stress conditions were presented and discussed. Subsequently, a hybrid method has been developed and implemented to assign heterogeneous initial conditions in the limited-PI PGE/SCEC dipping-fault 100-runs project. It is now time that we investigate this heterogeneity topic as an open group exercise. TPV18 is proposed to be an implementation of the a hybrid method, but on a vertical strike-slip fault. It is also hoped that TPV18 will help address some interesting issues that have arisen in the 100-runs project whereby the near-surface results produced by the three assigned codes, although matching well at some of the synthetic ground motion stations, do not match as perfectly as we had originally hoped, for the dipping-fault scenario. By having our entire code group tackle a related benchmark on a vertical fault, we hope that we can solve this problem, and move forward with future heterogeneous initial conditions research and implementation. UCSB will work on only this problem within the Collaborative Project.
---------------

Ralph Archuleta 2/1/07-1/31/12 $20,053
Dylan Rood
University of Southern California, 120044(ARP44)

Evolution of Precariously Balanced Rocks in the Mojave Desert: Constraints on San Andreas Fault Rupture and Hazard Models.

The primary goal of this study is to constrain the evolution (timing and formation rate) and comparative geomorphic development of precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) at two well- characterized but contrasting, sites in the Mojave Desert: one in a region of low seismicity (Granite Pediment) and another (Lovejoy Buttes) with high hazard from numerous large (~M7.5) San Andreas fault (SAF) ruptures. Results from PBRs (ages and fragilities) will directly test seismicity models, ground motion prediction equations, and hazard estimates associated with the 2008 USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHM) and Cybershake.

Detailed work will be conducted in one catchment at each site. Morphometric characteristics of each catchment (e.g. area, slope, hypsometry, channel steepness) will be analyzed using a digital elevation model (DEM) constructed using ground-based LiDAR and differential-GPS survey data (with collaborator B. Bookhagen). 10Be stream sediment samples will allow us to estimate the average denudation rate in each basin where PBRs were exhumed. Saprolite will be sampled near a PBR in each catchment to address the site-specific denudation rate. Detailed profiles will be collected from a total of 5 additional PBRs (3 rocks from Granite Pediment and 2 additional rocks from Lovejoy Buttes) in order to address the timing of PBR exhumation (with collaborator G. Balco). At Granite Pediment, a 10Be sample from a slowly eroding bedrock exposure on the pediment surface will be used to estimate the grain-by-grain rock erosion rate.
Our goal is to compile new and existing shape models, tipping test, 10Be data and VML limiting ages for the Mojave Desert PBRs. We will systematically compare results from (1) 2-D alpha and 3-D overturning probability estimates from shape models with quasi-static toppling accelerations and alpha calculations from force-inclination (tipping) tests, and (2) model 10Be exposure ages with minimum VML ages.
---------------

Ralph Archuleta 2/1/07-1/31/12 $24,000
University of Southern California, 120044(ARP45)

Rupture Dynamics on Sulti-Segment Faults

The basic goals of this research are as following:
1) Calculate multiple earthquake scenarios on a multi-segment fault to understand how the absolute initial stress conditions influence the rupture behavior and the resulting ground motion.
Assigning absolute stress values in the dynamic rupture calculations is controversial. For example, with constant static and dynamic coefficients of friction, one would expect the stress drop to increase with depth if ?N increases with depth —as would be expected because of the lithostatic overburden. However estimates of stress drop show no clear evidence of increasing with depth. We can have nearly constant shear stress as well as stress drop out of uniform normal stress ?N. However, with increasing normal stress ?N along depth we tend to get depth dependent stress drops (Dalguer and Mai, 2010). Previous research (Shearer et al 2006, Allmann and Shearer 2007, Hardebeck 2009) shows that the median stress drop tends to be depth independent for depths as much as 15 km. An approach taken by Aagaard and Heaton (2001) reconciles the depth dependent normal stress and depth independent stress drop by making the friction coefficient depth dependent. Rice (1992) proposed making the effective normal stress constant by allowing the pore pressure to increase linearly with depth. It is likely that the configuration of the initial stress conditions has a pronounced effect on allowing the jump from one fault to another. Both a depth dependent and a depth independent initial stress will be considered. Of course, in both cases the stress will be overprinted stress heterogeneity (Lavallée et al, 2006). 2) Investigate the geometrical conditions (degree of overlapping and step over between adjacent segments) under which a cascading earthquake can occur. Whether an earthquake will be limited to a single fault or will jump over physical boundaries between faults makes a significant difference in the seismic moment and ground motion. To give a more reliable estimate of seismic hazard in areas with multi-segmented faults, we will focus on two parameters: separation distance and overlapping distance between the adjacent fault segments. We will systematically alter these two parameters to quantify the conditions when a rupture jumps from one segment to another. 3) Study the velocity strengthening layer, its depth and its implementation. In rupture dynamics as well as rock physics studies, it is well known that the friction on the fault plane is slip rate dependent (e.g. Dieterich, 1979). Based on laboratory experiments (Blanpied et al., 1991), the upper 3-4 km of the crust would show velocity strengthening. In this zone the friction increases with the slip rate and thus would inhibit slip (Scholz, 1998). Earthquakes such as Morgan Hill, Loma Prieta, Tottori, Parkfield are events with M > 6 but with no obvious co- seismic slip at the surface. There are different ways to mimic the friction in the velocity strengthening zone when using a slip weakening friction law. For example, one can make the critical distance dc infinite in the zone (e.g. Day and Ely, 2002), increase dynamic friction 1coefficient to static coefficient level (e.g., Barall et al, 2010), or make the dynamic friction coefficient velocity dependent (e.g., Aagaard et al, 2004). We will test each of these implementations.
---------------

Ralph Archuleta 2/1/07-1/31/12 $24,000
University of Southern California, 120044(ARP46)

Stress Drop and Source Description for Earthquakes 4 M 5.5 in Southern California.

Systematic evaluation of stress drops for the approximately 65 earthquakes 4.0 < M < 5.5 recorded at BVDA. We will use the BVDA data and the data from the SCEC deployment that coincide with events recorded at BVDA. In doing this we will determine Q(f). We will also try to determine site amplification factors for the SCEC portable stations; we will back out the amplification using BVDA data or by using representative shallow velocity structure measured in Imperial Valley. We will compare stress drops of the aftershocks with those on the San Jacinto to see i) if the same spatial distribution exists as found by Shearer et al. (2006) and ii) if stress drops for 4.0 < M < 5.5 have the same median and variation found for events in other magnitude ranges. We will use the spatial variation of the stress on the northern end (Paso Superior fault) as a proxy for the slip in a finite fault simulation (Schmedes et al., 2010). Our intent is to use an empirical Green’s function approach (Archuleta et al., 2003) to simulate the mainshock ground motion at BVDA. Simulations of the mainshock by Graves and Aagaard (2010) show that the radiated waves are strongly refracted by the velocity structure causing focusing in the region near BVDA as opposed to the expected strong directivity along strike. This may explain why the spectrum of the El Mayor mainshock at BVDA is amplified and its corner frequency much higher than expected.
---------------

Ralph Archuleta 07/01/03-08/31/12 $98,501
Jamison Steidl
COSMOS- 2003-02(ARR01)

COSMOS Virtual Data Center

Andrew Ballantine 01/5/07-01/26/12 $59,895
US Geological Survey- 07CRSA0146BAP02)

Inventory of North American Dust Sources.

This project will focus on the synthesis of data bearing on North American dust-source areas and will provide documentation of major dust storms that have occurred within the past decade. The data synthesis includes collaborations on interpretations of conditions that promote or suppress dust emission. The end result will be a database that can be searched by a range of key variables such as date of event, location, geographic region, likely source landform, etc. As an essential component of this work, each source type will be classified by landform (e.g., playa, loess deposit, outwash plain, etc.) to help identify the role of geomorphology and soils in dust emissions at the regional scale. The type of weather event generating the dust storm will also be identified to aid in the prediction of dust events based on their atmospheric drivers.
---------------

Jim Boles 2/1/10-1/31/12 $193,680
Department of Energy, DE-SC0003676(BJD02)

Fault-Related CO2 Degassing, Geothermics, & Fluid FLow in Southern California Basins---Physiochemical Evidence & Modeling

In this renewal proposal, we advance our studies of the geohydrology and geochemistry of active faults and young petroleum reservoirs in southern California, including the South Ellwood field in the Santa Barbara basin (SBB), the Newport-Inglewood Fault zone (NIFZ) in the Los Angeles basin, and the Lost Hills field in the San Joaquin basin (SJB). Subsurface core samples, outcrop samples, well logs, reservoir properties, pore pressures, thermal gradients, fluid compositions and structural-seismic sections are being studied to characterize the geohydrologic/diagenetic history and degree of compartmentalization for these known fault networks in a transpressional tectonic setting. We are also investigating the isotopic and trace elements signatures in calcium carbonate minerals, including vaterite, that characterizes rapid CO2 degassing, as observed in scales from production well tubing in several petroleum and geothermal reservoirs. These data provide the constraints for our geohydrologic models that are being developed to predict fluid pressures, multiphase fluid saturations, rates and patterns of deformation and fluid flow, subsurface temperature, geothermal heat flow, and fluid geochemistry associated with large fault systems. In past DOE-sponsored research, we mathematically modeled reactions associated with the transport of petroleum SBB-sourced methane and meteoric groundwater mixing in faulted submarine reservoirs, which are partially uplifted along coastal Santa Barbara. This fluid mixing simulation resulted in carbonate mineralization along the Carneros-Refugio fault, as observed in outcrops. We have also recently developed basin-scale models that incorporate coupled processes of poroelastic deformation and fluid flow, as well as field-scale models of multiphase flow for the NIFZ and Long Beach fields. Applications of the discrete element deformation model RICEBAL (as developed by J.K. Morgan, Rice University) are underway, and these will allow us to predict the opening and closing of fault conduits as the sedimentary basins undergo extension and contraction/inversion within the California plate boundary regions. We are also currently developing a new coupled flow-heat-poroelastic deformation model, TUFTS2D-FE, and a multiphase flow model, TUFTS2D-FV, and reactive flow applications for the NIFZ in the Los Angeles basin. There are plans for new industry-funded drilling of this fault zone in 2010, and if successful we will have access to remarkable core samples and borehole geology. This renewal proposal requests support for additional 3 years of work, and details the field and modeling studies scheduled for these fascinating faults, reservoirs, and sedimentary basins. Our past collaborative research has been very productive, and this new work will make new and important geologic contributions to understanding the leakage behavior of active faults in sedimentary basins. As these types of reservoirs become the primary targets for anthropogenic carbon sequestration, we feel we are making fundamental contributions to science and an important contribution to society.

---------------

Bodo Bookhagen 9/1/09-8/31/11 $60,000
G. Fisher
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NNX09AO24H(BBN01)

ASTER-Derived River Widths and Spatial Implications for Erosion in the Tectonically Active Himalaya.

The work funded by this fellowship incorporates remotely sensed, field, and numerical analyses to understand how river widths scale as a function of precipitation and tectonic regime within the world’s largest mountain belt, the Himalaya. The role that bedrock-channel incision plays in the evolution of tectonically active mountain belts has become a central topic in tectonic-geomorphology over the last two decades and has lead to the development of the stream power law, which directly links erosional efficacy per unit area of the channel bed to discharge, slope, specific weight of water, and channel-width. Previous studies have relied on simple power-law scalings to estimate channel-widths based on discharge, while more sophisticated techniques have recently been proposed that are based on regionally limited data and/or contain fundamental underlying assumptions that preclude their ubiquitous application. Our research improves on previous studies of channel width scalings in orogenic systems by calibrating spatially ubiquitous ASTER imagery with higher resolution Google Earth imagery (GeoEye-1 and SPOT) and field surveys to yield reliable sub-pixel mixing models for application to width-extraction algorithms for the Himalaya. These channel widths will then be combined with ASTER GDEM topography (slopes), TRMM precipitation data (discharge), and MODIS imagery (snowcover and evapotranspiration values) into a specific stream power analysis (proxy for erosion) for the Himalaya. This work has implications for both the spatial heterogeneity of erosional foci across the Himalaya as well as the long-term evolution of tectonically active landscapes.
---------------

Douglas Burbank 1/1/10-12/31/11 $57,838
Department of Interior, G10AP00015(BDU02)

Temporal Patterns of Fault Slip Rates on the Genoa Fault

A deeper understanding of the temporal and spatial dynamics of faults and the associated seismicity requires knowledge of the timing, rate, and spatial variation of tectonic processes that control the deformation. A fundamental assumption that underpins many brittle crustal deformation models is that tectonic rates are steady once integrated across a sufficient number of seismic events. Short-term interseismic deformation rates are commonly assumed to be constant across time and space and, therefore, can be used to predict long-term deformation patterns. We know that this assumption may well be inaccurate on million-year time scales, but the “steady rate” assumption remains largely untested at shorter time scales. Thus, a tantalizing but unanswered question persists:

• Do deformation rates accelerate and decelerate at scales of 102 to 105 years?

Using an integrated geomorphic-paleoseismic-geodetic approach, our team proposes to focus on answering this question in a spatially-restricted and well-mapped region where we can quantify a record of fault-related deformation over the past 103-105 yr along the Genoa fault at the eastern boundary of the central Sierra Nevada, California-Nevada. The Genoa fault is experiencing some of the highest strain rates and fastest Holocene slip rates in the western Great Basin. Whereas this fault has been the site of at least two pre-historic Holocene earthquakes M>7, its long-term slip rate history is poorly known. Over 10- to 200-ky time scales, our proposed geomorphic approach is to quantify fault displacements of multiple geomorphic features, including glacial outwash terraces and alluvial fans, and to determine the age of those features using cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) exposure dating techniques. By comparing offsets of different ages along individual fault segments and modeling their slip rates, we will define how the locus, magnitude, and rate of fault slip changes through time.

Paleoseismic trench studies (funded by NEHRP through our FY09 proposal) will reduce uncertainty concerning how these geomorphic offsets are produced by fault rupture. Presently funded paleoseismic excavations and mapping were an appropriate first step in constraining strain in this region, and this trench data will offer a unique opportunity to compare timing of earthquake events, displacement magnitude/event, and geometry of underlying faults to the slip-rates calculated from offset geomorphic features (proposed in this study) on the southern segment of the Genoa fault. By integrating geologic and paleoseismic datasets, we will be able to investigate what frequency and magnitudes of earthquake rupture were required to build observed geomorphic offsets. These data will be compared to modern geodetic deformation rates from a dense local GPS network in order to test models of the earthquake cycle.

Despite numerous past studies, the 104-105 yr time span has been poorly explored due either to the paucity of dating techniques with sufficient resolution in this interval or to the absence of datable materials. CRN dating of surface boulders and depth profiles will allow more accurate, high-resolution chronologies to be developed for numerous geomorphic features that are deformed by active faults in this temporal (104-105 yr) window. This proposal intentionally focuses on field sites where slip rates are modest (generally 1-3 mm/yr). In such a region, the use of multiple displaced markers with high-resolution dates will permit a robust discrimination of temporal changes in fault behavior. On rapidly moving faults, temporal resolution is typically insufficient to unambiguously discriminate among such geomorphic displacement rates. Our late Quaternary data will synthesized with Holocene paleoseismic (102-103 yr) and modern geodetic rates in this same region, thereby providing tests of key assumptions about the temporal constancy of slip rates.
---------------

Douglas Burbank 1/16/08-1/15/13 $253,439
National Aeronautics & Space Administration, 05-ESI/05-0014(BDF03)

Quantification of Climate-Erosion Coupling in the Himalaya

This proposal addresses the NASA scientific challenge of "How do tectonics and climate interact to shape the Earth's surface and create natural hazards? " Overall, we propose to combine remotely sensed data with field-based and laboratory analyses to understand how climate and tectonics combine to create landscapes and natural hazards in active collisional mountain belts and to define how variations in climate influence landscape character and processes. Our study will be conducted in the Himalaya and is focused on these goals: to explore potential linkages between climate, erosion, and tectonics in a very active collision almountain belt; to define spatial and temporal variations in monsoonal precipitation along and across strike as a function of both topography and typical storm tracks; to quantify erosion-ratevariationsat10^3-to10^6-yr time scales both along and across strike; to examine topographic characteristics that may be responsive to changes in climate, erosion rate, and erosion process; and to determine the correlation between precipitation events and land slide hazards in remote mountains. Our research "tools" include: SRTM topography for the Himalaya and adjacent areas (with gaps filled), existing and forth coming TRMM precipitation data at high spatial resolution (5km), ASTER imagery, (U-Th)/Hedating of detritalapatite, and cosmogenic nuclide concentrations in detrital sediments within the Himalaya. Previous data indicate that a long-strike variations in erosion exist, but are poorly quantified in the Himalaya. Helium dating of apatite and measurement of cosmogenic nuclide concentrations will enable us to estimate erosion at two very different time scales. These data will then be interpreted in the context of: the TRMM precipitation data and its variations along and across the Himalaya; topographic variations along the range; and model edindices of erosion that integrate rain fall, topography, and erosion models. Furthermore, repeat ASTER imagery will be used to identify large land slides, define spatial variations in land slide size and frequency, and examine the correlations of these spatial variations with rain fall and topographic anomalies. This project's significance resides in three aspects. First, we will develop some of the highest resolution data that has ever generated for large mountain belt with respect to relationships among erosion, climate, and topography. Second, the integration and numerical exploration of these data will permit us to quantify the controls on erosion and the relationship of climate to climate on long and short timescales. Such studies are crucial for understanding how climate and tectonic interact to shape the landscape. Third, we will be able to make statistical predictions of land slide hazards as a function of different rain fall scenarios in various regions of the Himalaya. This last contribution will directly affect societal risk assessment in the serugged mountains.
---------------

Douglas Burbank 9/15/09-9/14/11 $23,500
National Geographic Society, 8685-09(BDP02)

Controls on Deformation of the Kyrgyz Tien Shan.

What controls patterns of active faulting in compressional orogens? Rapid Cenozoic convergence within the Tien Shan of Kyrgyzstan has produced clear evidence for episodic shifting of the loci of faulting from the bedrock-bounded margins of sedimentary basins to their interiors. This observation is consistent with predictions of analogue and numerical models in which active deformation is modulated by erosion or addition of topographic loads [Harris et al., 1995; Simpson, 2004; Tucker and Slingerland, 1996; Turpeinen et al., 2008]. Analogue models predict that removal of mass from hanging walls by erosion and addition of mass to footwalls by sedimentation serve to retard the formation of new faults within a basin [Hoth et al., 2006]. Numerical models similarly predict that erosion above a fault can promote fault activity by decreasing the normal stress across the fault [Hilley et al., 2005; Simpson, 2006]. Other numerical studies indicate that, without removal of sedimentary fill by river networks, closed basins can persist with little internal deformation for long periods of time [Sobel, 2003].
We propose to address some of the key controls on changes in patterns of deformation within actively deforming contractional ranges. We pose the following questions:
• Under what conditions do former intermontane basins become sites of active, localized deformation?
• When deformation migrates from the basin margin to its interior, are the new faults juvenile structures that rupture the underlying basement or are they low-angle structures, such as decollements, that are linked to the basin marginal faults?
• When a basin narrows as basin-bounding thrusts impinge across its margins, do rates of shortening decrease and does the loci of deformation shift into other basins?
We hypothesize that migration of deformation into former depocenters is modulated by erosional evacuation and unloading of basins, and that as a basin is zippered closed by thrusts, the loads of the marginal ranges decrease the magnitude of deformation within the basin itself.

---------------

Douglas Burbank 9/1/05-8/31/11 $408,674
National Science Foundation, 0507431(BDN07)

Collaborative Research: Upward and Outward: Tibetan Plateau Growth and Climatic Consequences

This proposal responds to the SESWG scientific challenge of “How do tectonics and climate interact to shape the Earth’s surface and create natural hazards?” Overall, we are combining remotely sensed data with field-based and laboratory analyses to understand how climate and tectonics combine to create landscapes and natural hazards in active collisional mountain belts and to define how variations in climate influence landscape character and processes. We are integrating existing SRTM topography, existing and forthcoming TRMM precipitation data, ASTER imagery, (U-Th)/He dating of detrital apatite, and cosmogenic nuclide concentrations in detrital sediments within the Himalaya in order to:
•   to explore potential linkages between climate, erosion, and tectonics in a very active collisional mountain belt;
•   to define spatial and temporal variations in monsoonal precipitation along and across strike as a function of both topography and typical storm tracks;
•   to quantify erosion-rate variations at 103- to 106-yr scales both along and across strike;
•   to examine topographic characteristics that may be responsive to changes in climate, erosion rate, and erosion process; and
•   to determine the correlation between precipitation events and landslide hazards in remote mountains.
---------------

Douglas Burbank 08/01/08-07/31/12 $280,000
National Science Foundation, 0819874(BDN09)

Collaborative Research: Orogeny, orography, and unsteady erosion: evolution of the Himalaya

Many aspects of climate-erosion-tectonic interactions remain unresolved. This research attempts to understand how Himalayan rates of erosion vary as a function of space and time and what drives such changes. Some detrital cooling-age data suggest that, irrespective of how spatially irregular erosion may be at short time scales, erosion rates become much steadier at longer time scales. This research will test that contention. The PIs hypothesize that, at decadal to millennial scales, spatial variations in rainfall distributions modulate differences in erosion rates. Specific stream power (the product of discharge and channel gradient) is hypothesized to provide a reliable proxy for modern erosion rates. To underpin tests of these hypotheses, the PIs have developed and calibrated the highest resolution, remotely sensed data on rainfall currently available for the Himalaya. When combined with digital topography, rainfall is routed through the Himalayan landscape and predicts pronounced along-strike variations in stream power. To test whether stream power successfully predicts variations in erosion rates, the PIs will collect 50 detrital cosmogenic nuclide samples within 10 catchments that exhibit strong contrasts in stream power. With judicious placement of sampling sites, this large new data set should also permit testing of a much-debated question: is the rate of erosion controlled by large trunk rivers or by the erosive power of much smaller catchments (<20 km2) that cover most of the landscape?

In order to assess the extent to which erosion rates change at longer time scales, the PIs will collect relief transects of bedrock samples in each of the CRN-sampled catchments and will measure ~100 cooling ages each for apatite, zircon, and muscovite, representing closure temperatures of ~80°, ~200°, and ~375°C, respectively. Reflecting different times and depths of cooling, these ages will be analyzed using thermokinematic models to create reliable reconstructions of temporal changes in erosion rates at each of 10 catchments.

Furthermore, the PIsÕ current analysis suggests that topographic relief exerts a fundamental control on the distribution of Himalayan rainfall and that valleys of large rivers “guide” moisture into the orogen. At time scales for which Himalayan topography and climate are “constant”, spatial variations in rainfall, stream power, and, hence, erosion are, therefore, envisioned to remain steady. The Himalayas, however, are an active collisional orogen in which rocks advect laterally faster than they move vertically. The PIs hypothesize that topography also advects laterally, especially in the rain shadow north of the Himalayan peaks where erosion rates appear lower. Moreover, this advection is hypothesized to cause major re-organization of Himalayan drainages and related topography. If so, new avenues for rainfall to move into the orogen will open, old ones will close, and, as a consequence, new patterns of erosion should emerge. As advection leads to stream capture and creation of new Transhimalayan rivers with greatly enhanced erosive power, other trunk channels will be beheaded, thereby losing power. Such changes in stream power should be expressed by changes in both erosion rates and topographic relief. The PIs propose to test these novel ideas by reconstructing changes in topographic relief using bedrock cooling ages both from their relief transects and from equal-elevation transects. Such dynamic Transhimalayan channels would stand in contrast to the persistence of rivers at the Himalayan “indentor corners”. Despite the challenges presented by Himalayan landscapes, they provide a propitious setting: stark lateral variations exist in rainfall, erosion, and topography; cooling ages are almost ubiquitously reset, and strong signals of differential erosion should rise above the inevitable geomorphic and tectonic noise.

---------------

Douglas Burbank 7/1/09-6/30/12 $282,370
National Science Foundation, 0838265(BDN10)

Controls on growth of the Puna Plateau, NW Argentina

Both the mechanisms of growth of orogenic plateaus and the processes that control or limit their growth remain controversial. Within currently active orogens, only two large-scale orogenic plateaus have developed during Cenozoic times. At the broadest scale, their growth has been driven by sustained plate convergence. If such convergence continues into the future, will these plateaus continue to expand? What controls whether they reach a stable size, continuously expand, or begin to shrink or collapse? This proposal focuses on the limits to outward growth of plateaus and the interplay between tectonic forcing and erosion that modulates changes in plateau margins. We focus on one mode of plateau growth: synchronous growth of thrust-related ranges with filling of high, ponded intermontane basins that is hypothesized to be favored during times of relative aridity. The enhanced crustal loads represented by the basin-range couplet are proposed to drive outward propagation of deformation.

Whereas this concept is not new, few studies have tested the synchrony of thrusting, basin filling, and climate change. Little is known of the rates at which these processes occur or of the trade-offs that develop as climate and tectonics conspire to modulate active thrusting, aggradation, and erosion. Do rates of fault slip regulate base level and control when internal versus external drainages prevail? Or, do changes in regional climate cause significant variations in rates of erosion and basin filling that, in turn, influence slip on nearby thrust faults? Do intermontane aggradational intervals correspond with times of outward propagation of the thrust belt, or is increased aridity a key control, or both? How do the style, pace, and rate of thrusting respond to pulses of sediment loading and removal?

The answers to these questions will place valuable constraints on the viability of this “range and basin” model for plateau growth. Any test of the model requires excellent time control on a clearly delineated depositional and erosional history of intermontane basins and of the growing ranges to which they are potentially linked. We propose a study along the NE margin of the Puna Plateau and the adjacent Eastern Cordillera of NW Argentina. This region lies astride an abrupt climatic boundary and boasts multiple generations of late Cenozoic thrusting and basin filling and emptying. Successive faults overthrust alluvial strata and are then buried by younger gravels. Perhaps most importantly, numerous volcanic ashes are preserved within the basin fills, as well as within strata that are intricately interbedded with stacked sequences of thrust faults. These ashes promise to permit unprecedentedly tight time control on the growth and decay of this dynamic plateau margin and will underpin a detailed reconstruction of the interplay of range growth, evolving fluvial networks, and multiple cycles of basin filling and emptying. Ultimately, a new, temporally constrained view of the plateau margin will emerge from this study.

The data collected in this study will permit us to assess the following hypotheses: 1) Range-building by active thrusting is coeval with aggradation in the intermontane basin on the hinterland side of the faults and is promoted by drier climatic conditions; 2) Outward growth of plateau margin can be stalled by breaching and erosion of intermontane basin-filling sequences; 3) Erosion of an intermontane-basin fill causes hinterland-stepping thrusting to restore topographic taper; and 4) A strengthened monsoon drives enhanced erosion and is temporally coincident with the breaching of intermontane basin fills.

Our research effort will delineate the thrust-controlled growth of the Eastern Cordillera and the history of intermontane basin-filling in two basins that straddle the Puna Plateau’s margin. When synthesized with new chronologic data, these will permit testing of the synchrony (or lack thereof) of changes in regional paleoclimate with changes in tectonics, sedimentation, and erosion across the plateau margin.
---------------

Cathy Busby 7/15/07-6/30/12 $257,748
National Science Foundation, 0711181(BCN03)

Geological Constraints on Landscape Evolution of the Sierra Nevada, California: Paleochannels, Magmatism and Structure

The Sierra Nevada is the longest and tallest mountain chain in the coterminous U.S. and has long been considered among the youngest. The age and uplift history of the Sierra are currently the subject of geologic debate by workers using a variety of data sources and analytical tools, including U-Th-He thermochronology, fission track analyses, paleobotanical studies, dating of cave sediments, oxygen isotope analysis of authigenic minerals, and analysis of relict landscape. This study will address the following questions: (1) What can Tertiary strata preserved in paleochannels tell us about the evolution of the central Sierran landscape, and how does its evolution compare with the rest of the range? (2) What can Neogene volcanic and intrusive rocks centers in the central Sierra Nevada tell us about the paleogeographic and tectonic evolution of the Tertiary Ancestral Cascades arc? (3) When did Neogene range-front faulting begin in the central Sierra Nevada, what is its nature, and has it proceeded continuously or episodically? Faults at the Sierra Nevada - Basin and Range boundary are important for determining the kinematic boundary conditions for transtensional deformation in the Walker Lane Belt.

Detailed mapping in crestal areas of the central Sierra, where Tertiary strata are abundant, will concentrate on areas with excellent exposure, and mappable, dateable, unaltered volcanic stratigraphy, described here. Field work will include detailed mapping of volcanic-volcaniclastic lithofacies, paleocanyon boundaries, bedrock structure, and faults using satellite images, air photos, and digital terrain models at various scales, compiled in ARC-GIS with GPS data. Standard basin analysis techniques will be applied, including paleocurrent analysis, measurement of sections, documentation of key stratigraphic and structural relationships on photomosaics, and construction of fence diagrams and cross sections that illustrate stratigraphic relationships across canyons. Age controls will be provided by 39Ar/40Ar geochronology on volcanic rocks, and petrographic and geochemical analysis of volcanic rocks will strengthen lithologic correlations.
---------------

Cathy Busby 3/15/11-5/31/13 $226,036
National Science Foundation, EAR-1019559(BCN04)

Steady State to Flare-Up ARC Magmatism in the Largest Cenozoic Silicic Igneous Province on Earth: The Sierra Madre Occidental (Mexico)

This project will carry on with the laboratory and collaborative components of our work. This “proof of concept” study will gather results to evaluate the feasibility of developing this project more robustly in the future. The revised work plan will enable us to continue to push forward our work in this very important and very poorly known region. It will allow us to continue an ongoing, very committed collaboration with Mexican colleagues from UNAM, Luca Ferrari (since 2007) and Elena Centeno-Garcia (since 2005). The research is as follows:
1. We will digitally compile and synthesize all previous available work, including unpublished maps and field data held by McDowell at UT Austin, and integrate it with the new results obtained by this study (see below). We will then interpret these data in the context of rapidly-evolving models for the origin of silicic large igneous provinces, and publish our findings. This will enable us to move forward with a well informed field plan once the security situation improves in Chihuahua.
2. We will perform Hf, O and U-Pb isotopic analysis of zircons from several sites in the northern SMO, to gain insight into the origin of the magmas in this world-class silicic large igneous province. This work will be done in close collaboration with Luca Ferrari, who is doing the same kind of work on his samples from the southern SMO, with Scott Bryan. Ferrari is very interested in this work, and is giving us a very good price to do the Hf and U-Pb analytical work at Juriquilla; the total comes to about half the in-house rate for Busby at UCSB, and substantially less than the rate posted on the University of Arizona website. In addition, a UCSB Senior Honors Thesis student (to be named) will carry out textural and modal analysis of thin sections, and interpret new geochemical data we will gather on pumices from the ignimbrites, as well as whole rock analyses of lava flows and intrusions.
---------------

Cathy Busby 8/1/09-12/31/11 $12,489
University of California, SB100022(BCS02)

Transition from Steady state to flare-up arc magmatism in the largest cenozoic sillicic igneous and epitheral deposit on earth: Sierra Madre Occidental (Mexico)

The Sierra Madre Occidental is one of the most inaccessible, poorly understood, and richest gold and silver mining areas of the world. These mineral deposits formed in one of the largest supervolcano fields in Earth history. Recent improvement in access, in part due to a new gold rush, makes it possible to produce the first geologic maps of a large sector of this province, and date the volcanic and intrusive rocks. This will allow us to understand the eruptive processes and feeder types that may be unique to supervolcanoes, and to determine the conditions that givebirth to them. The SMO supervolcano field represents Earth’s most well preserved silicic large igneous province; there, high-silica magmas were repeatedly erupted in extremely large volumes (>1,000 cubic kilometers) through highly explosive eruptions. Magmatism in the SMO represents the precursor of lithospheric rupture that eventually led to the formation of the Gulf of California. Professors Cathy Busby (UC Santa Barbara) and Elena Centeno Garcia (UNAM) and a graduate student from each of their own universities will work together to carry out frontier research in this important province, by making mugeologic maps, and obtaining the first age dates on a large region.
---------------

Jean Carlson 02/01/07-01/31/12 23,000
University of Southern California – SCEC-120044(CXP02)

SCEC3: Rapid Weakening due to Fault Gouge Localization: Constitutive Laws, Rupture Dynamics and Ground Motion

The project addresses short-term SCEC research objectives in Fault and Rock Mechanics and Ground Motion (A8, A10, and B1) by developing physically-based constitutive laws featuring rapid velocity weakening, and elucidating their impact on rupture dynamics, faulting energy balance, and ground motion away from the fault. Gaining a better physical understanding of friction models will aid long-term SCEC objective in constraining Earthquake Source Physics, and will better inform models of fault system dynamics. Accurate predictions of the dynamics of both single ruptures and networks of faults are essential to understanding how future seismic events may impact Southern California.

Statement of Work:
Constitutive Laws
* Analyze the dynamics of a physics-based, microscopic model for fault gouge that localizes under shear strain
* Develop a novel constitutive law based on this analysis that exhibits velocity weakening
* Compare the stability and dynamics of this new constitutive law to others, including Lemaitre’s boundary lubrication model and the Dieterich Ruina friction law

Dynamic Rupture Modeling
* Test new friction laws developed from microscopic models in spontaneous, continuum dynamic rupture calculations to explore how they weaken with slip and velocity, their rupture mode (crack vs. pulse), and the associated event complexity of ruptures.
* Study how new friction laws balance stored elastic energy between fracture, frictional dissipation, and radiated seismic energy.
* Model high frequency ground motion produced by improved earthquake source models, and assess how such models can improve source models used in physics-based hazard analysis.
---------------

Jean Carlson 02/01/07-01/31/12 $15,000
University of Southern California- SCEC-120044(CXP03)

SCEC3: Resolution of Kinematic Source Models

This project addresses uncertainty in the inverse earthquake problem. Using methods from robust control theory [Dullerus and Paganini, 2005], this project develops bounds on source characteristics by defining and solving a series of optimization problems which maximize the information extracted from seismic inversions and determine which features are well-constrained by the data. Quantifying uncertainty in kinematic inversions is necessary in order to interpret the variability and features seen in source models. While kinematic inversions provide direct images of the seismic source, the robust features of these images are not well known. A thorough treatment of the consequences of uncertain models and statistical correlations in seismic inversions is necessary in order to characterize the inherent variability of the seismic process.

This project will accomplish the following tasks:
a) Resolution analysis of the Parkfield GPS data will be extended to the fully nonlinear inversion of the strong motion data. b) Synthetic tests will be used to test how well the linearized resolution bounds apply to the nonlinear inversion. In addition to helping us better constrain the true error bounds of the nonlinear inversion, this will gauge how strongly the nonlinear constraints reduce the model space. c) We will investigate how well bootstrapping performs in fully nonlinear inversions. In previous work we have found that bootstrapping underestimates the uncertainty in underdetermined linear problems, but it is not clear in what way a nonlinear search algorithm will change this result. d) We will identify biases that can result due to the inversion procedure itself. For example, the generalized inverse approach can generate apparent structure that is not real due to non-diagonal terms in the resolution matrix.
---------------

Jean Carlson 2/1/07-1/31/2012 $22,000
University of Southern California, 120044(CJ2P04)

SCEC3 Participation: Dynamic Fault Weakening due to Shear Strain Localization: Constitutive Laws, Rupture Dynamics, and Ground Motion

This work fits SCEC3 objectives A4, A10, and B1. Objective A4 calls for statistical analysis and mapping of source parameters with an emphasis on their relation to known faults. Our project focuses on better understanding the statistical correlations between possible models of slip (and therefore stress change) on the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault. Also, Objective A10 describes the development of statistical descriptions of heterogeneities over multiple earthquake cycles. Indeed, the Parkfield segment is ideal for studying the earthquake cycle, as data from multiple moderately sized earthquakes have been recorded there. It is necessary to know the error in inversion methods in order to determine to what extent the Parkfield earthquake are “characteristic”. Finally, Objective B1 asks for the development of kinematic rupture scenarios consistent with observations. Our project seeks to better describe this large solution space that is consistent with observations (as opposed to selecting only a few arbitrary models from this space).
---------------

Jean Carlson 2/1/09-1/31/12 $25,000
University of Southern California, 120044(CJ2P05)

SCEC3 Participation: Shear Strain Localization in Dynamic Earthquake Rupture: Shear Heating, Dynamic Weakening, and Slip Below the Seismogenic Zone

Constitutive Laws and Thermal Heating
* Determine how frictional dissipation during seismic slip is distributed between
configurational entropy and thermal heating
* Add thermal weakening mechanisms to STZ Theory to determine how localization and thermal heating in concert influence rupture propagation
Slip Below the Seismogenic Zone
* Extend models of earthquake slip to include dynamic formation of shear bands in a rate strengthening region below the seismogenic zone
*Study discrete block-slider models that represent distinct rheological layers in the crust
by blocks connected by springs
* Model slip in the lower crust using spontaneous elastodynamic ruptures, with constitutive parameters that transition from rate weakening to rate strengthening continuously
*Determine the contribution of the lower crust to the overall slip in earthquake rupture
---------------

Jean Carlson 2/1/07-1/31/12 $21,000
Jim Langer
Ralph Archuleta
University of Southern California, 120044(CJ2P07)

Multi-Statistical Theories for Frictional Weakening and Variability in Earthquakes.

This project will accomplish the following tasks:
*Extension of STZ constitutive laws describing plasticity to include additional geophysical mechanisms for dissipation such as material evolution and wear.
* Inclusion of a broad spectrum of trapping energies and transition rates in STZ theory to capture inherent variability arising from the broad range of grain sizes in fault gouge.
* Resolution of dynamics, which arise from these constitutive laws to obtain predictive results for dissipation and fracture from laboratory to tectonic scales.
* Analysis of energy balance and thermal heating during large earthquakes based on general thermodynamic principles as well as specific information regarding the materials and failure mechanisms that occur in faults.
---------------

Jean Carlson 2/1/10-1/31/12 $20,000
Jim Langer
Ralph Archuleta
University of Southern California, 20110062(CJ2P06)

Earthquake Dynamics with STZ Friction: A Statistical Physics Approach to Dynamic Weakening, Energy Partitioning, and Fault Evolution.

This project will accomplish the following tasks:
• An analysis of energy balance and thermal heating during large earthquakes. This will be based on general thermodynamic principles as well as more specific information regarding the materials and failure mechanisms that occur in faults.
• Incorporation of additional geophysical mechanisms in the STZ friction law. These include material fracture and evolution of the gouge as well as changes in material properties due to thermal heating.
• Investigations of STZ theory in the presence material gradients and heterogeneity in the earth and analogous laboratory scale composites. Analysis will include investigations of how the velocity-strengthening lower crust interacts with ruptures initiated in the seismogenic zone. Methods include analysis of long lived transient dynamical instabilities, which may be overlooked in traditional steady state analysis.
• Investigation of fault heterogeneity and the dynamics of pinning centers. This builds on recent work on dislocation dynamics at explosively large driving forces, where a thermodynamic analysis for dislocations has shown that the observable strain rate is determined by the strength of the forces that pin dislocations.

---------------

Leila Carvalho 8/1/10-7/31/11 $113,229
Charles Jones
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NA10OAR4310170(CLB01)

An Integrated View of the American Monsoon Systems: Observations, Models and Probabilistic Forecasts.

This project focuses on the interactions between the North American Monsoon System (NAMS) and South American Monsoon System (SAMS) and identification of common sources and limits of summer season predictability. The main theme of this proposal is to develop a unified view of the American Monsoon System (AMS). The project evaluates the ability of global models from the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) to simulate the variability of the AMS in the present climate. The project is comprised of four interconnected main goals. First, the project will investigate the extent to which the annual evolution of NAMS and SAMS and their temporal variability on ISI time scales can be represented with metrics that effectively describe changes in precipitation and atmospheric circulation in the Americas. Second, this will identify regional physical processes and teleconnections that control the interactions between NAMS and SAMS. Third, this project will evaluate the skill of WCRP CMIP coupled models in representing the observed variations in the AMS. Lastly, this project will implement diagnostic monitoring tools, identify sources of potential predictability and develop probabilistic forecasts of the AMS on subseasonal to seasonal scales.
Specific objectives are:
I. Develop and validate indices for a unified approach to monitor and forecast the variability of the monsoon systems in the Americas.
II. Investigate the associations between the two monsoon systems, the importance of regional processes and remote atmosphere-ocean variations on intraseasonal-to-interannual (ISI) time scales in explaining these linkages.
III. Examine the degree to which simulations from the WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-3 and CMIP-5) realistically represent the AMS and associations between the monsoons in the Americas.
IV. Use NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) model outputs (reforecasts and operational) to develop probabilistic forecasts of the American Monsoon Systems on subseasonal to seasonal lead times. Identify potential predictability sources of the AMS on ISI time scales.
---------------

Leila Carvalho 07/01/11-06/30/12 $30,000
Charles Jones
National Science Foundation, AGS-1126804(CLF01)

Decadal Variability of the American Monsoons: An Assessment of CMIP5 Simulations.

The main goals of this RAPID project are to: 1) develop an extensive assessment of how realistic simulations from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are in representing the observed characteristics of the American Monsoon Systems (AMS) in the recent past and 2) assess uncertainties in projected decadal climate changes in the AMS. The specific objectives are to:
I. Assess the skill of CMIP5 model simulations in representing the climatological and statistical characteristics of the monsoons in the Americas including: circulation and precipitation features, subseasonal variance, onsets and demises, amplitudes and cross equatorial transitions.
II. Determine which CMIP5 models realistically represent the spatiotemporal variability of the monsoons in the present climate including near-term trends, frequency of very dry/wet seasons and statistical distributions of extreme precipitation events.
III. Examine which CMIP5 models skillfully represent the observed relationships between remote forcings and the American monsoons. These include the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), Atlantic Ocean and Intra-Americas Sea forcings.
IV. Explore how much of the climate changes projected for the next decades in the Americas are explained by natural decadal variability and how much by greenhouse gases increases.
---------------

Leila Carvalho 4/15/10-3/31/12 $50,000
Charles Jones
USAID, SB100085(CLP01)

Statistical Physics Climatic Downscaling: Combining Wavelet, Multifractal and Neural Network Approaches in a Unified Scaling Methodology.

The specific research problem addressed by this study is the development of a downscaling model based on wavelet-multifractal and artificial neural network approaches to generate climate data at appropriate temporal (daily) and spatial (20 Km) scales using global circulation model outputs. Although computational performances have increased exponentially in the last few years, there are still strong limitations in global climate modeling in simulating regional processes on short spatial and temporal time-scales. As of today, most Global Climate Models (GCMs) have typical horizontal resolution of 150-300 km with 30-50 vertical layers. Much of the improved computational resources have been used to incorporate more sophisticated physical parameterizations, interactive earth system components, and ensemble simulations of extended lengths. To date, major model biases remain in global climate simulations that limit their ability to provide climate information with sufficient reliability and spatial specificity for societal use. Perhaps the most persistent and pervasive biases are related to the representation of the hydrological cycle. Consequences of an inaccurate hydrological cycle in fully coupled GCM simulations of the climate system are far reaching, since water integrates the physical, biological, and chemical components. Most climate change projections are currently based on models that simulate coupled atmospheric and oceanic processes on coarse resolutions. Among the most important impacts of regional-scale predictions of climate changes is on food production and security. Simulations on regional scales of precipitation and temperature are absolutely crucial to understand how global warming will affect fresh water storage and the ability to grow potato, wheat, corn, and other staples. Dynamical regional model simulations using GCMs as boundary conditions have been largely applied but challenges in this area still abounds. In some cases, improvements to GCMs are considered marginal given the necessary computational efforts. The objective of the present work is to develop a downscaling statistical model based on wavelet-multifractal and artificial neural network approaches. The focus of this analysis will be on South America and on the regional modeling of temperature and precipitation. More specifically, our objectives are:
1) Implement some existing stochastic downscaling models based on cascade techniques such as spatial disaggregation (Sharma et al. 2007), multiplicative random cascade (Srestha et al., 2004) or rainfall downscaling in a space-time multifractal (Deidda, 2000).
2) Review and assess different empirical statistical downscaling models and performance of statistical downscaling models in GCM validation and regional climate change estimation.
3) Compare the empirical statistical downscaling models with simulations of the present climate with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) over eastern South America.
4) Elaborate a complementary new proposal to be submitted to NSF to expand the present study to other regions and meteorological variables.
---------------

Jordan Clark 4/1/09-9/30/11 $101,961
Desert Research Institute, 646.9951.02(CJP05)

UCSB Sub-Award: Investigation of Methods Of Potential Value To Monitor Groundwater Recharge In The Mountains of California

This project will use exploratory field studies to address the major research needs suggested in the PIER report of Earman and Dettinger (2008) with the objective to advance the knowledge of methods that are appropriate for long-term monitoring of groundwater recharge in the mountains of California. The primary task of the UCSB group is to develop and apply 35S methodology to determine the portion of streamflow derived from the previous winter’s snowpack. 35S, a radioactive isotope with a half-life 87.4 days, is produced in the upper atmosphere and enters the hydrologic cycle as dissolved SO42- through precipitation. Because radioactive decay causes the activity of this isotope to decrease below detection limits after about four half-lives (approximately one year), its presence in water indicates that a fraction is derived from recent precipitation. Given the seasonality of precipitation in the Sierra, this new method will allow us to quantify the fraction of stream flow derived from the most recent snowmelt. Stream water derived from snow that fell two or more winters before will not contain detectable 35S.

---------------

Jordan Clark 2/1/06-2/2/11 $89,100
National Science Foundation, OCE-0550203(CJN01)

Collaborative Research: A three-dimensional, subseafloor, IODP observatory network in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, and initiation of large-scale, cross-hole experiments

This is a proposal for support of multidisciplinary borehole experiments in oceanic crust, to assess hydrogeologic, solute transport, and microbiological processes and properties at multiple spatial (lateral and with depth) and temporal (seconds to years) scales. This work will profoundly improve our understanding of fluid processes within oceanic crust, and will develop new tools and methods that can be applied in many settings. The project includes engineering design and testing, system construction, and observatory servicing, and will support long-term experiments initiated during drilling and by ROV/HOV.

Experiments will be run using a network of six subseafloor observatories installed in basement holes on the eastern flank of the Juan de Fuca Ridge. This is an ideal place for this work based on earlier drilling experience, available infrastructure, extensive site surveys, and a broad understanding of crustal properties and fluid flow patterns. IODP Expedition 301 (summer 2004) installed three new observatories. A second drilling expedition is waiting to be scheduled by the Operations Committee (OPCOM), with the next opportunity anticipated in 2007/08. This NSF proposal is for: CORK and scientific system design and testing; construction of drillship, seafloor, subseafloor, and ROV/HOV instrumentation; emplacement, recovery and replacement of long-term instruments; collection of data and samples from these systems; analysis of data and samples; training of students; and presentation and publication of results.
During the next drilling expedition, an existing borehole observatory will be replaced, and two new observatories will be installed, all monitoring multiple crustal levels. Observatories will include the latest generations of pressure instrumentation, continuous fluid sampling systems, microbial colonization substrate, and autonomous temperature logging instruments within the sealed holes. We will run a 24-hour fluid injection experiment in one borehole during drilling and monitor formation response in five other holes 35 m - 2400 m away. We will also inject a mixture of tracers to be used in single-hole and cross-hole transport studies. After one-two years of borehole equilibration following drilling, we will use the natural formation overpressure to run a free-flow ("artesian") aquifer test for two years, allowing us to quantify crustal hydrogeologic properties at enormous spatial scales, and sample formation fluids and microbes.
---------------

Jordan Clark 9/1/10-8/31/12 $104,399
National Science Foundation, 7003595(CJN03)

Collaborative Research: Large-scale, Long-term, Multi-directional, Cross-hole Experiments in the Upper Oceanic Crust Using a Borehole Observatory Network.
Intellectual Merit

This is a proposal for support of multidisciplinary borehole experiments in oceanic crust, to assess hydrogeologic, solute and colloid transport, and microbiological processes and properties at multiple spatial and temporal scales (meters to kilometers, minutes to years). Results of these experiments will comprise a major advance in our understanding of hydrogeologic properties and fluid processes within oceanic crust, and will help to develop new tools and methods that can be applied in many settings. Earlier grants funded engineering design and testing in preparation for these experiments; the present proposal is for support of scientific activities that will occur after IODP Expedition 327, beginning in Fall 2010. IODP Expedition 327 will drill and deepen three basement holes and install three new subseafloor, borehole observatory systems (CORKs). Expedition 327 will include single and cross-hole hydrogeologic testing, to assess multi-scale formation properties, including the nature of hypothesized azimuthal and vertical crustal anisotropy. IODP researchers will also conduct singleand multi-hole tracer experiments, injecting a mixture of tracers during a 24-hour pumping test in one of the new basement holes, and monitoring for tracer arrival at holes 35 m to 2400 m away. We request support for two dive programs, in Summer 2011 and 2012, one and two years after drilling, followed by analytical and modeling work. The Summer 2011 expedition will include: downloading pressure data and collecting borehole fluid samples from several observatories at multiple depth using valves and samplers at the seafloor, exchanging long-term wellhead OsmoSamplers and microbial fluid samplers, and attaching an autonomous flow meter to one wellhead and opening a ball valve, initiating a long-term cross-hole experiment. We anticipate fluid discharge from the naturally-overpressured formation at 5–10 L/s for the subsequent year. The Summer 2012 expedition will be similar, except that we will recover the flow meter and close the valve on the free-flowing CORK, allowing formation pressure to recover. Analytical work will determine fluid and microbial characteristics and relationships, and numerical studies will evaluate coupled fluid-thermal-chemical flow processes in the crust with three-dimensional modeling and conditional simulation.
---------------

Jordan Clark 1/1/09-02/29/12 $38,673
Water Replenishment District of So Cal, SB090078(CJP04)

2009 Rio Hondo-Groundwater Tracer Study

The 2009 Rio Hondo Groundwater Tracer Study is intended to directly determine groundwater transit times from the northern Rio Hondo Spreading Grounds (RHSG) to nearby production and monitoring wells. It will be conducted in conjunction with the Water Replenishment District of Southern California (WRD) and coordinated with modifications to Well# 200065 designed to isolate different portions of the screen at the well. The experiment will test the hypothesis that the travel time of recharge water from the RHSG to Well#200065 can be increased from 16 weeks (4 months) as defined in the 2003 and 2005 experiments to beyond 26 weeks (6 months) following well modifications. Additional productions wells and monitoring wells will also be sampled to compare with the results from the earlier tests. The experiment will follow similar procedures of the 2003 and 2005 tracer experiments, which are described by McDermott et al. (2008).
---------------

Jordan Clark 10/1/10-8/1/13 $110,875
WateReuse Association (Foundation), SB090078(CJP06)

Development of New Tracers for Determining Travel Time Near MAR Operations.

The objective of the proposed study is to evaluate two new tracers to determine subsurface travel times near manage aquifer recharge (MAR) sites, which could be used instead of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) for compliance with the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) reuse regulations. The tracers to be tested are boron–10 (as 10B enriched borate) and radio-sulfur (35S). Multi-tracer experiments with SF6, 10B, and 35S will be conducted on a variety of scales, ranging from laboratory columns (travel time of minutes) to MAR operations (travel time of months), to evaluate the relative performance of the different tracers. The proposed study will address issues critical to the operation and regulation of many water reuse projects in California, the United States and elsewhere around the world and will increase the available tools for evaluating travel times and hydraulic connections near MAR operations. These data are critical for understanding water quality changes that occur in the subsurface and permitting (in California). The California Air Resources Board (CARB) is in the process of regulating emission of SF6. Although an exemption for research is being discussed and will probably be included, the rules will require new methods for the introduction of SF6 into the recharge water that minimize its loss to the atmosphere. Furthermore, the EPA has recently determined that SF6 and other greenhouse gases, such as CO2, are pollutants. Future federal regulations may supersede California’s and prevent the use of this tracer at MAR locations.
---------------

Chris Costello 9/1/04-9/30/10 $138,057
Stanford University, 13260830-30242-E(CCJP02)

Linking human and biophysical processes in coastal marine ecosystems of Baja California.

The objective of this research is to understand the factors primarily responsible for the success or failure of small-scale fisheries off Baja California, Mexico. Two prototypical fisheries that will be examined are the lobster and abalone. The lobster fishery has seen record, seemingly sustainable catches in recent years, while abalone seem to be on a trajectory towards economic extinction. Costello will co-lead the modeling efforts for this research, including developing simulation-based bioeconomic models as well as econometric (statistical) empirical models. Models will be based on expertise (within the research group) from economics, anthropology, and biology. Modeling tools include analytical and MATLAB-based simulation experiments. In the first two years, the student will be responsible for reviewing the literature and identifying existing modeling approaches to solve similar problems. In the final two years, the student will be expected to engage in model development and in the generation and interpretation of results.
---------------

John Cottle 5/1/11-4/30/12 $64,931
National Science Foundation, 1050043(CJ1N01)

Collaborative Research: Improving the Accuracy and Precision of Monazite and Allanite Geochronology via ID Th-Pb Ages for Reference Materials.

The principal limitation for obtaining high-precision, accurate standard-based 208Pb/232Th ages from monazite and allanite is the lack of appropriate, well-characterized reference materials. Because both monazite and allanite are compositionally variable and SIMS, LA-ICP-MS incur instrumental mass-dependent fractionation, it is essential to closely match standards with unknowns. This proposal seeks to determine isotope dilution (ID) Th-Pb ages for the Th-rich accessory minerals monazite and allanite. Th-Pb ages currently exist for only one reference material that is commonly used-'554'. Consequently, all standard-based geochronologic measurements require an assumption that Th-Pb and U-Pb ages are equivalent. This assumption is unnecessary and, in many cases, invalid. By obtaining high-precision ID Th-Pb ages for a suite of well-characterized, community-wide reference materials, this research will provide a means of independently calibrating Th-Pb ages for minerals that can be linked to fundamental tectonic processes.

The proposal has three distinct but interlinked objectives: 1. Sample Characterization by Electron Probe Microanalyzer (EPMA); 2. LA-ICP-MS U-Pb Dating of potential monazite reference materials; and 3. Development of a ‘spike’ specifically for isotope dilution analysis of monazite by ICP-MS and ID-TIMS.
---------------

John Cottle 10/1/09-9/30/12 $41,411
National Science Foundation, 0911416(CJ1N03)

Collaborative Research:Orogen-parallel mid-crustal flow and exhumation of domes along the southern maring of the Tibetan plateau

The Himalayas provide an exceptional opportunity to investigate the evolution of mid-crustal rocks that are bounded by active fault systems. Here, high-grade rocks that have been exhumed along orogen-parallel thrust faults and low angle detachment faults that were active until the middle Miocene have received considerable attention. In several regions, the major structures that bound these mid-crustal rocks, the Main Central thrust (MCTZ) below and South Tibetan detachment system (STDS) above, are offset or reactivated by young metamorphic domes. Our recently obtained data from the Ama Drime Massif (ADM) suggest that it is another example of active orogen-parallel extension that has dominated the southern margin of the Tibetan Plateau since the middle Miocene. Young metamorphic domes and their interaction with older shear zone/fault systems provide an important opportunity to study orogen-parallel mid-crustal flow and exhumation within an active convergent setting.
---------------

Carla D’Antonio 7/3/09 – 8/31/12 $12,051

Jennifer Thorsch

National Science Foundation, DBI-0946917 (TJF02)

NSF REU Infrastructure Upgrade & Curation of CCBER

The primary objective of the Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) award is to provide the opportunity for a student to 1) participate in the curation and conservation of CCBER’s plant specimens and 2) to assist with teaching and developing lesson plans and activities focused on plant taxonomy, plant collecting, pressing, mounting, and establishing a classroom herbarium for three 5^th grade classes participating in the Kids in Nature (KIN) environmental education program.

---------------

Frank Davis 3/7/11-9/9/13 $383,787
David Stoms
California Energy Commission, 20101173(DFP45)

Cumulative Biological Impacts Framework for Solar Energy Projects in the California Desert.

Burgeoning interest in development of renewable energy projects in the California Desert and elsewhere is raising alarms about the potential impacts on biological resources. Many areas of high energy potential are in fragile environments that are easily disturbed and hard to restore. Our understanding of impacts of energy projects and associated infrastructure is still in its infancy (Western Governors’ Association 2008). Utility scale solar projects, having less implementation track record than wind, have potential impacts that are garnering increasing attention: habitat loss; alteration of water sources; elimination of crucial seasonal habitats; habitat fragmentation; disruption of movement patterns and connectivity and loss of gene flow; avoidance of project areas due to noise or human activity; invasive species that take advantage of disturbed sites; wildlife mortality on service roads; collisions or electrocutions from new transmission lines; or increasing predation as a result of additional prey perches on powerline poles (Western Governors’ Association [WGA] 2008).
Improvement in understanding is needed both about habitat?related effects and about cumulative impacts. By modeling the cumulative impacts from renewable energy development, climate change, and urban growth in the Western Mojave region, Bare et al. (2009) were able to show where connectivity for desert tortoise and desert bighorn sheep would likely decrease. Avoidance behavior by wildlife of energy projects can lead to high energy costs to individuals from the cumulative effect when multiple projects occur along a species movement corridor (Fox et al. 2006). Each species, however, has different sensitivities to these habitat alterations. Adding to the uncertainty about specific impacts is the diversity of solar technologies. Some systems require high power towers at the center of the farm of heliostats. Tracking systems require greater spacing between rows of panels to avoid artificial shading. Habitat models that operate on the scale of these impacts have been missing, but are now possible with recent advances in modeling.
NEPA prescribes a mitigation hierarchy: avoid, minimize, restore, or offset in descending order of preference. The bustle of planning activity for renewable energy in the West has focused on avoiding crucial habitats and minimizing impact on significant biological resources. The WGA has been assessing energy potential and wildlife impacts for several years. They established a process of selecting renewable energy zones (REZs). Sites of sufficient energy density were
screened for statutory or regulatory limitations (e.g., designated wilderness areas) or general environmental or land use constraints. To rank these sites to inform the process of establishing REZs, the Western Governors’ Wildlife Council defined categories of High Sensitive Areas that are irreplaceable for wildlife, Sensitive Areas where development would likely pose a significant risk to wildlife, and Areas with Insufficient Data. NatureServe (2009) was contracted to map these sensitivity classes according to data and classification rules chosen by each state.
---------------

Frank Davis 12/11/08-11/26/10 $269,434
California Energy Commission- UCOP(DFP44)

Biofuels and Biodiversity in California

Rising environmental, economic, and political concerns about the production and use of fossil fuels have led to a renewed interest in biofuels derived from dedicated energy crops or crop residues nationally and particularly in California (California Biomass Collaborative 2006). Fuel crop production also provides an economic opportunity for some farmers. A number of recent studies found encouraging evidence that the substitution of biofuels for fossil fuels could in many cases reduce environmental impacts such as eutrophication, acidification, and ecotoxicity, and, most importantly, anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Sheehan et al. 2003, de Oliveira et al. 2005, Kim and Dale 2005, Hill et al. 2006, Tilman et al. 2006iHH). Little attention has been paid, however, to the potential impacts of fuel crop production on habitat and biodiversity. The impacts may not necessarily be negative, however. For example, planting perennial crops like switchgrass on idle cropland may improve habitat quality for some species (Perlack et al. 2005). Recent work by Tilman et al. (2006) showed that degraded agricultural land that was planted with a mixture of grassland perennials could produce more energy with superior reductions of GHGs without impacting food supply or native ecosystems. We could expect the biodiversity value of such restored lands would also increase. Some energy crop types are salt-tolerant and could help restore habitat quality by remediating high-salinity soils and associated pollution of wetlands in arid regions (Bañuelos 2006, California Biomass Collaborative 2006). Before policy makers and business leaders commit heavily to large-scale production of biofuels, the discussion needs to be informed about the potential impacts on biodiversity (Hanegraaf et al. 1998, Chan et al. 2004). For the current proposal we will conduct a statewide study of the potential effects on habitat of wildlife species associated with changes in crops, crop patterns, and agricultural practices under several scenarios of biofuels production.

California has a modest demand for biofuel but demand is expected to increase rapidly, especially with recent state policies. California requires a blend rate of 5.7% ethanol with fossil fuel in vehicles. It is also possible for vehicles to use blend rates of 10% and 20%. Current annual usage of ethanol is approximately 1 billion gallons, with another 4 millions gallons of biodiesel (California Biomass Collaborative 2006). Currently, California imports more than 95 percent of the biofuels used in-state (California Energy Commission 2007). The Governor’s Executive Order S-06-06 sets goals for increasing reliance on in-state production of biofuels, specifically that California should produce at least 20 percent of the biofuels consumed in the state by 2010, 40 percent by 2020, and 75% by 2050. The following tables indicate how those goals translate into gallons per year of production and estimates for area required to produce that volume if feedstocks were grown instate. These tables illustrate that hundreds of thousands of acres would need to be dedicated to producing biofuel feedstocks to meet even the short-term goal for 2010 at the low blend rates for both ethanol and biodiesel, increasing to millions of acres by 2050 for all blend rates. Because of differences in energy efficiencies, crop types have different land requirements. For instance, only about half the area is required by sugar beets to meet the goals compared to corn. If corn stover can be feasibly and economically converted to ethanol along with conversion of the grain, the land requirements for corn become comparable to those for sugar beets.
---------------

Frank Davis 11/1/08-6/30/11 $112,527
Conservation International, SB080056(DFP43)

Climate and Land Use Change

The Climate and Land Use Change project will focus on understanding the land use changes that may unfold globally and in individual landscapes as the result of climate change, especially the direct effect of climate change on species distributions. Four drivers of land use change associated with climate change have been identified for study – direct impacts on species distributions, the influence of carbon markets, land devoted to renewable energy productions, and impacts on human systems that feedback to the biodiversity. The first of these land use change drivers is the effect of climate change directly on species ranges – it will result in movements in species distributions and the tearing apart of ecosystems and reassembly into novel combinations of species. These changes can be modeled through a number of statistical techniques that relates species ranges to the climate the species find suitable. Modeling of this type is the focus of the project. It allows assessment of this direct effect on species and its interactions with other land use change drivers associated with climate change. Work integrating these direct impacts with other land use changes driven by climate change are included in the project. The project will engage in some analysis of these other forces: energy development, carbon markets, and hum adaptation as a result.
---------------

Frank Davis 2/1/11-6/30/11 $13,000
Conservation International, SB110084(DFP46)

Madagascar Crop Suitability Change Modeling.

UCSB will develop projections for changes in crop distributions in Madagascar for five main crop types, identify changes in climate suitability for crops under current distribution patterns and indentify changes in crop suitability without current distribution range restrictions. These analyses will be conducted using the EcoCrop modeling system in conjunction with agricultural production data from several sources. The results will inform decision-making in Madagascar about areas at high risk or highly vulnerable to climate change, and adaptation actions to address those vulnerabilities and to create conservation strategies that address both the human and natural dimensions of climate change.

The communication of results for incorporation into conservation policy will be effected through the ongoing Bren School-Conservation International collaboration, in partnership with the Conservation Intenational field program in Antananarivo, Madagascar. The lead modeler in this project will travel to Madagascar to present results and to train Malagasy scientists in EcoCrop and species suitability modeling.

This short project will provide modeled projections of changes in crop distribution across Madagascar for 2050, 2070 for subsistence and cash crops using EcoCrop. Changes in suitability for crops for each sub-region of Madagascar will be used to inform an assessment of human adaptation needs in priority conservation landscapes and integrate into the action plan for forest connectivity under climate scenarios.
---------------

Frank Davis 8/31/08-2/29/12 $143,350
Department of Interior, J8C07080005(DFP42)

Preparing of Natural Resources Condition Assessment for Santa Monica Mountains NRA, Pinnacles NM, and John Muir NHS.

The Mediterranean Coast Network and San Francisco Bay Area Network have joined with University of California, Santa Barbara in the preparation of natural resource condition assessments (hereafter, assessments) for three parks in the Pacific West Region: Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area (SAMO), Pinnacles National Monument (PINN), and John Muir National Historic Site (JOMU). The assessments will characterize natural resources in these parks in terms of their setting and significance, provide an interdisciplinary evaluation of current condition status for park natural resources (spatial report-out, by park subareas), identify and document critical resource data and knowledge gaps, and highlight existing/emerging resource condition threats and stressors.

The National Park Service (NPS) and the University of California Santa Barbara (UCSB) will collaborate on a natural resource condition assessments (hereafter, assessments) for three parks in the Mediterranean (MEDN) and San Francisco Bay Area (SFAN) Vital Signs Monitoring Networks: Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area (SAMO), Pinnacles National Monument (PINN), and John Muir National Historic Site (JOMU). The assessments will characterize natural resources in these parks in terms of their setting and significance, provide an interdisciplinary evaluation of current condition status for park natural resources (spatial report-out, by park subareas), identify and document critical resource data and knowledge gaps, and highlight existing/emerging resource condition threats and stressors.
---------------

Frank Davis 6/1/11-5/31/16 $2,286,655
National Science Foundation, EF-1065864(DFF03)

Collaborative Research: Do Micro-environments Govern Macro-ecology?

Lead Institution: UC Santa Barbara Collaborators: UC Riverside, UC Berkeley, UC Los Angeles, Arizona State University, Conservation Biology Institute, Desert Research Institute, Conservation International

This project examines the effect of microenvironments (i.e. areas of high habitat suitability for individual species on macroecological processes, including species distribution responses to climate change and consequent extinction risk. Microenvironments have played critical roles in rapid vegetation response to past climate change, such as the emergence from the last glacial maximum. This project tests the importance of these difficult-to-model features in vegetation response to future climate change. The overarching research question addressed is ""How does macroecological response to climate change emerge from finer scale climate and population processes?"

The project uses a combination of modeling and field experimentation to answer this question. A collaborative research team will model microenvironment impacts on species distribution, abundance and diversity under rapid climate change for four tree species across four study sites in the Sierra Nevada and Coast Ranges of California. This proposed research design is a novel combination of site trials, distribution models and population models, incorporating measured (rather than inferred) species' tolerances relevant to microenvironments at scales that vary over five orders of magnitude (30m-3000km). Analytical tools will include reciprocal transplant experiments, field surveys, species trait-based distribution models, population models and biogeographic models of climate change. Physical models of microenvironments are linked to models of tree species occupation of microenvironments, which in turn inform models of population-level responses. Climate change is simulated using Regional Earth Systems Models and statistical downscaling from global climate model simulations. Field experiments examine the response of establishment phase (seedling) dynamics, the life history stage most sensitive to altered climate, through transplanting protocols to lower (warmer) elevations. The frequency of fire in the landscape is projected using correlations of fire to landscape conditions under current climate. Establishment phase and fire information is then used in models of single species population responses and multi-taxa responses in complex landscapes. These population-level models will give clear indication of whether microenvironments change species dynamics in rapid climate change in ways that will dramatically change range-wide and continental-scale biological responses to climate change.
---------------

Jeff Dozier 10/1/08-12/31/10 $900,000
National Science Foundation, CBET-0838607(DJF02)

Conceptual Design of the WATer and Environmental Research Systems Network.

The WATERS Network will help us understand and predict the ways in which heterogeneous processes interact with one another at different scales to produce the variability found in the water environment. Knowledge about explicitly scale-dependent processes will thereby inform options for management and engineering design.

Water for human consumption, agriculture, and industrial processes is perhaps humanity’s most fundamental need. Our traditional methods of predicting and managing water and its quality are based on statistical relations developed when human impacts were isolated and climate was relatively stable. These boundary conditions are changing, hence the need for new fundamental understanding.
---------------

Jeff Dozier 10/1/10-9/30/12 $18,740
National Science Foundation, EAR-1015057(DJF03)

Rapid Quantitative Snow Stratigraphy for Avalanche Forecasting Using Near-Infrared Photography.

Over two snow seasons, we made detailed time-series observations of snow stratigraphy and sintering throughout the depth profile of the snowpack. We used optical microscopy and scanning electron microscopy to measure snow grain geometry and chemical composition. Our findings agree with laboratory experiments and sintering theory. Because of the time required for sampling and microscopy, we sampled in just two locations. We now plan to extend our sampling to learn how stratigraphy and sintering vary spatially. Other studies we recently published examine how spatial variability is the driving mechanism that produces power laws in avalanche depth distributions. We will use a new method, near-infrared digital photography, for rapid quantitative stratigraphy and to cover the range of variability over a large mountain. We will apply this technique to snow stability evaluation and the general study of snow metamorphism. Since the measurement of snow properties with near-infrared photography is a new technique, it has not been widely used, and there are no peer-reviewed studies that apply it to snow stability. While the heterogeneity of grain sizes at the snow surface has been investigated with remote sensing, there are many fewer studies of the heterogeneity of snow properties in buried layers, especially at the slope scale. Our experience, extensive instrumentation, site accessibility, and large number of avalanche control records make our field location, Mammoth Mountain, an ideal site to test how near-infrared photography can be used for avalanche hazard evaluation. We will relate mechanical strength to specific signs of instability, called lemons, i.e. yellow flags. We propose that four of five common lemons can be identified with nearinfrared photography alone. We will also use spatial statistics and machine-learning techniques to classify stable and unstable near-infrared snow profiles. The funding requested will supply materials and travel expenses for one PhD student, who is supported by an ORISE fellowship through the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory.
---------------

Jeff Dozier 9/1/07-12/31/10 $459,442
Office of Naval Research, N00244-07-1-0013(DJO01)

Mountain Snow Cover, Albedo, and Space-Time Interpolation from Multispectral Sensors.

We proposed to improve mapping of snow cover and its albedo using multispectral sensors. The fundamental product is the fractional snow cover (i.e. the fraction of each pixel covered by snow) and its broadband albedo, derived from the grain size and contaminant amount. The main source of unclassified data is MODIS, NASA’s Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, but the methods would apply to any multispectral sensor with wavelength bands in the visible, near-infrared and shortwave infrared. The technique we use is spectral unmixing, choosing a snow endmember that results in the smallest RMS error. In addition to the snow cover and albedo mapped from a single image, we will also develop methods for space-time interpolation when we have a time series of images, for example daily MODIS data. Such interpolation is necessary because snow is dynamic, changing at a slower time scale than atmospheric phenomena but faster than other surface covers. Sensor noise, cloud cover, and viewing geometry all affect a single image, so a best estimate based on the time series is a more useful product. We use a combination of smoothing splines in the time dimension with q-hull interpolation in the spatial dimension.
---------------

Jeff Dozier 9/1/08-9/30/13 $35,500
US Department of Agriculture, 58-5362-8-415(DJP11)

Using a Modeling System to Extend Hydrologic parameters and Processes from Experimental Watersheds to larger Regions Within Mountainous Regions of the Western US.

In the Western US, water quality and quantity is the foundation of all agricultural and urban development. Increasing demand for this limited resource requires improved management, including simulation models that describe the timing and availability and quality of water in the region. The Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) is the most intensively monitored watershed in the region and has a 48-year data record. We are able to effectively and accurately simulate the distribution of precipitation, snow deposition and melt, soil moisture and streamflow within the RCEW. It is not clear how to extend these findings over wider regions within the semi-arid Great Basin in the western US. While the cost of duplicating the detailed measurement and monitoring programs in place within RCEW to other mountainous drainages within the Western US is prohibitive, the National Science Foundation (NSF) WATer and Environmental Research Systems (WATERS) Network has requested that ARS join them in undertaking an effort determine which measurements and the critical measurement density required, to extend the detailed information available within RCEW to other mountain drainages across the Western US.

This project will: 1) Apply the modified Penn State Integrated Hydrology Modeling (PIHM) system over RCEW using all available data; 2) Selectively reduce input data to determine the minimum input forcing data required to achieve acceptable simulation accuracy; 3) Recommend augmentation of existing measurement facilities and models that would be required to achieve this level of simulation accuracy over other mountain drainages in the Western US.
--------------

Jeff Dozier 6/24/11-6/23/12 $1,425,210
James Frew
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NNX11AK35A(DJN11)

Error Analysis of MODIS Fractional Snow-Covered Area and Snow Albedo in Mountain Regions.

With the significant maturation of Earth science products in the EOS era, we are on the verge of true quantitative integration of these high-resolution, spatially explicit data records into water resource management and research. Snowmelt runoff forecasting in mountainous areas, such as the western United States, has developed as empirical models forced by sparse, in situ measurements of snow water equivalent that lie primarily in subalpine regions. Not only do the seasonal forecast models already have large errors in some years, they rely on a data record that assumes stationarity, and, therefore, are theoretically ill suited for water manage- ment in a changing climate. Moreover, they are unable to accurately address water resources during extreme events, such as persisting spring snow or new snowfall in the alpine zone above almost all measurement sites.
In response to this need for better assessment of the snow resource in mountain areas, new Earth System Data Records that use MODIS data have become available. However, they have not been rigorously validated, and uncertainties and the possible presence of systematic error are not known. In this investigation, we propose to undertake this necessary validation, through four years because the products will evolve. The specific Earth System Data Records are:
·   Daily MODIS fractional snow cover.
-   MODIS fractional snow cover based on the normalized difference snow index originally developed for Landsat [Dozier, 1989; Hall et al., 2006], available from Terra (product MOD10A1) since 2000 and from Aqua (product MYD10A1) since 2002 [Salomonson and Appel, 2004, 2006].
-   MODIS fractional snow cover based on spectral mixing [Painter et al., 2009], available for the Sierra Nevada since 2000 but produced on demand for any MODIS scene. The al- gorithm will be used for the NOAA/NOHRSC National Snow Model starting in water year 2010-11 and has been adopted for the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), sched- uled for launch in the 2015 timeframe.
·   Snow albedo of the fractional snow cover, based on choosing the snow endmember from spectral mixing that minimizes the residual error [Painter et al., 2009]. A snow albedo prod- uct is also available for the normal “binary” (snow vs no-snow) snow-covered area product [Klein and Stroeve, 2002], but it is usually applied to continuous snow cover.
·   MODIS fractional snow cover and albedo, smoothed and interpolated across time and space to compensate for cloud cover, off-nadir viewing, and data dropouts [Dozier et al., 2008]. The analyses are available as monthly data cubes, during the snow seasons, for the Sierra Nevada since 2000.
The coupling presented here of fractional snow cover and the albedo of that snow provides water managers with spatially and temporally dense data records that populate modeling in- puts for forecasting and research. Their use in snowmelt models and reservoir operations would be advanced by our proposed investigation, which would validate the products, analyze the structure of errors, and advise users of caveats and likely accuracy. Of greatest interest is their potential combination with surface data and energy balance models to help estimate the
-1-spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE). SWE can be interpolated in near real time from snow pillow and snow course measurements, constraining the surface measurements by satellite snow-cover estimates [Fassnacht et al., 2003]. In addition, SWE can be reconstructed from satellite snow-cover estimates and snow-depletion models [Martinec and Rango, 1981; Cline et al., 1998; Molotch, 2009].
---------------

Jeff Dozier 2/1/04-1/31/12 $3,950,000
James Frew
Jiancheng Shi
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NNG04GC52A(DIN09)

Multi-Resolution Snow Products for the Hydrologic Sciences

For three decades satellite remote sensing instruments operating at visible, near-infrared, and microwave wavelengths have measured snow properties. In all snow products, and in remote sensing in general, there is a tradeoff between spatial resolution and swath width (and thus frequency of observations). Because most hydrologic applications require regular, frequent measurements, the instruments that provide the bulk of the data used have been AVHRR and MODIS in the optical part of the spectrum, with spatial resolutions of 1.1km and 500m at nadir, and the passive microwave sensors, with spatial resolutions of tens of kilometers. Because snow-covered area usually varies at a spatial scale finer than that of the resolution of the remote sensing instrument (i.e., the ground instantaneous field-of-view), this subpixel heterogeneity introduces artifacts into the measurements. The sensors usually measure radiation reflected or emitted from a mixture of snow, rock, soil, and vegetation. We contend that the errors introduced by subpixel heterogeneity can be systematic, and therefore they are not always eliminated by integrating over many pixels. We propose to develop a new set of products—snowcovered area, albedo, and snow-water equivalence—that fuse optical (MODIS, AVHRR) and microwave data (SSM/R, SSM/I, AMSR-E, and AMSR) and that incorporate spatial heterogeneity into the analysis. Data product creation and distribution will be provided through a local infrastructure for Earth science product management: a technology suite we call the Earth System Science Server (ES-cubed), an environment for managing the creation, maintenance, updating, and dissemination of Earth science data products. The technology is based on the Microsoft TerraServer and runs on clusters of small computers. In addition to being robust and capacious enough to support public access, the infrastructure is flexible enough to manage the idiosyncratic computing ensembles that typify scientific research.
---------------

Jeff Dozier 10/1/09-9/30/12 $60,000
Karl Rittger
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NNX09AN75H(DJN10)

Improving Runoff Forecasting with Enhanced Estimates of Snow Properties.

This investigation implements an interpolation scheme that estimates basin wide volumes of snow water equivalent (SWE), relying on patterns of SWE from an energy balance model, remote sensing, and in situ measurements. The interpolation scheme has potential for operating in real time for seasonal runoff forecasting to inform decision-making. With 25 years of snow-covered area data, the interpolation scheme can be used to examine peak SWE in Sierra Nevada River basins to investigate natural variability and trends. The approach examines patterns from estimates of the spatial distribution of snow from a retrospective energy balance method, and thereby incorporates hypsometric and land cover characteristics of snow in the Sierra Nevada. The objective is a better understanding of hydrologic sensitivity and land-atmosphere coupling through space-based remote sensing and distributed basin modeling. The overarching science objective is the development of an interpolation method to integrate satellite and in situ observations to produce real time estimates of spatially distributed SWE that can be used for runoff forecasting. The investigation addresses the NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) research objective to improve our capability to predict extreme events such as floods caused by
rain on snow. I will use spectral mixing analysis to quantify fractional snow-covered area (fSCA) and an energy balance model to quantify SWE, two key variables in the energy and water cycles that represent another SMD research objective. Finally, I will address SMD research objectives by developing historical fSCA and SWE datasets that can be used in climate simulations for predictability of water, carbon and nitrogen.
---------------

Thomas Dunne 11/15/07-11/30/13 $286,582
California Department of Water Resources, 460007708(DTW05/TDW03)

San Joaquin River Restoration Program

This project involves field and computational research to assist the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) in providing Chinook salmon habitat in Reach 1 of the San Joaquin River. Completion will involve both field data collection and computer modeling activities designed to answer the question: "How will the form and bed conditions of the gravel bed reach of the San Joaquin River respond to an alteration of flow regime and to manipulation of the sediment within the reach, and how will the changes affect the quality of habitat for Chinook salmon?"
---------------

Thomas Dunne 4/1/11-3/31/13 $102,876
Erin Bray
UC Sea Grant College Program, R/SF-49(DTW06/07)

Effect of Direct and Interactive Disturbances of the Streamflow Regime of the Middle San Joaquin River on Key Instream Abiotic Drivers of Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) Habitat.

This research proposal describes computational research and supplemental field/data collection in ecohydrology and river quality modeling to characterize how variations in flow regime relate to instream abiotic conditions in order to provide favorable habitat for Chinook salmon in Reach 1 of the Middle San Joaquin River. The aim of this project is to develop a pair of interlocking, dynamic models and field analyses to quantify the availability and distribution of stream temperature, dissolved oxygen, and sediment conditions that support Chinook populations. This will be done by coupling an existing hydrodynamic model with an existing stream network population model to 1) perturb existing flow releases from the Friant Dam (timing, frequency, magnitude, duration, rate of change), 2) advance our understanding of habitat suitability across gradients of temperature and dissolved oxygen, 3) predict fish population response to direct and interactive flow/habitat disturbances, and 5) identify critical cause and effect pathways to defining a restored ecosystem for Chinook salmon throughout the Bay Delta. Doing so gives rise to emergent complex dynamics that can be examined only through an integrated study of flow, abiotic effects, and fish populations. Each of these has a potentially unique spatial signature that is in part controlled by hydrograph manipulation, and fish will thrive only where all of these coincide. Planning for flow releases in Bay Delta systems may be better informed if we understand the abiotic and ecological significance.
---------------

Tom Dunne 6/1/06-6/30/13 $1,400,000
Frank Davis
Bruce Kendall
Hunter Lenihan
CalFed Bay-Delta Program, U-05-SC-058(DFW05/06, DTW02/TDW04, KBW01/02, LHW01/02)

How Abiotic Processes, Biotic Processes, and Their Interactions Sustain Habitat Characteristics and Functions in River Channels and their Floodplains: An Investigation of the Response of a Gravel-Bed Reach of the Merced River to Restoration

Understanding how conservation and restoration interventions influence biological resources in California rivers is a key objective of state and federal resource agencies. The prevailing paradigm for river restoration within central California, and specifically within the California Bay-Delta Restoration Program, is that establishment of a naturalized, self-regulating, alluvial river channel, connected to its floodplain, will produce a cascade of benefits through the re-establishment of spawning and rearing conditions, initially for salmon, and coincidentally for the successful development of a number of other native aquatic, riparian, and floodplain organisms. Based upon decades of study by the community of aquatic ecologists and river restoration professionals in California, summarized in both the scientific literature and in various resource assessments and baseline survey reports [e.g. Stillwater Sciences, 2001, 2002; Trush et al., 2000], it has been proposed that a self-regulating alluvial river, supporting a diversity and abundance of native species including salmonids, has the following components:
•    Unconstrained banks that allow the river channel to migrate laterally to create, maintain, and rejuvenate pools (rearing habitat), point bars (shallow margin rearing habitat), riffles (spawning habitat), and floodplains (riparian and terrestrial habitat).
•    A gravel-bottomed river that is mobilized and redeposited frequently enough to destroy, create, and maintain sufficient spawning and rearing habitat.
•    Temporal patterns of flow conditions, sediment loads, water quality, and water temperatures that favor the long-term survival of numerous native species whose life cycles are adjusted to these variations.

This conceptual framework constitutes the richest and most thoroughly elaborated paradigm available to river restoration professionals for re-establishing the linkages between what was formerly a dynamic physical environment and the biogeochemical and biological processes that yielded the biodiversity and productivity which are now diminished. However, it is essentially a qualitative model, conceptualized through comparative studies and informal observations in several rivers. We are not aware of any published quantitative study of the process linkages underlying this broad conceptual model. a fact that hinders its application to planning, design, and assessment of restoration projects. Now that some examples of the paradigm have been implemented, it is possible to use them to:
•    refine and elaborate some of the original design concepts,
•    answer questions about the desired biological responses by expanding studies of fish, invertebrates, and plants,
•    quantify the strengths of the hypothesized linkages between abiotic and biotic processes as the river systems evolve after restoration,
•    quantify how the reach-scale changes operate within the larger river systems in which they are nested.

The project utilizes a ~5 km long reach of the Merced River as an outdoor, natural-scale laboratory in which to observe, model, and test hypotheses about the linkages between geomorphic and hydrologic conditions and processes and the creation and maintenance of biological habitat.
---------------

Erica Fleishman 2/1/10-12/31/12 $266,000
BP Exploration - Alaska, SB100049(FEP05)

Cumulative Effects of Anthropogenic Underwater Sound on Marine Mammals.

The project will (1) provide a summary and synthesis of the peer-reviewed and, where appropriate, gray literature on cumulative effects of anthropogenic underwater sound on marine mammals and related information, (2) develop one or more suggested methods or approaches for routinely assessing cumulative effects of anthropogenic underwater sound on marine mammals on the basis of the best available scientific information (that is, methods that do not require substantial primary research), and (3) suggest future primary research approaches or studies likely to enhance the ability of industry to assess cumulative effects of anthropogenic underwater sound on marine mammals.
---------------

Erica Fleishman 7/1/09-12/31/11 $176,073
Kresge Foundation, 20091450(FEP01)

Identification of Research Questions with Great Potential to Inform Conservation Policy and Investment Strategies in the United States.

If science is to be relevant to the needs of policy makers rather than merely a curiosity-driven exercise, it must transcend refinement of concepts and lend itself to solving real-world problems. The decisions facing society, and the needs for credible science to inform those decisions, are increasingly critical. The unexpected speed and magnitude of climate change increases the emphasis on developing effective and near-term policy responses under considerable ecological, economic, social, and institutional uncertainties.

Researchers in the natural and social sciences may not have the insight or experience to frame questions with tangible bearing on conservation policy. We propose to lead a collaborative process by which policy makers in the United States convey their specific and greatest needs for information to conservation scientists concerned with the potential impacts of climate change on ecological systems that already are stressed. Development of a set of high-priority questions on which researchers might focus long has been recognized as an effective mechanism for advancing a discipline. Our work will build on broadly inclusive and highly successful efforts to identify ecological or conservation questions of notable relevance to policy makers and managers in the United Kingdom, Australia, and globally. Our work in the United States will be conducted in parallel with an effort in Canada that is supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. Thus, we ultimately will be able to compare results at a continental level. We define the United States as the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and the adjacent waters over which the United States has jurisdiction.

To specify topic areas under which questions will be nested, to generate a large pool of questions, to cull those questions, and to ensure the exercise is inclusive of the conservation community within the United States, we will seek comprehensive input from policy makers (and those who work closely with policy makers) in federal and state governments, nongovernmental organizations (including professional societies), and charitable foundations. The breadth and depth of participants’ understanding of practical application of science will ensure high salience of the questions with policy makers. After 40 questions have been selected, we will conduct surveys of (1) policy makers (or those who work closely with policy makers) in the governmental sector, (2) policy specialists in the nongovernmental sector, and (3) conservation researchers in the both the natural and social sciences. The goal of the surveys is to prioritize research questions and to compare ranked priorities among and within the groups.
---------------

Erica Fleishman 6/1/09-12/30/12 $204,146
Office of Naval Research, N00014-09-1-0896(FEO01)

Population Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance of Marine Mammals.

In 2005, a National Research Council (NRC) committee examined how the behavior of marine mammals responds to anthropogenic sound. The committee provided a valuable conceptual framework to structure future studies of the potential population-level effects of changes in behavior of marine mammals. However, developments since the committee issued its report, and advances in research that were not considered explicitly by the committee, have made it possible to transform this framework into a more formal model structure. For example, evolutionary biologists have developed an approach for investigating trait-mediated interactions, which describe how the behavior of individuals affects the dynamics of interacting populations. In addition, new developments in computationally intensive analytic methods have made it possible to fit trait-mediated interactions to empirical data with techniques such as hierarchical Bayesian analysis.

The NRC committee identified several levels at which anthropogenic sound may affect marine mammals, including behavior (e.g., diving, resting), life functions (e.g., feeding, breeding, migrating), vital rates (e.g. adult survival, reproduction), and populations (e.g., growth rate, probability of persistence). The Office of Naval Research is addressing the potential behavioral response of animals to sound exposure through controlled-exposure experiments. Knowledge of how effects transfer between behavior and life functions, and between life functions and vital rates, is limited. Improved understanding of transfer functions, whether theoretical or empirical, might help to guide research and management efforts, and to project how marine mammals may respond to alternative future scenarios of anthropogenic sound. Inferences also are directly relevant to assessing the potential effects on marine systems of climate change or changes in human density and development in coastal regions.

We expect to develop a multidisciplinary project team with 12 to 15 participants. This group will collaborate to implement an array of modeling approaches using existing data sets on marine mammals. This team will collaborate over the course of the project and will hold regular meetings to further develop models, analyze data, and work through conceptual challenges and interpretation of modeling efforts. In addition to work at participants’ home institutions, we are planning five meetings of the project team.
---------------

Erica Fleishman 1/7/10-8/31/13 $130,500
USDA Forest Service, 10-JV-11221632-028(FEP04)

Decision-support Tools for Conserving Greater Sage-grouse During Fire and Fuels Management Projects in Pinyon and Juniper Woodlands.

The configuration, species composition, and connectivity of sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) ecosystems across the Intermountain West is changing as a result of expansion of native singleleaf pinyon (Pinus monophylla) and Utah and western juniper (Juniperus osteosperma, J. occidentalis) trees, invasion by cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and other non-native plants, and human land uses such as agriculture, grazing by domestic livestock, energy extraction, and exurban infrastructure. Climate change directly affects the distribution and viability of sagebrush and exacerbates the influence of many existing stressors. The probability of listings of sagebrush-obligate or sagebrush-associated species, including birds, under federal and state endangered species acts is increasing as a result. The status of Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) is of particular concern. The historical range of Greater Sage-Grouse overlapped with 12 western states and with three Canadian provinces. Greater Sage-Grouse currently occupy ~50% of their historical range, and the abundances of many populations are declining by as much as 2% per year. Population trends of many other sagebrush-associated species are similar. For example, abundances of populations of Brewer’s Sparrow (Spizella brewerii) have been declining by 3% per year. Whether Greater Sage-Grouse warrant listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act has been debated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and district courts for more than five years. In the meantime, efforts to conserve the species and its habitat are well underway. In June 2008, the Western Governors’ Association issued Policy Resolution 08–12, Sagegrouse and Sagebrush Conservation, which recognized “a continuing need to evaluate the species’ status and develop overall management criteria at the range-wide level so conservation needs and successes can be assessed.” On 29 October 2008, the Governor of Nevada announced an Executive Order declaring that the state’s policy is to preserve and protect habitat for Greater Sage-Grouse whenever possible. Prescribed fire and other fuels management treatments have been suggested as mechanisms to slow expansion of pinyon and juniper woodlands while minimizing potential expansion of non-native plants and increasing habitat quality and quantity for Greater Sage-Grouse. These treatments also may reduce the probability of severe wildfires, which can have undesirable effects on social, economic, cultural, and ecological values. However, achieving long-term goals related to fire and fuels may conflict with short-term goals related to survival and viability of threatened and endangered species. Explicit evaluation of spatial and temporal tradeoffs in management of woodlands to reduce wildfire risk, maintain sagebrush systems, and conserve rare or sensitive species can identify strategies that are either consistent or incompatible with achieving simultaneously these and other objectives.
---------------

Erica Fleishman 4/17/09-4/30/13 $50,000
Wilburforce Foundation, 20091083(FEP02)

Maintaning Connectivity in the Great Basin in the Face of Climate and Land-Cover Change.

Climate change directly and indirectly will affect the viability of numerous species that are priorities for conservation and management in the Great Basin, and will exacerbate the influence of existing drivers on those species. It is uncertain how climate change, land use, and management treatments may change the quality and connectivity of habitat for species of concern. We will use newly developed conservation-planning approaches to optimize the quantity and connectivity of habitat for multiple species under different scenarios of environmental change. We will classify current land cover, project land cover and connectivity of habitat for target species under different scenarios of environmental change, optimize habitat quality and connectivity for multiple species under different scenarios of climate change and management, and share outcomes with the conservation and management community. We will capitalize on existing relationships with decision makers and managers in federal, state, and nongovernmental organizations to maximize the ability of our work to inform policy and management interventions. Analyses related to human-ignited fire and Greater Sage-Grouse are especially ripe for application.
---------------

Erica Fleishman 10/30/09-10/31/10 $45,000
Wilburforce Foundation, UNIVE0910(FEP03)

Integrating Conservation Science for the Coastal Temperate Rainforests (Tongass and Bear)

We propose to initiate a dialogue about conservation science and its application in coastal temperate rainforests in western North America. The Tongass National Forest (southeast Alaska, USA) and the Great Bear Rainforest (British Columbia, Canada) collectively represent Earth’s largest coastal temperate rainforest. To date, conservation science in each region largely has evolved independently. In part, that separation reflects differences between countries in governance and social priorities. However, the professional conservation community has not explored fully whether collaboration among those conducting or applying science in the Tongass National Forest and Great Bear Rainforest might increase the probability of achieving conservation objectives across the ecosystem as a whole. We propose to convene a scoping workshop of approximately 25 experts in the ecology and conservation of coastal temperate rainforests, transboundary conservation, and conservation area design. The group will begin to frame an agenda for using existing and new understanding from the natural, physical, and social sciences to sustain conservation outcomes for coastal temperate rainforest in a period of rapid environmental and societal change.
---------------

Roland Geyer           10/1/09-9/30/11                           $218,120
Frank Davis
David Stoms
National Science Foundation, CBET-0932369(GRF01)

Spatially-explicit Life Cycle Assessment Tools for Environmental Sustainability.

The goal of this project is to expand and enhance Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) theory and practice by coupling LCA tools with the spatial analytical functions of geographic information systems (GIS). The project will apply these coupled LCA-GIS tools to model inventory flows and assess impacts on biodiversity of land use dynamics associated with biofuel crop production. Whereas land use and biodiversity are acknowledged as important elements in evaluating the environmental sustainability of product systems, there are as yet no standard methods for accounting for them. Effects of land use on biodiversity depend on scale and spatial pattern of land use and land cover. In contrast, LCA is traditionally linear and aspatial, using average values for input and output flows. For types of impacts withM small land requirements, this averaging approach may be sufficient. For products with large land requirements such as agriculture and biofuels, however, the location and arrangement of production activities cannot be ignored. Combining LCA with GIS creates the potential to develop indicators that are meaningful for biodiversity and that can account for the spatially-dependent and non-linear consequences of land use change. This project will develop the tools to make this coupling of software systems feasible and practical for all LCA studies of product systems that have large land use requirements. GIS tools will be developed to generate inventory flows from land use in Life Cycle Inventory. Flow data will be integrated with ecological databases to create and compare various biodiversity characterization models and impact indicators. In addition to methodology and tool development, it will also conduct a multidisciplinary graduate seminar in environmental sustainability and impact assessment with LCA and GIS to train a cadre of industrial ecology graduate students in this cutting-edge integration of technologies. The intellectual merit of the proposed activity is twofold: overcoming the barriers to incorporating spatial differentiation in LCA methodology, and solving the omission of biodiversity concerns in LCA. Biofuel production has been chosen as a prototype product system for several reasons. Environmental, economic, and political concerns about fossil fuels have dramatically increased the demand for biofuel alternatives. Although the potential of biofuels to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and some other environmental impacts has been studied extensively, habitat and biodiversity consequences of largescale biofuel production systems have not been rigorously analyzed. Such impacts could be substantial and could be positive or negative depending on location-specific changes in land use and land management practices. However, the developed approach will be sufficiently general to be applicable to a wide range of production processes and product systems that require spatially-explicit analysis. The broader impacts of the project, therefore, are that it will enable the coupling of GIS and LCA more generally and that it will enhance LCA to more fully quantify environmental sustainability and the tradeoffs between biodiversity and other concerns.
---------------

Brad Hacker 7/15/07-6/30/11 $262,927
National Science Foundation, 0708934(HBN11)

Collaborative Research: How is Rifting Exhuming the Youngest HP/UHP Rocks on Earth?

At the Woodlark rift of eastern Papua New Guinea, an active oceanic spreading center terminates along strike into a continental rift. In this region of active and rapid continental extension, Late Miocene-Pliocene eclogites have been exhumed at cm/yr rates within the lower plates of metamorphic core complexes (MCCs). We propose a 5-year multidisciplinary project to address two key questions in continental dynamics: How does lithosphere rupture? How are HP/UHP terranes formed and exhumed? We will use eastern Papua New Guinea as a field laboratory to examine how the lithosphere has evolved petrologically, rheologically, and thermally during the transition from subduction to rifting and seafloor spreading. Geologic fieldwork will document the spatial distribution, temporal sequence, and kinematics of ductile to brittle fabrics in metamorphic, magmatic and sedimentary rocks of the conjugate rifted margins, the MCCs west of the active seafloor spreading rift tip, and the inferred youngest MCC (Dayman Dome). Analytical work will document the pressure-temperature-time deformation n evolution tion of exhumed rocks, as well as the melting conditions and sources that have given rise to volcanic rocks. A passive seismic deployment will image the crust and mantle beneath and north of MCCs where partially exhumed HP/UHP rocks may occur at depth. Rock physical properties modeling will integrate petrophysical lab measurements of HP/UHP field samples, electron back-scatter diffraction studies of lattice preferred orientations, and quantitative mineral-physical-properties calculations for determining seismic wave speeds of rocks. GPS surveys will provide direct measurements of horizontal strain rates associated with HP/UHP exhumation and microplate kinematics. Geodynamic modeling will numerically simulate MCC evolution and exhumation of HP/UHP rocks. All data will be integrated by tectonic synthesis to test end-member models proposed for the tectonic evolution of the region and address the two key questions above. The eastern Papua New Guinea HP/UHP terrane will be compared to similar terranes globally to assess whether exhumation mechanisms documented in this region can be applied to other HP/UHP terranes. Results will contribute to an improved understanding of the processes governing the origin, structure, composition, and dynamic evolution of continental building blocks. These processes include deformation localization within the crust, exhumation of UHP rocks, and the fundamental processes by which the Earth’s tectonic plates rift and rupture.
---------------

Brad Hacker 2/1/09-1/31/13 $227,664
National Science Foundation, 0838264(HBN13)

Collaborative Research: Testing Channel-Flow Models Using Middle-Crustal Rocks of North Himalayan Gneiss Domes

This project will investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of kinematics, vorticity (a measure of the relative contributions of pure and simple shear), finite strain, and deformation temperature in strongly deformed middle crustal rocks exposed in the North Himalayan gneiss domes, southern Tibet, using structural petrology, finite strain analysis, electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), and metamorphic monazite geochronology. The research is motivated by recently formulated thermal-mechanical channel flow/extrusion models which postulate that the middle crust exposed in the high Himalaya and southern Tibet was a low-viscosity, ductile material, bounded above and below by coeval normal- and thrust-sense shear zones, respectively, that flowed and extruded to the south. In light of these provocative models, it is time to test the channel flow hypothesis by determining whether the predicted low-viscosity channel is exposed in the North Himalayan gneiss domes and whether it shows the expected combination of southward flow and vertical thinning.

Flow within a channel can range from pure Couette flow to Poiseuille flow, or be a combination of the two. Couette (or linear) flow develops between rigid plates moving relative to one another and is characterized by simple shear (high vorticity number) with the highest velocities toward the top or bottom of the channel. Poiseuille (or parabolic) flow develops between stationary rigid plates in which a horizontal gradient in lithostatic pressure produces the highest velocities in the center of the channel and decreasing, but opposite, shear velocities toward the top and bottom of the channel. Poiseuille flow is characterized by high vorticity number (simple shear) at the top and bottom of the channel, decreasing vorticity number (mix of simple shear and pure shear or general shear) toward the center of the channel, and low vorticity number (pure shear) at the center of the channel.

This project will document the deformation vorticities, finite strain, temperatures, and timing during ductile flow, combined with existing thermobarometric, geochronologic, and thermochronologic data, will provide a comprehensive spatial, thermal, and temporal history of deformation and flow in middle crustal rocks, southern Tibet. Furthermore, our studies, combined with similar published and ongoing studies in middle crustal rocks exposed in the high Himalaya, will provide an unprecedented view of middle crustal flow parallel to the transport direction over a distance of 50100 km. Characterization of deformation over a broad range of spatial, thermal, and temporal scales is critical to testing models of middle crustal channel flow/extrusion within a collisional orogen and will provide invaluable insight into the role of the middle crust in the geodynamic development of the HimalayanTibetaan orogenic belt, and orogenic belts in general.
---------------

Bradley Hacker 03/01/08-02/28/12 $279,279
National Science Foundation, 0745620(HBN03)

Using Mineral Physics to Interpret Seismic Anisotropy of the Lower Crust Collaborative Research: Using Mineral Physics to Interpret Seismic Anisotropy of Basin & Range Crust George Zandt, Arizona & Bradley Hacker, UCSB

Rock samples will be studied from two xenolith pipes and three crustal sections in the Basin and Range. Electron-backscatter diffraction will be used to measure orientations of all crystals in representative samples. Single-crystal stiffness data will be used to calculate the elasticities of the samples. These elasticities will be combined with rock abundance and structure data collected in the field to yield bulk km-scale elasticities for each of the five study sites. Armed with km-scale elasticities for the five study sites plus elasticities for the constituent lithologies we will interpret the anisotropy of the Basin and Range lower crust measured from EarthScope’s USArray.
---------------

Bradley Hacker 1/1/06-12/31/10 $138,744
National Science Foundation, EAR-0545399(HBN02)

Collaborative Research: EarthScope integrated investigation of Cascadia subduction zone tremor, structure and process

We propose an integrated Earthscope field experiment in the Cascadia subduction zone to elucidate the relationship between water transport, aseismic slip, episodic tremor, and arc magmatism. Globally, Cascadia represents an end-member of subduction in that some of the youngest and warmest lithosphere on Earth is being subducted, leading to predictions that the downgoing plate is dehydrating at unusually shallow depth. Nevertheless, a volcanic arc exists with abundant H2O in some magmas, indicating that there must exist pathways by which H2O travels through the entire subduction system. Our ultimate aim is to explore the processing of H2O in subduction zones using the tools of seismology, geodesy and petrology, and to integrate these results with complementary constraints from geodynamics and geochemistry. Seismic imaging will illuminate the descending oceanic plate where it metamorphoses and illuminate the mantle wedge where fluids may be producing hydrous phases such as serpentine or, beneath the volcanic arc, primary magmas. We design our experiment to traverse the one part of the Cascadia system where earthquakes extend to nearly 100 km depth, so we can investigate the relationship between the release of fluids and the generation of Benioff-zone earthquakes. The transport of fluids may be also a primary driver for episodic tremor and slip (ETS), a phenomenon observed in Cascadia perhaps better than anywhere else on the planet. We will integrate measurements of tremor from known source regions with slip distributions derived from GPS data and existing long-baseline tiltmeters. Together with the proposed seismic imaging, these observations will yield an unparalleled data set for determining the relationship between tremor, slip and the regions where imaging indicates metamorphism of the down-going plate or hydration of the overlying mantle wedge.

The basic experiment has four components: a broadband imaging array of flexible-array instruments integrated with Bigfoot, three small-aperture seismic arrays near sources of non-volcanic tremor, analysis of the PBO and PANGA GPS data sets to define the details of episodic slip events, and integrative modeling. The broadband array features a dense transect across the part of the Cascadia subduction system that includes intermediate-depth earthquakes and the Nisqually earthquake hypocenter, in a staggered configuration to allow along-strike effects to be tested. That will be complemented by 2 cross lines, one crossing the slab where the crust appears to be dehydrating, and one in the Cascades foothills to sample the roots of the arc. The tremor and GPS arrays are collocated with the broadband imaging as much as possible, to allow simultaneous location of tremor and slip and imaging of their source region. These data will be subject to the gamut of analyses appropriate to such data, including array analysis for wave-front orientation of tremor waves, migration of teleseismic scattered waves, tomographic images of Vp, Vs and Q, shear-wave splitting, earthquake relocation, investigation of high-frequency phases interacting with the slab, and specialized GPS processing designed for the detection and quantification of transient events. The interpretations will be made in conjunction with detailed petrological–thermal models of the Cascadia subduction system. These results will place new constraints on the dehydration pathways within the down-going plate, the relationship between structure and seismicity at intermediate depths, the relationship between transient strain events and structure, the temperature, melt and volatile content of the mantle wedge, and the growth of continental crust.
---------------

Bradley Hacker 9/15/09-8/31/12 $477,500
John Cottle
James Mattinson
Frank Spera
David Valentine
National Science Foundation, 0923552(HBN16)

MRI: Acquisition of an Electron Microprobe for UCSB Researchers and Educators

This project supports the acquisition electron-probbe microanalyzer (EPMA); which will transform our ability to investigate a broad range of Earth science questions. In metamorphic petrology, the EPMA will be used to address key tectonic problems such as the exhumation of ultrahigh-pressure rocks, melting of sediments in subduction zones, flow of the lower crust, and heating and cooling histories of xenoliths. It will also be used to address methodological issues such as linking thermobarometry and accessory phase chemistry to geochronology. In igneous petrology, we will use the EPMA to understand magma-body dynamics through analyses of crystal zoning, to test thermodynamic models of trace-element distributions, and to understand magma PT paths through analysis of glass inclusions. In sedimentary petrology, EPMA can be used to understand erosion and sediment transport during orogenesis, and to understand surface processes and shallow-crustal deformation by providing a superior tuff-correlation tool. In geochronology, a modern EPMA is central to making progress in using rutile as a thermochronometer, characterizing the complexity of phases such as rutile and sphene prior to age determination, interpreting U-Pb REE ages in light of garnet trace-element zoning, understanding complex dissolution systematics and behavior during chemical-abrasion TIMS of zircon and monazite, and in characterizing standards for laser-ablation ICPMS. In structural geology, EPMA (and ICP) measurements of Ti in quartz will give us a previously unexploited means for assigning temperatures to deformation mechanisms. In geobiology, EPMA may help break new ground in assessing how microbes acquire energy from sources physically bound or concealed in solids, identifying intracellular inclusions in methanotrophs, and identifying the imprint of anaerobic methanotrophs in the geologic record.
---------------

Bradley Hacker 6/1/11-5/31/12 $143,467
Stacia Gordon
National Science Foundation, EAR-1008760(HBN17)

Collaborative Research: The Suturing Process: Insight from the India-Asia Collision Zone.

The suturing of continental fragments following the subduction of intervening oceanic lithosphere is a fundamental process in lithospheric dynamics and the shaping and growth of Earth’s continents. However, our understanding of this fundamental process remains limited. Can we use geological observations in some particularly well-exposed suture zones to make general statements about how landscapes and sedimentary basins evolve during suturing? What geodynamic processes lead to decreases in plate convergence rate? Are Mediterranean-style rollback of remnant oceanic lithosphere and opening of marginal oceanic basins characteristic of all or most pre-climax collision zones? Do presuturing ophiolite obduction and intraoceanic arc–continental margin interactions leave predictable signatures in suture zones? How is the upper continental plate preconditioned by pre-suturing tectonism and how does the upper plate evolve during the transition from oceanic to continental subduction? Is there a predictable mode of deformation in the downgoing continental plate? And what do we expect the balance to be among continental subduction and erosive removal of mass from a collisional orogenic system? We propose to address such questions through a 4-year investigation of the archetypal India–Asia collision zone (IACZ) in southern Tibet that involves 19 investigators and 14 graduate students from 9 different institutions. Techniques to be employed include structural geology, stratigraphy, geochronology, thermochronology, stable and radiogenic isotope geochemistry, igneous and metamorphic petrology, paleomagnetism, and geodynamical modeling. We aim to determine the: (1) evolution of paleogeography and paleoelevation during the transition from oceanic subduction to mature continental collision; (2) geodynamic processes that caused marked decreases in India–Asia convergence rate; (3) role of Mediterranean-style opening and closing of marginal basins prior to terminal collision; (4) metamorphic evolution of lower-plate (Indian) rocks in response to ophiolite emplacement, possible intra-oceanic arc collision, and continent collision; (5) role of pre-collisional Andean-style magmatism and deformation in preconditioning the upper-plate lithosphere and how this Andean-style system evolved during continent collision; (6) paleogeography of the Neo-Tethys margins and the history of subduction, exhumation, thickening, and underthrusting/rollback of Greater Indian continental lithosphere; and (7) spatial pattern, magnitude, and history of erosion and sediment dispersal. Our aims are ambitious but feasible because of the presence of rich, but as yet untapped geological records of appropriate age (Cretaceous to Miocene) adjacent to and within the India–Asia suture zone. Geodynamical modeling of suturing processes will run in parallel with the geological studies; this vital effort will help guide the evolving project. Whereas the IACZ will be used as our lab, we expect that our project deliverables (3-D pre-, syn-, and post-suturing reconstructions at the lithosphere scale) will provide fresh, well-constrained, and testable ideas about the suturing process and its role in continental crustal genesis.
---------------

Bradley Hacker 8/1/09-7/31/12 $341,828
James Mattinson
National Science Foundation, EAR-0838269(HBN15)

How Does the Lower Crust Thicken and Grow During Continent Collisions? A Case Study of the Pamir

Continent collisions, past and present, are studied to understand their influences on plate driving forces, the refining of the continental crust, geochemical recycling, topography, climate change, etc. For many years, and for good reasons, Tibet has been the preferred site of study. Tibet, however, has one significant limitation: it has few exposures of Cenozoic lower crustal rocks. In contrast, the Pamir the western extension of the Tibetan Plateau has multiple domes s exposing Cenozoic lower crustal rocks. The Pamir thus present an important opportunity for understanding the role of the lower crust in continent collisions. This proposal focuses on determining how the lower crust thickened and grew during the Cenozoic evolution of the Pamir, with the expectation that these findings will apply to continent collisions in general. There are two endmember models for crustal thickening and growth during collision, a ‘brittle’ model el based on folding and imbrication of the crust and subduction of mantle lithosphere, and a ‘ductile’ model that calls upon large-scale flow of the lower crust in response to gravitational potential energy gradients. We can test these models in the Pamir within the framework of three hypotheses: The Pamir lower crust was 1) thickened and exhumed by local intracontinental shortening during the Cenozoic, 2) thickened by Cenozoic long-distance flow and exhumed by local intracontinental shortening during the Cenozoic, or 3) thickened and exhumed mostly before the India–Asia collision. These hypotheses can be evaluated by studying the Pamir domes and measuring the distribution in space and time of ages of magmatism, ages of crustal thickening, ages of exhumation, depths of exhumation, and deformation associated with formation and exhumation of the domes. This is a collaborative work: UCSB researchers will use U/Pb dating of zircon to determine crystallization ages of plutons, Lu-Hf and Sm-Nd dating to measure crustal thickening ages, and thermobarometry to determine exhumation depths; Freiberg researchers will use 40Ar/39Ar, fission-track, and (U-Th)/He/He dating to constrain thermal histories, and conduct structural analysis to determine the deformation histories of the domes.
---------------

Bradley Hacker 8/1/09-7/31/12 $391,382
James Mattinson
Andrew Kylander-Clark
National Science Foundation, 0911485(HBN14A)

The Dynamics of UHP Tectonism: Does the Western Gneiss Region Consist of Multiple (U)HP Blocks With Different Histories? The Dynamics of UHP Tectonism: Does the Western Gneiss Region Consist of Multiple (U)HP Blocks With Different Histories?

Understanding the formation and exhumation of ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) rocks continues to be one of the outstanding tectonic questions of our time because of the impact such processes have had on the exchange of material between the crust and mantle, the generation and collapse of mountain belts, the formation and processing of continental crust, and tectonic plate motions. A major advance would be to understand the number, sizes, and histories of the various blocks that make up a UHP terrane.

This proposal is to test whether UHP orogens form through repeated subduction of the same tectonic unit or through sequential subduction of different units, by examining a specific example, the Western Gneiss Region of Norway. Following careful petrology, zircon genesis will be assessed by optical and back-scattered electron petrography, cathodoluminescence, trace-element abundances, and Raman spectroscopy. Single grains and grain fragments will be analyzed by TIMS, select populations by CA-TIMS, and inherited cores by LA-MC-ICP-MS. Following reconnaissance SIMS dating, single grains and grain fragments will be analyzed by TIMS. The strength of this approach lies in its use of state-of-the-art zircon geochronology and petrology, collaboration with researchers at cutting-edge facilities, and our familiarity with other ultrahigh-pressure orogens. The impact of this research should be considerable and broadly applicable because of the archetypal nature of the Norwegian UHP terrane.
---------------

Lee Hannah 6/1/09-12/30/12 $300,000
Frank Davis
California Energy Commission, 500-08-020(HL1P01)

Advanced Modeling of the Biological Effects of Climate Change in California.

Among the greatest challenges currently facing modeling of biological effects of climate change are those of temporal and spatial scale. Current models of species responses to climate change are generally at scales of 5-100 km, and use climate projections with single windows of 50-80 years, which is a very coarse resolution relative to the generation times and processes of plants and animals. Therefore, moving down in spatial scale and incorporating multiple time steps opens many productive research pathways for collaboration between climatologists and biologists. Refining spatial and temporal scale comes with a series of challenges. Computational time increases exponentially rather than linearly with dimensions of scale. Stochastic processes become much more important as well, leading to multiple outcomes as the model uncertainty increases.

This research program will apply the BioMove model and other tools to climate change assessment at biologically relevant scales. It will pioneer new methods of working at fine scale, as well as test the established model BioMove in these applications. Products of this research will include an analysis that will identify optimal networks of sites important for the conservation of species through multiple time-steps as climate changes in California. The project will also improve fire modeling, develop a better understanding of vegetation regeneration and fire interactions at fine scale, develop methods at annual temporal scales and create solutions for temporal, spatial and computation problems.
---------------

Lee Hannah 6/15/10-12/31/11 $71,769
California Energy Commission, POCE01-T06(HL1P03)

Statewide Climate Change Impact Assessment for Conservation and Biodiversity
Subtask 2.2 Projected Ranges of Dominant Plant Taxa under Future Climates

Projected ranges of dominant plant taxa under future climates will be generated using a new set of downscaled climatologies that build on Energy Commission climate scenarios and provide estimates of water deficit at fine spatial scales. Results of species distribution models will be compared with projections for vegetation type distribution generated by dynamic global vegetation models (MC1). The projections generated by this project will provide a set of standardized plant response maps that can be used for wildlife habitat modeling, integrated into fire models, and used to inform the analysis of mechanisms of vegetation change.
This research will:
• Develop a set of downscaled climatologies for the state that will be made available to all project participants. These will be prepared using methodologies from the United States Geological Survey (USGS).
• Determine downscaled water balance variables from various climate models.
• Create a set of standardized plant response maps that can be used for wildlife habitat modeling, integrated into fire models, and used to inform the analysis of mechanisms of vegetation change. • Provide data sets in a format that can be used for the GoogleEarth applications.
• Prepare a technical report on the modeled effects of climate change on California ecosystems.
---------------

Laura Hess 3/16/09-12/31/11 $441,708
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, 1367520(HLP01)

An Inundated Wetlands Earth System Data Record: Global Monitoring of Wetland Extent and Dynamics

Year 1 work will focus on 1) documentation of classification system and procedures, 2) setting up data processing infrastructure, and 3) generating products for the central Amazon region. An LCCS2-based classification system for wetland cover and inundation, cross-referenced to ALOS K&C wetlands products, will be developed. Optimal segmentation parameters for ScanSAR and Fine Beam data will be assessed, using empirical metrics. Procedures will be established for watershed-based low-resolution assessment of seasonality of precipitation and river stage from existing datasets.Using existing validated algorithms for tropical wetlands mapping, wetland extent, vegetation structure, and seasonal inundation will be mapped for the central Amazon region and high-water validation datasets will be assembled.
---------------

Patricia Holden 10/14/08-3/31/11 $340,000
City of Santa Barbara, 22,926(HPP10)

Microbial Source Tracking Protocol Development.

Santa Barbara, like many urbanized coastal communities in California, frequently determines that fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) concentrations in surf zone water exceed State of California AB411 criteria. This project involved research in support of determining origins of FIB associated with human fecal pollution (sewage) in storm drains that discharge to coastal creeks flowing to Santa Barbara beaches. The overall goals were to determine origins of sewage contamination in storm drains during dry weather, and to compile a protocol for other communities to use for similar source tracking purposes, based on the results of this research.

Research involved field work, field sampling of water and fecal samples, and laboratory analysis of field samples. Methods for alternative sewage indicators were researched, and selected methods were recruited and tested for their utility in assessing sewage in storm drains. A novel approach was developed for studying exfiltration (sanitary to storm sewer) that involved dispensing rhodamine WT dye into sanitary sewers and detecting a fluorescence signal continuously, in real time, in storm drain manholes using a field-deployable, battery-driven submersible optical probe with data logger. The specificity of two similar, widely-used approaches for quantifying sewage contamination in water samples through quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) analysis of DNA markers in human waste was tested. This involved collecting fecal samples from various non-target (raccoon, gull, rat, dog, cat) hosts and target (human, septage, sewage) materials, then comparing the specificity of two popular qPCR-based approaches for quantifying human markers. Equipment items for flow measurement in storm drains and automated continuous sampling were researched and selected, then deployed at two locations for 72 hour campaigns to better understand temporal variation in human waste contamination and in storm drain flow. A high-density microarray of DNA probes, the PhyloChip, was used to assess differences in fecal source bacterial communities for the non-target (as above) and human-associated (as above) fecal samples. The fecal source bacterial community profiles by PhyloChip were then compared to water sample bacterial communities for samples collected in various sites of interest based on historical FIB and/or human DNA-marker contamination. A GIS database was assembled with microbiological data—both historical from recent studies conducted by UCSB for the City and also from this study—displayed along with storm drains, sanitary sewers and streets with the latter three types of data already contained in the City GIS database as separate layers. The GIS database was used to generate several products for visualizing information and for planning remediation and research. Standard operating procedures (SOPs) were developed for all procedures and assays found to be most useful in tracking human waste in storm drains. A protocol for implementing these procedures was designed for others to use in similar studies. The conclusions of this study regard how communities, based on our experiences in this research, should best approach source tracking human waste in storm drains. Several peer-reviewed publications have resulted from this work; several others are in revision or preparation.
---------------

Patricia Holden 3/1/10-2/28/11 $15,000
City of Santa Barbara, 383517(HPP12)

Canine Scent and Microbial Source Tracking in Santa Barbara, CA.

Advances in microbial source tracking have enabled communities to gain more information about the specific hosts that may be responsible for elevated indicator bacteria levels in recreational waters. However, even when human-specific contamination can be traced to general areas, finding exact origins remains challenging due to sample costs and processing times. This study sought to test the use of a new qualitative tool for source tracking, canine scent tracking (sewage-sniffing dogs), to provide real-time results and low sample cost for illicit discharge detection. This research fulfilled a contract with the City of Santa Barbara (City)
to evaluate canine scent tracking as a water quality tool for storm water managers and water quality researchers. The low cost, rapid, and real-time nature of canine-scent tracking—as a screening approach for sewage-contaminated waters—make if an attractive and tractable tool for small communities. However, while canine scent tracking is invaluable in criminal forensics, its use in environmental forensics, particularly with regards to its accuracy in revealing sewage in environmental waters, has been unknown. The collaboration included Scott and Karen Reynolds of Environmental Canine Services, LLC (ECS), along with their trained dogs Sable and Logan. The research mainly involved determining if sampling locations contaminated with sewage, as previously determined by quantitative DNA-based microbial source tracking, traditional indicator bacteria tests, and chemical fingerprinting, were indicated as contaminated by canine scent tracking. Another objective was to determine if canine scent tracking can be used to further locate or bracket, sources of human waste in a storm drain network that have been confirmed by microbial source tracking. Canine responses were compared against traditional wastewater indicators, illicit discharge detection tracers, and emerging human-specific waste markers in storm drain locations in Santa Barbara, CA. Canine scent tracking was also tested for effectiveness in locating contaminated inputs to storm drains, addressing a specific hypothesis of contamination arising from illicit dumping from recreational vehicles, and conducting systematic watershed reconnaissance. Based on the statistical and qualitative results presented in this pilot-scale study, canine scent tracking is a tool that should be expanded for use by researchers and storm water managers.
---------------

Patricia Holden 07/01/10 - 03/31/13 $573,500
Southern California Coastal Water Project (SCCWP)(HPP13)

SIPP

This is the Source Identification Protocol Project (SIPP), a multi-institutional effort between the Southern California Coastal Water Research Project (SCCWRP), UCLA, UCSB, and Stanford University, funded through SCCWRP by the State of California using Proposition 84 funds. The project aims to develop and implement source identification (ID) protocols to enhance the Stat of California Clean Beach Initiative grant applicants’ ability to design and submit better projects for Proposition 84 funding. The program includes (1) selecting reliable DNA-based source ID protocols, and (2) testing the methods to find bacterial sources at high priority beaches. The knowledge will be transferred to local agencies and an infrastructure will be created so that future source investigations can be carried out more consistently and successfully. In addition, a source identification manual for AB538 (Assembly Bill 538) will be created and results will be disseminated.
---------------

Patricia Holden 7/1/08-8/31/10 $67,375
University of California, SB090039(HPP09)

Fate, Persistence, and Source Identification of Pathogens, Pathogen Indicator Bacteria, and Human Specific Markers in Coast Beach and Wetland Sediment of Southern California.

Fecal pollution, human and non-human, is a major cause of water impairment in coastal areas. However, our understanding fecal pollution in coastal ecosystems, as well as our ability to identify and mitigate its sources, is greatly limited by the uncertainties surrounding its behavior in two major reservoirs: wetlands and beach sediments. Fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) and pathogens can enter coastal creeks and rivers from upland sources, but near-shore beach sources are also significant reservoirs, and coastal wetlands have been shown to both increase and decrease the levels of FIB in water. This field and laboratory based study was developed as an examination and assessment of sources, levels, and pathways of pathogens in coastal wetlands and sediments, a priority research area. The research had two core focus areas. The first focus area involved conducting field surveys in tandem with laboratory analysis for human specific markers in four coastal wetlands and beaches. The second focus area was a laboratory based, systematic investigation of factors contributing to pathogen and pathogen indicator transport and fate in sediments. This research was multi-institutional, involving UCR, UCLA, and UCSB. UCSB performed primary field and laboratory research at the Carpinteria Salt Marsh Reserve in support of the first focus area. UCLA was a collaborating institution. Field sampling was designed to determine the origins of fecal indicator bacteria, the presence of human waste markers, and spatiotemporal patterns relative to tidal influences. Human waste markers were discovered and tidal stage was related to fecal indicator bacterial levels. Data analysis is ongoing in support of preparing a manuscript for peer review.
---------------
Patricia Holden 4/1/10-7/31/11 $18,986
US Geological Survey, G10PX01310(HPP11)

Microbial Communities in Malibu Lagoon.

Malibu, CA is a southern California coastal community whose domestic wastewater is managed through on-site treatment. The US Geological Survey (USGS) Research contracted with the Holden Lab at University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB) to perform microbial community analysis of water samples in the Fall of 2009 for a prior study of the Malibu Lagoon. Because microbial communities may be altered by the introduction of effluent or wastewater (i.e. via direct inoculation of waste-associated microbes or via introduction of nutrients or other chemicals that could exert selective pressures on indigenous populations), and because microbial communities can be interrogated using culture-independent methods yielding dense datasets (amenable to powerful statistical analysis by multivariate methods), assaying microbial community composition from water samples at suspected impacted, positive control, and negative control sites can comparatively reveal the degree of impact. The objective of this project was to analyze microbial communities that exist in water samples collected by the USGS at Malibu Lagoon in the spring of 2010. The microbial community analysis data were provided to the USGS for their statistical analysis and for comparison to other datasets they generated. The community analysis approach used here was Terminal Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (TRFLP) analysis; additionally, one other DNA-based source tracking method (qPCR of a human-specific Bacteriodales gene), and qPCR of Enterococcus sp., were applied to extracted DNA to aid in assessing fecal contamination of the water samples. The USGS has prepared a manuscript for publication based on this research.
---------------

Chen Ji 1/1/09-12/31/10 $64,766
Department of Interior, G09AP00023(JCU05)

Global Earthquake Characterization on irregular fault surfaces, Collaborative Research with UCSB and USGS.

Recent developments in global broadband seismic instrumentation and in inverse methods have made it possible to routinely study the earthquake slip history based on teleseismic observations, and proceed to predict the local damage [e.g., Ji, et al., 2004]. However, fast finite fault solutions were generally limited by the simple parameterization to the fault geometry, i.e., planar fault planes with constant fault strike and dip angles inferred from point source CMT solutions. Considering the down-dip variation of the fault dip angle and using a more appropriate velocity structure usually reshapes the inverted slip distribution and sometimes ends up a multiple times difference in inverted slip, e.g., the 2007 Solomon Islands earthquake. Correct representation of fault geometry is also crucial for predicting the local damage and tsunami excitation. Attempts have been made to predefine the fault geometry using relocated seismic catalog and moment tensors [Hayes and Wald, 2008]. But it is still lack of finite fault inverse algorithm which could easily incorporate the irregular fault plane. In a pilot study supported by the USGS, we are developing the feasible mesh algorithm to consider the complex fault geometry. Here, we propose to improve the solutions of quick finite fault inversion procedure and the tsunami predicting capability by considering the effect of the irregular fault surfaces.

---------------

Chen Ji 1/1/10-12/31/11 $68,846
Department of Interior, G10AP00010(JCU06)

Inversion and Prediction of Ground Motion ofr the 2009 L'Aquilla Italy Mw 6.3 Earthquake

The 6 April 2009 L’Aquila MW 6.3 earthquake provides a watershed of new data for normal faulting earthquakes. It is the best-recorded normal faulting earthquake in terms of near-source accelerograms. Additionally it has static field measurements that include both GPS and InSAR. There are 17 strong motion accelerographs within 50 km of the surface projection of the fault. Among them 10 are within 20 km and four accelerographs are on the hanging wall above the fault plane. Prior to this earthquake, there were very few near-source accelerograms for normal faulting earthquakes. In the Next Generation of Attenuation relations Excel spreadsheet that has the metadata for the accelerograms [Chiou et al., 2008] only 12 normal-faulting earthquakes (MW?6.0) are listed; from these events there are only 28 strong motion records within 50 km of the fault. Thus the results of this work will be an important addition to the dataset of normal faulting earthquakes. The basic objective of this proposed research is to invert the strong motion, regional seismograms, GPS vectors and InSAR data to determine the kinematic parameters that describe the faulting. We will then use that faulting model to predict the broadband ground motion by summing empirical Green’s functions based on the aftershocks recorded on the accelerographs. For the mainshock we have obtained all of the strong motion data, all of the regional broadband seismograms and the regional 3D velocity structure in a 100 km x 100 km area that encompasses the epicentral region. Through our cooperation with Italian scientists (M. Cocco and R. Paolucci) at Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) in both Rome and Milano we will obtain the GPS and InSAR data. Focal mechanisms have already been published for the aftershocks with ML?4.0. To get a better description of the velocity structure in the epicentral region we will collaborate with an Italian scientist (G. De Luca) at the National Laboratory of Gran Sasso of National Institut of Nuclear Physics who has been operating a local seismic array in the Aterno Valley and has published on the local velocity structure and site effects. With these data we have the fundamental building blocks to start our analysis.
Care has to be taken in various steps of the analysis and multiple approaches are possible for each step. We will explore various approaches and perform comprehensive analysis for this important normalfaulting data set. We will use two different nonlinear inversion methods [Ji et al., 2002; Liu and Archuleta, 2004] to invert the data. We will include the static measurements (GPS and InSAR) in a two-step approach, vis-àvis, Page et al., [2009] and Custódio et al., [2009], and also as a joint inversion, vis-à-vis, Ji et al., [2002]. Given the excellent InSAR data, it will be important to determine what constraints it puts on the temporal evolution of the faulting. It is well documented that many different faulting models can produce equally good low-frequency waveform fits to the seismic data. The critical questions revolve around how the velocity structure, the station distribution, the band-limited data, etc. produce uncertainty in the spatial
and temporal parameters of the faulting model. We will address these questions as we find the faulting models that are consistent with all the data. The faulting models found by inversions are limited to low frequencies, generally a maximum around 1.0 Hz. By using isochrones we will do forensics on the models to evaluate their ability to predict the timing and relative amplitudes of peak velocities and acceleration. This will provide an independent check on the rupture velocity and spatial distribution of slip. To complete the study we will use aftershocks as empirical Green’s functions. We will sum the empirical Green’s functions, weighted by the slip distribution, and with the rupture time that was determined from the inversion. With this approach we can generate broadband synthetic time histories forcomparison with the data. We will use Fourier amplitude spectra and Husid plots to evaluate the comparison between synthetics and the data.
---------------

Chen Ji 7/1/09-12/31/12 $361,394
National Science Foundation, 0911769(JCN01)

Kinematic and Dynamic Rupture Characterazation of the 2008 Ms 8 Wenchuan Earthquake Sequence.

The 12 May 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquake is the largest intra-continental earthquake recorded by modern geophysical observations. It ruptured unilaterally about 250 km beneath the predominantly northeast-trending Longmen Shan, a steep high mountain range that bounds the Tibetan Plateau to the northwest and the Sichuan Basin to the southeast. The strong ground shaking caused over 5 million buildings to collapse and nearly 70,000 fatalities. The occurrence of this major earthquake surprised most of the geoscience community because the source region historically lacks large earthquakes and has a very low slip rate based on geological and geodetic data. Preliminary analysis revealed a highly complex rupture process where the seismic moment was roughly equally partitioned on the sub-parallel low-angle Pengguan and the high-angle Beichuan faults—a feature that has never been documented in the literature. This event has few large aftershocks, which might be a common feature of large earthquakes in the Tibetan plateau and its vicinity though the reason for this is not clear. This catastrophic earthquake and its aftershock sequence will be investigated with seismic, geodetic and geological observations. The rupture process will be constrained to match the tectonic background and surface observations, and at the same time be consistent with rupture dynamics that includes a constitutive friction law. This research addresses the following questions: i) Are the rupture characteristics of this event different from other well studied thrust earthquakes, such as 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, perhaps reflecting its abnormal tectonic loading process? ii) How could the thrust rupture initiate on the high angle Beichuan fault? What effect did the nucleation have on the subsequent rupture? iii) How did the ruptures on two faults dynamically interact? iv) What are the characteristics of the ground motion excited by this earthquake? Are the ground motions unusual compared with other large thrust events?
---------------

Chen Ji 2/1/07-1/31/12 $70,000
University of Southern California, 120044(JCP01)

SCEC3 Participation: Finite fault parameterization of intermediate and large earthquakes in Southern California

With the support of SCEC, we will implement the quick finite fault software package, which is currently used to monitor the global large earthquakes, to routinely study finite fault parameters of the intermediate and large earthquakes in the California. This includes following four tasks:
•   Modify the data processing programs to use realtime data flow from the SCEC STP data server.
•   Construct the Green’s function banks for 1D smooth SoCal model, and lookup tables for each CISN station which stores the differential P and S time between the 1D SoCal model and the 3D Hauksson Model.
•   Modify the finite fault inverse method to include frequency dependent 3D “timeshift” and “AAF” (amplitude amplification factor) corrections, e.g., Tan and Helmberger [2007].
•   Revisit two events, 1999 Mw 7.1 Hector Mine and 2003 Big Bear earthquakes, to benchmark the system.
---------------

Chen Ji 2/10/07-1/31/12 $24,000
Ralph Archuleta
University of Southern California, 120044(JCP02)

A Comprehensive Kinematic Investigation of 2010 Mw 7.3 El Mayor Earthquake by Joint Inverting Teleseismic, Strong Motion.

This project will:
1) Finishing the kinematic study of the 2010 El Mayor-Cacupah earthquake by joint inverting seismic and geodetic data. The research of study will focus on the interpretation of the abnormal Rayleigh waves at GPS station P491 and P492 as well as the joint inversion with additional INSAR data.
2) Developing a software package to invert the earthquake source as multiple point sources using the local and regional surface waves with period from 20 s to 50 s. All algorithms would be optimized with OpenMP techniques so that the result could be available in a few minutes. Further development also includes the strategy to quickly construct an irregular fault plane with help of inverted multiple point source solutions.
---------------

Charles Jones 8/1/07-7/31/11 $309,000
Leila Carvalho
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NA07OAR4310211(CJB05)

Understanding the mechanisms of onset and demise of the South American Monsoon system.

Intense convective activity and heavy precipitation begins in northwestern South America in late August and marches progressively southeastward until it reaches the Brazilian highland. The wet season peaks in the core of the Amazon in austral summer, while deep convection begins to weaken over the Amazon in early March and the dry season persists throughout most of the austral winter. It has been increasingly common to refer to this strong summertime convective activity, intense precipitation, and large-scale atmospheric circulation features as the South American monsoon system (SAMS).

One of the main goals of the Climate Prediction Program for the Americas (CPPA) is “to improve operational monitoring and prediction of intraseasonal to interannual climate and hydrologic variations in the Americas through improved physical process understanding and modeling”. SAMS has been extensively investigated over the years and its variability is recognized to play a major role in the climate of tropical and subtropical South America. While some mechanisms for the onset and demise of SAMS have been proposed, a thorough understanding of the dominant dynamical processes determining the migration of SAMS still elude the research community. This proposal will develop extensive observational and diagnostic analyses to improve and unify our current understanding and monitoring of the onset and demise of SAMS. The specific objectives include:
I.   Development of metrics to characterize onset/demise of SAMS
II.   Investigation of mechanisms associated with precursors of early/late onsets of SAMS
III.   Analysis of regional impacts on rivers basins in the Cerrado regions
IV.   Examine the ability of climate models participating in the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) realistically simulate SAMS variability

---------------
Charles Jones               7/1/08-12/31/11                   $159,267
Leila Carvalho
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NA08OAR4310698(JC1B06)

Probabilistic Forecasts of Extreme Events and Weather Hazards Over the United States

The occurrence of extreme weather events such as heavy precipitation, high surface wind speeds and low temperatures are frequently associated with severe and hazardous conditions with major socio-economic impacts. This project aims to contribute to the goals of the NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB) Program by carrying on a study of probabilistic forecasts of extreme events and weather hazards over the contiguous United States, Alaska and Hawaii during winter. The project uses retrospective forecasts (RF) from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) model to specifically develop probabilistic forecasts of extreme events in precipitation, surface temperature and wind speeds on 30-day lead times. Second, an important and novel aspect of this project is the probabilistic forecasts of winter hazards conditioned on the probability of extreme events in precipitation, surface temperature and wind speeds. This component of the project will make use of historical records of weather related hazards in the U.S. and available from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The proposed research consists of four objectives:
I.    Evaluate the skills of CFS RF probabilistic forecasts of extreme events of precipitation, surface temperature and wind speeds on 30-day lead times.
II.    Develop probabilistic forecasts of extreme events of precipitation, surface temperature and wind speeds on 30-day lead times.
III.   Develop conditional probabilistic forecasts of winter hazards over the U.S.
IV. Implement experimental probabilistic forecasts of extreme events of precipitation, surface temperature, wind speeds and winter hazards over the U.S.
---------------

Charles Jones 7/1/06-6/30/11 $95,000
Dar Roberts
Department of Agriculture, 06-JV-11272165-057(CJP06)

Analysis of Santa Ana Climatology for Southern California.

The work described in this agreement will accomplish fire meteorology research objectives in PSW-4402. It is supported by the National Fire Plan, and benefits fire management planning for incidents and prescribed fire operations. The specific research problem addressed by the study is the development of high resolution weather modeling tools for fire management applications. The work also includes a science delivery task to pipeline weather model outputs to fire managers.

The occurrence of Santa Ana wind events in Southern California significantly enhances the damage potential of wildfires under such conditions. Santa Ana winds register higher than average speeds and drier than normal humidities, either one of which creates favorable burning conditions. This research will develop greater spatial and temporal details of Santa Ana events than currently available climatologies for Southern California. It will also explore new methods to model Santa Anas for fire management applications.
Objectives
1.   Investigate spatial and temporal variability of Santa Ana events over southern California.
2.   Develop downscaling methods to increase spatial resolution of existing models.
3.   Compare simulations as described with an improved version of RAMS developed in Brazil.
4.   Provide assistance to unit's other cooperators engaged in extracting MM5 forecasts for FARSITE.
---------------

Arturo Keller 10/1/09-9/30/10 $24,994
Electric Power Research Institute, 20100411(KAP22)

Using WARMF to Support USDA Nutrient Trading Tool.

For this project, the Nutrient Trading Tool (NTT), a field scale calculation tool for phosphorus and nitrogen load reductions, will be calibrated and verified with available data from the already established and functioning Great Miami River (GMR) water quality credit trading program in southern Ohio by Dr. Ali Saleh, (Texas Institute for Environmental Research (TiAER), Tarleton State University). In addition to NTT’s load reduction calculation features, options for coupling economic modules to NTT for conservation practices will be identified and defined by Dr. Saleh. A N2O calculation tool (developed by Michigan State University under EPRI funding) for nitrous oxide emissions reductions in agriculture will also be examined for integrated use with NTT. To determine watershed attributes necessary to define trading conditions, integration of NTT with the EPRI-funded Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF) modeling analyses in the GMR will be evaluated.
---------------

Arturo Keller 1/1/10-12/31/11 $90,000
Electric Power Research Institute, EP-P34405/C15680(KAP23)

Targeted Watersheds Grant for Water Quality Trading in Ohio River Basin.

Water quality trading (WQT) is a flexible tool offering a mechanism to achieve additional economic and environmental benefits when used in conjunction with traditional command and control approaches. A permitted discharger facing high costs to accommodate new growth or meet more stringent effluent limits can “trade” for discharge reduction credits generated by another source having lower costs (e.g., an agricultural producer implementing conservation practices). Developing a regional trading program in the Ohio River Basin will require participation by multiple stakeholders and trading partners. Trading partners will likely include power companies, POTWs, regulators and non-point sources. Other key stakeholders will include, but not limited to conservation and environmental organizations as well as constituent interest groups. Program design will require intensive stakeholder involvement over three to five years. The design of the trading framework will be shaped by several attributes that will constrain the overall program. These will include consistency with The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) trading policy and developing trading ratios or other factors to account for the position of the buyers and sellers over a large project area as well as for pollutant equivalency. Arrangements will need to be made between state regulatory agencies, the Ohio River Valley Water Sanitation Commission (ORSANCO) and EPA to address how interstate trading will occur. Development of trading zones (or districts) and rules governing where buyers may purchase credits are two possible methods that will need to be developed to account for geographic scale.

Potential drivers for trading in the Ohio River Basin include both localized and systemic water quality issues. On the local level, water quality issues in various reaches of the Ohio River and its major tributaries include local eutrophication (related to phosphorus), algal blooms (taste and odor problems), ammonia (local toxicity), bacteria (localized Combined Sewer Overflow discharges and background NPSs), temperature (aquatic life and ammonia), flow (urban storm water, hydraulics), and acid mine drainage.
---------------

Arturo Keller 3/1/07-3/1/12 $100,000
Friends of the Santa Clara River, SB070098(KAP15)

Water Quality Assessment of Wetland Restoration in HRNA.

This project will focus on four areas:

1. Develop PAEP, monitoring and QAPP plans
UCSB will lead the development of the Project Assessment Evaluation Plan (PAEP), the Monitoring Plan (MP) and the Quality Assurance Project Plan (QAPP) for the treatment systems, including decisions on instrumentation, method of collection of samples, analysis, frequency and location.

2. Project monitoring
UCSB will work with Friends of the Santa Clara River to train a group of volunteers to collect the samples according to the monitoring plan, and following the quality assurance plan. UCSB’s research team will also participate from time to time in the collection of samples and measurement of field parameters, as needed. All samples will be analyzed at UCSB using existing instrumentation in Dr. Keller’s laboratory. The results of the sampling will be provided to all project members on a regular basis.

3. Modeling of system
UCSB will develop a simple model of the effectiveness of wetland, based on the physical and biogeochemical characteristics of the systems as well as the driving functions (e.g. climate, vegetation type, pesticide type, etc.).

4. Reporting
UCSB will participate in the preparation quarterly and final project reports that Friends of the Santa Clara River will provide to the State Water Resources Control Board, providing scientific and technical advice, as well as the data generated from the monitoring program, and the results of the modeling effort.
---------------

Arturo Keller 1/1/11-12/31/14 $549,519
Nascent Water Technologies, Inc., SB110051(KAP24)

Developing Mag-PCMAs for Commercial Application.

The initial research to synthesize Mag-PCMAs and evaluate the feasibility of using them to adsorb hydrophobic organic compounds from the contaminated waters has been conducted, with very successful results. However, there is a need to conduct further research and development of the Mag-PCMAs for various commercial applications. In addition, there is a need to scale up the synthesis of Mag-PCMAs so that batches of a few pounds can be used for pilot-scale trials. Tasks to be completed on this project include: 1. Removal of pharmaceuticals from water supplies; 2. Removal of oil & grease from water supplies; 3. Removal of pesticides from water supplies; 4. Removal of PAHs and PCBs from water supplies; 5. Removal of water-borne viruses from water supplies; 6. Evaluation of the effect of environmental conditions on removal effectiveness; 7. Evaluation of the effect of high pollutant concentrations on removal effectiveness; 8. Scale up of synthesis of Mag-PCMAs for pilot scale studies; and 9. Pilot scale studies to identify a few sites where pilot scale studies can be conducted, (once these have been identified, a testing protocol will be developed for each site).
---------------

Arturo Keller           9/1/08-8/31/13                             $4,814,507
Patricia Holden           (HPF03)
Barbara Harthorn       (HB1F01, FBF01/02)
Hunter Lenihan           (LHF01/02; CBF01)
Ed McCauley           (MEF01)
Roger Nisbet           (NRF01)
Joshua Schimel
Galen Stucky           (SGF01)
National Science Foundation, SB090050(KAF01/02/03/04)

CEIN-Predictive Toxicological Assessment and Safe Implementation of Nanotechnology in the Environment.

The UC Center for Environmental Implications of Nanotechnology (UC CEIN) studies the effects of nanomaterials on a range of biological systems in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine environments. From this research, the UC CEIN will design a comprehensive risk-ranking model, based on the potential toxicity, mobility, and persistence of the nanomaterials. With the rapid development of nanotechnology, little is known about the possible environmental, health, and safety impacts of nanomaterials.

UC CEIN research is primarily conducted at UC Los Angeles and UC Santa Barbara, with several important partner institutions. Within the UC CEIN, UCSB takes the lead on fate and transport, ecotoxicological, and risk perception studies, collaborating primarily with researchers at UCLA, UC Davis, UC Riverside, University of Texas at El Paso, Columbia University, and University of British Columbia.
---------------

Arturo Keller 3/31/11-3/30/16 $103,713
Ohio Water Development Authority, SB110060(KAP25)

Water Quality Modeling of the Ohio State Component of the Ohio River Basin Water Quality Trading Program.

We will implement the WARMF model for the two sections of the Ohio River,
(USGS HUC 0503 and 0509) that run through Ohio, as well as the Great Miami River (HUC 0508) watershed (Figure 2). For hydrological connectivity, small sections of surrounding states will also be modeled. For those major tributaries that are not yet modeled (e.g. HUC 0502, Monongahela) and that drain into this section of the Ohio River, we will use the ORSANCO monitoring data as a placeholder for the flows and loads from these watersheds. This proposed project will benefit from our existing efforts funded by USEPA, since we have already established the connections with Ohio EPA and ORSANCO to obtain the needed point source and observed water quality information. Implementing the model involves obtaining a number of datasets such as topography (digital elevation model), hydrologic network and observed hydrology from USGS; land use data from the 2001 National Land Cover Dataset, supplemented with the 2008 Cropland Survey for Ohio from USDA; point source and water quality observations data from Ohio EPA; ORSANCO monitoring data. The TWG project has allowed us to develop a number of software tools and algorithms for processing these large datasets to more rapidly implement each new watershed. If we did not have these tools, the cost of implementing the model for these three HUCs (0503, 0508 and 0509) would be approximately twice the proposed budget, given the large area considered. The watersheds will be modeled at the 10-digit HUC level, as shown in Figure 2. For practical purposes, the models are implemented as distinct subwatersheds that can be run independently or together in a master project. Thus, if someone needs to run a scenario for a small section within a watershed, it is not necessary to run the entire master model. Data set collection and incorporation into the model will take approximately 3 months. Once the model is implemented and calibrated, the model will be used to develop the “trading coefficients” for the entire state of Ohio. This involves evaluating the effect of a load reduction in a given location, and its impact on the rest of the downstream watersheds. A matrix of the trading coefficients will be generated, for use in the broader WQT program. The matrix will also be displayed graphically using ArcView or any other accepted Geographical Information System software. A number (approx. 20) of trading
scenarios within Ohio will be evaluated, to illustrate the use of the model for WQT. The final report will detail the model implementation, calibration, analysis of the WQT scenarios, and an explanation of the trading coefficient matrix. A proposed water quality monitoring program in support of the WQT program for the state of Ohio will also be included in the final report.
---------------

Edward Keller 2/1/07-1/31/12 $25,000
University of Southern California, 120044(KEP02)

SCEC3 Participation: Active Tectonics of the Camarillo Fold Belt: Establishing the Chronology

The primary objective of this proposal is to determine the age of the Saugus Fm. and long-term (103-105 yr) rates and timing of deformation of the CFB. Determination of the deformational history of the last unstudied fold belt in southern California is essential to understanding the temporal and spatial patterns of deformation in the western Transverse Ranges, and to elucidating how this region accommodates plate boundary deformation. In order to successfully achieve this goal, we will need to determine the middle Pleistocene-Holocene chronology of deformed strata in the CFB. Terrestrial strata in the CFB are currently correlated with the Saugus Formation deformed at South Mountain and regions to the north and west. The upper age limit of Pleistocene strata in this part of the western Transverse Ranges is unknown. Because the age of these deposits is beyond the reliable range of most Quaternary chronometers, we propose to date these deposits using U-series dating of pedogenic carbonates, of which, are abundant within the Saugus Formation in the CFB and elsewhere.
---------------

Bruce Kendall 9/15/06-8/31/11 $201,944
National Science Foundation, 0615024(KBF01)

Collaborative Research: Demographic heterogeneity within populations and its consequences.

The simple models described above suggest that demographic heterogeneity is likely to be an important determinant of a population’s dynamics, impacting demographic stochasticity, low-density growth rate, equilibrium density, and rate of spatial spread. These are of fundamental ecological importance, and may have evolutionary consequences as well; they certainly will influence a population’s risk of extinction or invasion. However, these models are, by dint of their simplicity, limited in a variety of ways. They are for the most part non-spatial, and focus on asymptotic, rather than transient, dynamics. Where interactions between individuals is included (e.g., density-dependence), it is modeled as a mean-field effect, with no consideration of potential variability in local density. Interspecific interactions have not been examined. And finally, while many studies have empirically documented heterogeneity of various sorts, there has been no integrated assessment of the effects of heterogeneity on the dynamics of an actual population.
We propose to extend our understanding of the population impacts of demographic heterogeneity in a variety of ways.

Demographic heterogeneity and spatially local interactions: spatial heterogeneity in environmental conditions is an important driver of demographic heterogeneity, especially in sessile organisms such as plants. In these species competitive interactions, and often dispersal, are local, and mean field models may be inappropriate. We will use spatially explicit models to analyze the effects of demographic heterogeneity in such populations, adding spatial pattern to the endpoints we have already examined in nonspatial models.

Demographic heterogeneity and invasion dynamics: our previous work used idealized dispersal kernels and deterministic dynamics, but low densities in the leading edge of the invasion front mean that both demography and realized dispersal can be highly stochastic. We will use individual-based spatial models to evaluate how demographic heterogeneity affects the mean and variance of invasion speed. We will also use the model to investigate the conditions required to generate the pattern (observed, e.g., in the cane toad invasion) of increasingly strong dispersal ability in the leading edge of the invasion.

Demographic heterogeneity and interspecific interactions: we will introduce demographic heterogeneity into models of interacting species (both competitive and consumer-resource interactions) to evaluate how such heterogeneity impacts coexistence criteria and qualitative features of predator-prey cycles.

Demographic heterogeneity and the dynamics of a threatened bird species: in collaboration with scientists at the Archbold Biological Station, we will use recently developed statistical tools to quantify demographic heterogeneity in a well-studied population of Florida scrub-jays. We will then use our model framework to evaluate how this heterogeneity affects the population dynamics and long-term viability of the population.

Insights for metapopulation dynamics: exploiting the qualitative similarity between the density-dependent population model in Stover et al. (2011a) and classic metapopulation models, we will develop models that introduce heterogeneity in patch characteristics (extinction and colonization rates). We will investigate whether these models can provide insights into the dynamics of heterogeneous metapopulations that complement or generalize the results of spatially explicit metapopulation models.
---------------

Daniel Lavallee 7/15/08-6/30/11 $250,000
National Science Foundation, 0738954(LDN01)

Dynamics of Earthquake Rupture on Heterogeneous Faults

The study of the earthquake source has evolved from point sources to kinematic to dynamics as the basic physics of the process has become the focus of source studies. Spatial heterogeneities in the initial stress across the fault surface are critical factors in constraining the dynamics of earthquake rupture and the resulting seismic radiation. Furthermore, recent studies have shown that the properties of spatial heterogeneities found in finite-fault source inversions can be captured and modeled with the help of random models. We propose to use this random model to generate statistically credible initial stress spatial distributions that can be used as input to 3D dynamic models for computing scenarios of earthquake ruptures and their radiated field. We use slip distributions from kinematic inversions of data as starting models for the initial stress distribution. Whereas the kinematic inversions have resolution of 1 km or greater, the dynamic modeling depends critically on scale lengths of ~100 m. The proposed method ensures that the statistical properties of the initial stress at ~100 m will correspond to the same statistics at ~1 km and vice versa. The scenarios will be used to study the qualitative and quantitative features, e.g., local rupture velocity, of the rupture dynamics as a function of the random properties of the initial stress. We will also examine the dependence between the random properties of the radiated fields and the random properties of the initial stress. These numerical experiments will be repeated for different friction laws (slip weakening, rate-and-state dependent law, and the free volume friction law) to assess any dependence between the formulation of the friction law and the expansion of the rupture.
---------------

Daniel Lavallee 2/1/09-1/31/12 $15,000
University of Southern California, 120044(LDP05)

SCEC3 Participation: Stairway to Meso-Scale (~100 M) Stress Heterogeneity: Applications to numerical Computations of Earthquake Rupture Processes

In this reserach we proposed first to compute the random properties of measurements of slip for the 1999 Izmit and Durze earthquakes and second to develop random model for the computed slip inversions of the 1999 Izmit earthquake.

---------------

Ira Leifer 3/1/10-2/29/12 $101,735
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, UAF 10-0081(LIG01)

Long-term monitoring of submerged, permafrost methane emissions

The Arctic is warming dramatically, threatening catastrophic climate change through rapid mobilization of vulnerable carbon reservoirs sequestered by permafrost, yet we currently lack the sustained observations and realistic biogeochemical models required to understand the feedback to the global climate. The majority of submerged arctic permafrost (>80%) lies in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS), where studies in recent years indicate strong and widespread seep bubble ebullition from the vast, permafrost deposits underlying this shallow Arctic seas, estimated to sequester 1400 x 109 tons carbon primarily in the form of methane. However, budgets are currently poorly quantified, particularly, the direct bubble flux; which for such shallow water can be the dominant emission mechanism.

Seepage varies significantly on a range of time scales with transient emissions potentially important, thus a long-term monitoring capability is critical, but currently unavailable. Hence we propose a pilot study to develop and Arctic deploy a mooring to measure critical oceanographic, bubble, and bubble plume parameters related to seabed dissolved and ebullition emissions. In this study, we will integrate instrumentation (custom-developed and off-the shelf previously Arctic-deployed) into an adaptive (smart) long-term, Arctic-capable, mooring package.

Instrumentation will measure: bubble fluxes with active (multibeam scanning sonar) and passive acoustics, temperature and current profiles, O2 and dissolved CO2, turbidity and ocean light, and wave height. All system components, except passive acoustics and the thermistor chain (temperature profile) were deployed in the Arctic in Fall 2009 and previous cruises. The key acoustic approaches are innovative technological outgrowths of prior NURP-funded research. UCSB pioneered using single-beam sonar to characterize bubble fluxes, supported under a previous NURP study and now is adapting state-of-the-art multibeam sonar to quantify bubble flux. Multibeam sonar is critical to reliable flux calibration.

Prior to Arctic deployment, the mooring will be lab tested and calibrated in the UCSB Ocean Engineering wind-wave channel (3m deep x 5m x 42m) and field-tested in the highly accessible (low-cost), Coal Oil Pt (COP) seep field. COP deployment will ensure component integration, power system and lander structural reliability, and collect data to ensure appropriate instrumentation settings (gain, range, ping rate, etc.) and test analysis routines.
Arctic deployment will be during a Laptev Sea research cruise (late summer 2010) and a NSF-funded, winter-ice drilling study (winter 2011). Year 1 mooring deployments will be for periods of several days with the support vessel largely surveying elsewhere, and periodically returning to upload data (and recalibrate) when survey track lines bring the vessel proximate. Prior to deployment, multibeam sonar and geochemical surveys will characterize site areas. Year 2 deployments will be about 4 weeks, depending on cruise and/or drilling schedule, requiring far greater mooring robustness and builds on year 1 results.
---------------

Hunter Lenihan 2/1/11-12/31/11 $31,525
AECOM, SB110068(LHP04)

Determining Risk Factors for 3 Zero Valent Iron Materials.

Scope of work for UCSB to conduct a bench-scale risk assessment study for three types of zero valent iron (ZVI): (1) catalyzed Z-Loy product from On Materials, Inc.; (2) G-nZVI; and (3) micro ZVI, that may be used for in situ remediation of chlorinated volatile organic compounds in groundwater at the former Lockheed Martin Adhesive Bond Plant site in North Charleston, South Carolina (the Site). We will also evaluate the use of Adventus EHC-L, a ferrous iron composite that has also been shown to remediate chlorinated volatile organic compounds in groundwater.

The proposed study will use groundwater and geologic materials from the Site to evaluate the mobility, persistence and toxicity to various aquatic organisms of the three types of ZVI provided by AECOM.

The objectives of the proposed bench-scale study include:
1)   To determine the size of the three types of ZVI as received, and in groundwater from the site;
2)   To determine the mobility of the three types of ZVI and their by-products in groundwater and geologic materials from the site, and to consider the mobility of Adventus EHC-L and its by-products;
3)   To determine the persistence of the three types of ZVI and Adventus EHC-L in groundwater and geologic materials from the site; and
4)   To determine the potential toxicity of the three types of ZVI and Adventus EHC-L to a freshwater organism (Daphnia).
---------------

Hunter Lenihan 7/1/10-6/30/11 $33,288
UC Sea Grant College Program(LHP02)

MPA-Based Collaborative Techniques to Improve Management of Nearshore Fisheries.

Spatially structured, data poor stocks are among the most valuable fisheries in California. Effective management of these stocks is suboptimal due to the lack of stock status indicators and unknown quantitative reference points. Stock assessments are the basic framework for computing stock status indicators, yet many nearshore species lack the necessary data to perform traditional stock assessments. Moreover, many stocks in the nearshore environment are governed by metapopulation dynamics (Gunderson et al. 2006) in which discrete populations are connected via larval dispersal (Kritzer and Sale 2004). For these species, traditional coast-wide assessments are insufficient to account for differences in mortality rates, growth rates, reproductive patterns, and harvest pressure between sub populations (Francis et al. 2008), thus reducing the potential to set harvest levels at predetermined target levels. The spiny lobster (Panulirus interruptus) is an economically, culturally, and ecologically important species in California. During the 2007-’08 fishing season, for example, 167 active commercial permits landed 306t (metric) with an ex-vessel value of ~$7.22 million. A vigorous recreational fishery is also formed around this species, and initial analyses of recreational report cards issued by the California Department of Fish and Game (CDFG) suggest that this sector contributes significantly to the total catch. In December of 2009, the authors participated in a workshop convened by CDFG that outlined needs and objectives for completion of a stock assessment by December 2010. Stock assessment biologists and independent consultants (Marine Stewardship Council) have determined that estimates of fishing mortality, natural mortality and growth rates are critical to performing a robust assessment of the spiny lobster resource. California’s nearshore finfish fishery targets multiple species using hook-and-line and trap gear. Although the total statewide volume of commercial landings in the nearshore groundfish fishery has been modest in recent years (224 tons landed commercially in California waters in 2006), many of theA(and net revenues of $2.2 million in 2006). Grass rockfish (Sebastes rastrelliger) is one of the predominantly landed stocks of the 19 species managed under the Nearshore Fisheries Management Plan (Nearshore FMP 2002). Sufficient data to evaluate stock status of grass rockfish and a majority of the other species in the Nearshore FMP are unavailable and therefore the complex is managed using the precautionary approach (Restrepo et al. 1998). The Reauthorization of the Magnuson Act now requires the setting of Annual Catch Limits (ACLs) for all US fisheries. To effectively set ACLs, novel methods must be developed and utilized for these data poor species. The implementation of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) along the California coast (MLPA) offers tremendous potential for managers to use these zones to guide decision making at local scales. No-take MPAs may serve as proxies for unfished populations at specific locations. By comparing MPAs to adjacent fished areas that experience similar environmental conditions, it may be possible to calculate natural mortality, and fishing mortality rates, as well as design methods that set sustainable harvest levels at local scales. We have developed two novel methods for utilizing data from MPAs to inform fisheries management decisions for the nearshore and spiny lobster fisheries: (1) A decision tree model (Wilson et al. 2010) that can be used to set ACLs, and (2) a length structured model that uses growth models and size structure data from inside and outside reserves to calculate rates of natural and fishery-imposed mortality. For spiny lobster, the growth and mortality models developed in this proposal and the resulting outputs will be directly utilized in the upcoming stock assessment being performed by CDFG.
---------------

Hunter Lenihan 7/1/10-6/30/11 $1,512
UC Sea Grant College Program, 20101258(LHP03)

MPA-Based Collaborative Techniques to Improve Management of Nearshore Fisheries.

Bruce Luyendyk 11/1/09-10/31/11 $155,455
University of Nebraska(LBP01)

ANDRILL: Investigating Antartica's Role in Cenozoic Global Environmental Change-Coulman High Project

ANDRILL (ANtarctic geological DRILLing) is an international, multidisciplinary program designed to investigate Antarctica's role in Cenozoic global environmental change. After two successful drilling projects, ANDRILL proposes to drill two sites on Coulman High (CH), moving eastward and outside the well-understood Victoria Land Basin (VLB) to target a Cretaceous(?) to middle Miocene section to address fundamental questions of global climate evolution and regional tectonics. This will enable us to determine both fundamental shifts as well as transient excursions in the Antarctic cryosphere that impacted global ocean and climate reorganization. We will use the excellent chronostratigraphic framework for the western Ross Sea (RS) region to provide needed stratigraphic constraint on an extensive network of seismic data across the rest of the RS. CH drilling will provide a high-resolution record of climate and glacial history from a site outside the VLB, which can be applied directly to the interpretation of the seismic records. Four scientific themes will be addressed by an integrated approach involving site surveys, core recovery and analysis, regional interpretation, and numerical modeling: (1) history of Antarctic climate and ice sheets; (2) Antarctica’s role in Earth’s ocean-ice-climate system; (3) evolution of polar biota; and (4) Antarctic tectonics. This proposal requests funding for the participation of U.S. scientists in the international CH Project, which will acquire and study high-quality continuous sediment cores from two (>1200 m-deep) drill holes. Additional funding is requested for over-ice seismic reflection data acquisition and processing, subcontracts for radar and environmental surveys, project management and institutional support for ANDRILL’s research community’s involvement in these projects, and, continuation of a diverse and highly visible education and outreach program. CH Project results will provide insights on: (1) Development of the Antarctic cryosphere; (2) Magnitude and frequency of cryosphere changes on millennial timescales; (3) Influence of Antarctic ice sheets on Eocene to Miocene climate; (4) Influence of Paleogene Antarctic ice sheets on thermohaline circulation and eustasy; and (5) Timing of Antarctic tectonic episodes leading to an understanding of the role of Antarctic plate motion in the global plate circuit, and the development of sedimentary basins.
---------------

Sally MacIntyre 9/15/07-8/31/11 $262,415
National Science Foundation, ARC-0714085(MSF05)

Arctic lakes are seives: Will global warming close the pores?

The hydrodynamics of lakes have major impacts on lacustrine productivity and the rate at which toxins enter aquatic foodwebs. Over the last eight years we have collected a unique time series of temperature and meteorological data from arctic lakes of different sizes in which ecosystem processes are currently being studied by the Arctic LTER. This data set, when analyzed in conjunction LTER data and data on distributions of elemental mercury and methyl mercury collected by William Fitzerald and his colleagues via NSF OPP 0425562, provides an unprecedented opportunity to quantify how the thermal structure of arctic lakes changes with meteorological forcing and thereby understand the coupled physical-chemical-biological processes which govern production in these ultra-oligotrophic systems and the fate of atmospherically derived pollutants.

Remarkable differences in thermal structure and mixing dynamics occur in warm versus cold summers in the Arctic. During warm years, nutrients added to the upper water column are sequestered within it. In contrast, during cold summers, the flux of nutrients between the upper and lower regions of small lakes occurs on time scales of days. These differences in time scales will determine whether nutrients originating from the landscape and atmospheric deposition will support benthic or pelagic production. As the energy to support higher trophic levels in arctic lakes is primarily supported by benthic food webs, shifts in thermal structure which support pelagic productivity will have major ecological consequences for energy flow in the Arctic.

The mixing dynamics in arctic lakes are unique in comparison to temperate lakes of similar size. During windy periods, coefficients of eddy diffusivity become high in the metalimnion (10-6 m2 s-1) and hypolimnion (10-5m2s-1). These high values occur because wind forcing results in nonlinear waves whose breaking induces turbulence. In contrast, wind forcing produces linear waves in similarly sized temperate lakes and transfers between hypolimnetic and epilimnetic waters occur at molecular rates. This difference arises because of the stronger temperature gradient between the upper and lower layers of temperate lakes compared to arctic lakes. Understanding how the climate in the Arctic leads to within season and year to year variations in thermal structure and mixing dynamics is crucial for predicting how these lakes will change over time. Changes will affect not only primary production but also the percentage of lakes which remain anoxic after ice off, again with implications for benthic food webs, and budgets of mercury.
---------------

Sally MacIntyre 9/1/09-8/31/12 $399,567
National Science Foundation, DEB-0919603(MSF06)

Collaborative Research: Arctic to the Amazon: Physical Processes Controlling Gas Exchange from Freshwater Ecosystems.

Despite the small overall surface area of lakes, reservoirs, streams and rivers, estimates of carbon dioxide and methane emissions indicate aquatic ecosystems play an important role in regional carbon balances (Richey et al., 2002; Melack et al. 2004). Further, lakes are anticipated to be sentinels of climate change, with the balance between autotrophic growth and respiration in lakes anticipated to change with increased anthropogenic activity in their watersheds and with climate change. Studies have been and are being conducted worldwide to assess the role of lakes and reservoirs in regional and global carbon cycles and efforts are underway to estimate metabolic activity in lakes. Essential to both efforts are accurate estimates of gas fluxes at the air-water interface.

The gas transfer coefficient, used in the calculation of fluxes, depends upon turbulence at the air-water interface, but in most biogeochemical studies either a fixed conservative value is used or one based on wind speed alone. Other processes which cause turbulence are neglected. We estimate that regional carbon budgets are in error by at least a factor of two and likely higher in warm water lakes due to incorrect parameterization of the gas transfer coefficient. The error is unknown in cold water lakes. The surface renewal model takes into account the various processes which induce turbulence in near-surface waters yet has never been validated for lakes. We propose to combine direct air-water flux measurements of carbon dioxide using eddy covariance techniques with in situ measurements of the water-side CO2 concentration profile, turbulence and energy fluxes to evaluate and improve upon the surface renewal model of the gas transfer coefficient. We further propose studies using SF6 in lakes too small for EC studies with measurements taken on time scales of events which drive gas flux. We propose studies in an arctic, temperate zone, and tropical lake to capture the latitudinal variations in physical forcing which affect turbulence near the air-water interface. Our overarching goal is a formulation of the gas transfer coefficient which can be readily applied in ecosystem studies of lakes at any latitude.
---------------

Sally MacIntyre 09/01/09-08/31/12 $7,494
National Science Foundation-DEB-091960(MSF07)

Collaborative Research: Arctic to the Amazon: Physcical Processes Controlling Gas Exchange from Freshwater Ecosystems

Efforts to obtain gas transfer coefficients in small lakes have been based on tracer approaches or full lake carbon budgets (Cole and Caraco 1998; Cole et al. 2010), which provide average values over several days. Estimates using eddy covariance techniques, which provide 30 minute averages, are difficult because the footprint over which measurements are made can extend over land. In our proposed work (DEB-0919603), we suggested using sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) and sampling in response to changing meteorology. However, both Vachon et al. (2010) and Cole et al. (2010) use chamber methods, which they indicate can be or are corrected for the chamber induced accentuation of turbulence at the air-water interface. Using these chambers, and sampling over short intervals over diel cycles, opens the door for diel assessments of k600 using inversion techniques as in MacIntyre et al. (in press). Our approach for developing valid equations for k600 in small lakes over diel cycles will be to combine these short interval flux measurements with diel measurements of temperature, meteorology, surface currents, and pCO2.
Given the predicted importance of global warming in the Arctic for mobilizing carbon stores, and previous evidence that freshwaters contribute significantly to terrestrial carbon budgets in the Arctic (Kling et al. 1992), our measurements in summer 2011 will be performed in two small arctic lakes near the Toolik Field Station. Lake N2, has a surface area of 1.6 ha, is 10 m deep, and seasonally stratifies, and Lake E6 is polymictic, 1.9 ha in surface area, and maximally 3 m deep. We will obtain time series temperature and meteorological measurements, measurements of currents with acoustic Doppler profilers and acoustic Doppler velocimeters, measurements of exchange of SF6 introduced near bottom or in the metalimnion and the epilimnion as a proxy for green house gases, measurements of pCO2 concentrations in surface waters and air using a LiCor 820 and equilibrator, and measurements of gas concentrations in chambers. We will obtain profiles to compute turbulence using the self-contained autonomous micro- profiler (SCAMP). We have experience with all but the chamber measurements and willdevelop that expertise before leaving for the field. The research team includes the PI, the co-PI Jordan Clark who is an expert with SF6, and two postdoctoral fellows with experience in physical limnology and physical-biological coupling. Within the overarching goal of quantifying the physical limnology of small lakes and developing equations for the gas transfer coefficient for these lakes, intermediate goals include determining the extent of damping of turbulence during windy periods with heating; quantifying turbulence during periods of cooling; quantifying current speeds, the shear induced, and the persistence of these currents; and validating predicted shear stresses and heat loss from sheltered lakes.
---------------
Stéphane Maritorena 2/1/08-1/31/12 $397,652
David Siegel
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NNX08AF99A(MS1N04)

Algorithm refinement for ocean color ESDR's.

We propose to maintain and refine the current MODIS-Aqua chlorophyll (OC3M) and K490 algorithms and to develop spectral inherent optical property (IOP) products. Chlorophyll (Chl) alone is not sufficient to monitor how the global ocean ecosystem is changing or how it responds to or affects global environmental change and the carbon cycle (NASA's Earth Science Research questions #3 and 11). To address these questions, other ocean color products are necessary. Specifically, we will develop and test a model that will accurately predict spectral values of the absorption coefficient of the combined dissolved and detrital material, acdm(), spectral values of the phytoplankton absorption coefficient, aph() and spectral values of the particulate backscattering coefficient, bbp(). The Chl, K490 and IOP products now have all the necessary characteristics to qualify as Earth System Data Records (ESDR). These IOP products will be generated using an updated version of our in-house semi-analytical ocean color model, GSM, with improved parameterizations. In addition, we will test methods to generate new products such as the spectral slope of backscattering, the spectral slope of dissolved and detrital absorption, the diffuse attenuation coefficient for ultraviolet (UV) radiation which will better describe the state and function of the ocean ecosystems than observations of Chl alone. We will also test recently published techniques to identify phytoplankton functional groups from ocean color satellite data. The results from the GSM model will also be compared to those of other models. Statistical and errors analyses using the in situ measurements, matchup data and global imagery will be used to assess and validate all products.
---------------

Stéphane Maritorena           5/12/08-5/11/13                   $2,256,223
David Siegel
James Frew
Norm Nelson
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NNX08AP36A(MS1N05)

Beyond Chlorophyll: Implementation and Distribution of Innovative Ocean Color Earth Science Data Records.

Satellite ocean color imagery is all too frequently relegated to a single product, the chlorophyll concentration. Along with required determination of the spectral normalized water-leaving radiance, the chlorophyll concentration is the oldest ocean color variable derived from satellite ocean color data because of the relative ease of its derivation and validation as well as it provides a link to net primary production (NPP) rates. Thanks to advances in both the theory of ocean color and measurements of core variables over the last couple decades many innovative science products can now be derived from satellite measurements. These new algorithms include the satellite determination of inherent optical properties (e.g., Maritorena et al. 2002; Lee et al., 2002; Siegel et al. 2002; 2005a; 2005b; IOCCG, 2006; Hoge and Lyon, 2005; Hu et al. 2006; Loisel et al. 2001; 2006; Lee and Hu, 2006), discrimination of phytoplankton functional groups (Alvain et al., 2005, 2006, Brown and Yoder, 1994; Westberry et al. 2005; Westberry and Siegel, 2006), near-direct assessments of phytoplankton physiology (e.g., Behrenfeld et al. 2005; 2006; Westberry et al. 2007) and the algorithm based merging of satellite data streams (Maritorena and Siegel, 2005). It is the creation, distribution and management of these emerging and innovative Ocean Color Earth Science Data Records (OC-ESDR’s) which is the focus of this MEaSUREs proposal.
---------------

Stéphane Maritorena 2/8/11-2/7/12 $130,404
David Siegel
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NNX11AE87G(MS1N06)

From UV to Fluorescence, a Semi-analytical Ocean Color Model for MODIS and Beyond.

We propose to develop the GSM model which is a well documented and vastly used multispectral semi-analytical ocean color model that we have developed at ICESS/UCSB. We propose to modify the GSM model so it can account for fluorescence which should help better constraint the model and improve Chlorophyll and phytoplankton absorption retrievals in both oceanic and coastal waters. Although MODIS does not have UV bands, we also propose to extend the GSM model into the UV region to help discriminate better between phytoplankton and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) absorption which are not well separated by the current 412 nm band in ocean color sensors. In upgrading GSM, we also plan on making it fully hyperspectral so it can be adapted and applied to MODIS and other sensors. Model development and later tests and validations of the different components of the model will performed using existing in situ data from our field campaigns and other existing public data sets. The model will be adapted to the MODIS bands and applied to the satellite data. In parallel, we will conduct a complete error and uncertainty analysis of the model and data as we have done in the past.
In summary, our objectives are to:
- Develop and add a fluorescence module for the GSM model
- Investigate and add a UV component to the GSM model
- Make the GSM model hyperspectral and adaptable to multispectral sensors like MODIS
- Develop a complete end-to-end error budget (inputs, model, outputs)
- Apply the model and error budget to the MODIS data
---------------

Stéphane Maritorena 4/19/11-4/18/12 $48,615
David Siegel
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NNX11AH74G(MS1N07)

Bio-optical algorithm studies for ACE: Benefits of UV bands to discriminate between CDM and phytoplankton light absorption in oceanic waters and other sensitivity analyses.
Statement of work

We propose to conduct two complementary studies relevant to bio-optical algorithms and the wavebands set selected for the ACE ocean ecology program. The first and main study would look into the potential benefits of the UV bands to better discriminate between CDOM and phytoplankton light absorption. Currently, ocean color products are derived from bio-optical algorithms and models that use reflectance data from wavebands in the visible. Sub-surface chlorophyll- concentration (CHL) and the combined absorption of colored dissolved organic matter and detritic matter (CDM) are two typical products derived from ocean color data but it is often difficult to separate and accurately quantify them as both are strong absorbers at short visible wavelengths (typically 412 and 443 nm in ocean color sensors). The UV domain may offer the possibility to better discriminate between CHL and CDM as differences in their light absorption characteristics may be more pronounced in the UV. While CDM absorption in the UV is relatively well documented, there are much more uncertainties and variability in phytoplankton UV absorption. We thus propose to analyze in situ CDM and CHL absorption measurements that include UV bands from the largest and most diverse possible data set we will assemble from our own field campaigns (e.g. CLIVAR, BBOP, Plumes & Blooms), the NOMAD data set and the SeaBASS archive. We will then determine the optimal parameterization for the CHL and CDM absorption terms in the UV in our semi- analytical ocean color model (GSM) and conduct tests to assess the benefits and usefulness of these bands to accurately retrieve the CDM and CHL components during the inversion of spectral reflectance data similar to what the ACE ocean radiometer will provide.
The second part of the proposed study will complement the sensitivity analyses already performed to determine the required signal-to-noise ratio in the visible bands of the ACE ocean radiometer. These additional analyses will compare the performance of the GSM model inversion with the wavebands set envisioned for the ACE ocean radiometer relative to a fully hyperspectral sensor and a SeaWiFS or MODIS-like sensor with a more limited set of bands. These tests will be conducted using modeled synthetic data sets which will be adapted to each sensor case.

In addition, the sensitivity analyses on the influence of noise in the radiometric data will be performed on a SeaWiFS-like CHL algorithm to assess the benefits and difficulties associated with the use of a semi-analytical model.
---------------

Jim Mattinson 1/1/07-12/31/11 $240,919
National Science Foundation, 0549674(MJ2N03)

Development of the CA-TIMS method: Refining U-Pb Zircon Geochronology

The precise and especially accurate measurement of geologic time continues to be one of most demanding requirements for deciphering a wide range of petrologic, tectonic, and paleobiologic problems. The U-Pb system in zircon is widely regarded as the “gold standard” of geochronology, but despite ca. a half-century of research into the behavior of this system, challenges in terms of open system behavior, decay constant uncertainties, and intermediate daughter isotope disequilibrium, etc., still remain. New techniques promise to move zircon geochronology to the next level, both in terms of understanding the behavior of U and Pb in zircon, and also in terms of zircon geochronology methods themselves.

This research will continue development of the “CA-TIMS” method of zircon U-Pb geochronology, a new method for highresolution geochronology (Mattinson, 2005), and to attack five inter-related problems: 1) developing a thorough understanding of the physics and chemistry of the CA-TIMS method at the micron scale; 2) understanding low-temperature fluid and radiation-damage mediated Pb loss in zircon, and its implications for both zircon geochronology and sequestration of radioactive waste in synthetic zircon or zircon-like materials; 3) investigation of the extent to which alpha-recoil processes produce small-scale local normal and reverse discordance in zoned zircons, and the limitations this might impose on high-accuracy geochronology; 4) evaluating the significance of 231Pa disequilibrium in producing 207Pb/206Pb age anomalies in igneous zircons; and 5) refining the decay constant of 235U, relative to 238U. A major breakthrough that sets the CA-TIMS method apart is the understanding that high-temperature annealing of natural radiation damage in zircons eliminates elemental and isotopic “leaching” effects that have severely limited the usefulness of partial dissolution techniques in the past. This understanding makes it possible to design experiments that completely strip off zircon zones that have lost Pb, then to analyze residual zircon that has behaved as a perfect closed system. Thus, the age-old problem of dealing with Pb loss appears to be resolved for most zircons. We now must turn to developing a better understanding of exactly how the CATIMS “works” (1, above), plus other problems (2-5, above) that limit: a) determination of concordance in zircons; b) the accuracy and precision of concordia intercept ages; c) understanding of the mechanisms by which zircons lose Pb; and d) determination of the suitability of synthetic zircon-like materials for sequestration of radioactive waste.
---------------

Joseph McFadden 9/1/09-2/28/13 $499,945
Jennifer King
National Science Foundation, BCS-0908549(MJ1F01)

Collaborative Research: Coupling Human Choice and Biogeochemical Cycling in Urban Ecosystems.

This project will investigate the coupling between household biogeochemical fluxes and socioeconomic factors along an urban to exurban gradient in Minneapolis–Saint Paul, Minnesota. The proposed research aims to (1) use an existing household survey and vegetation measurement database to examine how socioeconomic and biophysical factors influence household decisions and, thus, the fluxes of C, N, and P through households along a gradient of housing density; (2) determine the effect of consumption and pollution production by single family homes on fluxes of C, N, and P at the scale of the urban-exurban study region; and (3) examine how behavioral influences can be altered through social networks to change consumption choices and, therefore, elemental fluxes. Thus, the study will establish a feedback loop between household choices, elemental fluxes, and back to household choices. At U.C. Santa Barbara, PI McFadden will be responsible for the development and implementation of satellite data-driven models to scale vegetation carbon fluxes from a set of 400 field-measured households to the urban study region. PI King will be responsible for the analyses of relationships between household-level choices and biogeochemical fluxes of C, N, and P. All PIs on the project will contribute to advising the post-docs and graduate students on the research team, synthesizing the findings from the different components of the project, and publication of the results. Elucidating the nature of such socio-environmental coupling should stimulate novel approaches to making cities more sustainable, reducing urban pollution, and reducing urban contributions to climate change.
---------------

John Melack       1/1/10-12/31/12                           $249,825
Laura Hess
Sally MacIntyre
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NNX10AB66G(MJN12)

Analysis and Synthesis of Carbon Dynamics on Amazon Floodplains.

Our research on the ecology, hydrology and biogeochemistry of Amazon wetlands under the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA-ECO) addressed important aspects of the regional carbon dynamics of the Amazon basin, combining remote sensing and field measurements to calculate evasion of methane and carbon dioxide from rivers and wetlands. Our proposed work synthesizes newly available remote sensing datasets and analyses, recently completed field measurements, and recent modeling advances with past results in order to target important remaining uncertainties regarding carbon dioxide and methane dynamics on Amazonian floodplains. This work will contribute to understanding of tropical riverine and wetland systems in the global context of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon dynamics. Furthermore, recent studies have indicated that lakes and wetlands make a significant contribution to the global carbon budget because of the high rates of carbon uptake and metabolism in these systems. Therefore, our research in the large and productive Amazon basin is likely to be quantitatively important globally.

About 20% of the Amazon basin is seasonally inundated, and these wetlands are sites of intense biological activity that can have a strong influence on the regional carbon dynamics. Understanding the effects of these dynamics on air-water exchanges of CO2 and CH4 is of critical importance if we are to estimate the net contribution of Amazon wetlands to greenhouse gas emissions. To quantify this influence it is necessary to improve estimates of the fluxes and balance of carbon, incorporating the principal sources of spatial and temporal variability and developing numerical models to simulate and integrate their effects. Hence, we propose to study the organic carbon dynamics and its influence on the net emissions of CO2 and CH4 on central Amazon floodplains.
   We propose to examine three unresolved issues:
1.   The role of aquatic herbaceous macrophytes and litterfall from flooded forests as sources of organic carbon fueling the outgassing of carbon dioxide and methane from wetlands and rivers.
2.   The regional, seasonal and interannual variations in evasion of methane and carbon dioxide.
3.   The inundation dynamics of floodplains on multiple scales, and their function as a physical template for biogeochemical processes.
      To resolve these issues and to advance predictive capability and understanding of how the carbon balance of Amazon floodplains will respond to environmental changes requires several coordinated activities. Hydrological and hydrodynamic models will be integrated with biogeochemical analyses and models and with remotely sensed-based estimates of plant growth and phenology.
---------------

John Melack 3/15/07-2/28/12 $327,362
National Science Foundation, DEB-0614207(MJF02)

Responses of high elevation, aquatic ecosystems to interannual climate variability and trends in nutrient inputs (LTREB Program).

Aquatic ecosystems integrate environmental conditions and can provide indications of how montane regions are responding to warming climate, changing snow regime and altered atmospheric composition. Twenty-three years of research at the Emerald Lake watershed (Sequoia National Park) has shown that runoff patterns and the timing of snowmelt alter nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) biogeochemistry with concomitant changes in lake trophic conditions. Recent evidence indicates that Sierran lakes are undergoing eutrophication while shifting from P to N limitation; altered rates of atmospheric deposition of N and P and changes in P biogeochemistry of soils and lake sediments are likely causes. Observing and understanding the causes and consequences of these multi-year trends and variations in ecological conditions, requires appropriately designed long-term measurements) complemented by experiments and modeling. The project investigators propose to continue long-term study of the Emerald Lake watershed and nearby catchments in order to test conceptual hypotheses regarding drivers of environmental change in high-elevation aquatic ecosystems. The primary foci of the proposed study are: i) continued assessment of the response of lake phytoplankton to changing inputs of N and P and ii) continued study of the coupling between climate variability and N and P biogeochemistry. To further examine the effects of ongoing eutrophication, the proposed study also seeks to answer the following questions:
a) At what rate is phosphorus being atmospherically deposited in the Sierra Nevada from anthropogenic and natural sources like fire?
b) How do modern input rates of P to Emerald Lake and similar sites differ from those over the last two hundred years?
c) How is P in the soils mobilized and transformed and how are these processes modified by variation in climate and hydrology?
d) How much P is released from lacustrine sediments and how do the rates of release change as a function of variations in stratification, pH, dissolved oxygen and dissolved metals?
These questions will be answered through the continuation of ongoing watershed measurements; additional study of P pools, transformation and fluxes in soils and sediments; enhanced measurements of atmospheric deposition; and paleolimnological study of lake sediments. Climate conditions have a strong influence on potential P source areas, on the incidence of fires, on transport and deposition, and on ecological impacts. Hence, as a consequence of the considerable interannual variability in California’s Mediterranean climate, it is essential to conduct these studies for at least five to ten years.
---------------

John Melack 3/15/07-2/28/11 $7,000
National Science Foundation, DEB-0614207(MJF04)

Responses of High Elevation, Aquatic Ecosystems to Interannual Climate Variability and Trends in Nutrient Inputs (LTREB Program - REU Supplement).

The guiding objectives of our LTREB research program are to identify and understand drivers of long-term change in aquatic ecosystems of the Sierra Nevada (California). Aquatic ecosystems integrate environmental conditions and can provide indications of how montane regions are responding to warming climate, changing snow regime and altered atmospheric deposition. Recent evidence indicates that aquatic ecosystems of the Sierra Nevada, while remote from development, are undergoing eutrophication from increased loading of nutrients. Consequently, our focus has been to asses the responses of productivity to changing inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus and to evaluate the coupling between climate variability and N and P biogeochemistry. We use a multi-faceted approach to achieve our goals. We combine long term high resolution measurements of Emerald Lake and neighboring lakes with periodic regional sampling throughout the Sierra Nevada. We have used this approach successfully with regard to acidic deposition, nitrogen balance, nutrient limitation and bacterial community composition (Melack and Stoddard 1991, Sickman et al. 2001, Sickman et al. 2002, Sickman et al. 2003, Nelson et al. in press). As part of combined LTREB research and the dissertation studies of Steve Sadro, we have been measuring lake metabolism in Emerald Lake. Specifically, we have been evaluating spatial and temporal variability in lake metabolism and how overall metabolic balance is affected by different environmental drivers. This research integrates our understanding of nutrient loading and catchment processes as they interact with physical conditions in the lake to affect nutrient cycling and overall productivity. For the ice-free season of 2009, we propose to continue measurements at Emerald Lake to characterize physical and biogeochemical seasonal patterns. Water samples will regularly be collected from multiple depths to characterize nutrient and dissolved organic matter dynamics. In addition, we will deploy thermistor chains to characterize mixing dynamics. Similarly, optical oxygen sensors will be deployed and combined with periodic diel oxygen profiles to characterize lake metabolism and calculate productivity. We will also periodically use benthic incubation chambers to isolate benthic metabolic rates and to quantify rates of phosphorus exchange with the sediments. From mid-August to mid-September, during the period when Sierran lakes are most stratified, we will conduct a regional survey of lakes. We know from previous surveys that nutrient and dissolved organic matter concentrations, two important drivers of metabolic rates, vary in relation to lake position within a catchment. Lakes located high in a catchment, where there are few or no upstream lakes and where there is little vegetation, tend to have higher concentrations of inorganic nutrients and lower concentrations of dissolved organic matter than lakes lower in a catchment. While lake position in the landscape may influence some environmental drivers of metabolism, it remains unclear if natural gradients of these drivers will result in differences in metabolic balance between lakes. Our multi-lake survey will enable us to explore these relationships and place the temporal patterns found at Emerald Lake in a regional context.
---------------

Norm Nelson       5/29/09-5/28/13                               $573,811
Craig Carlson
David Siegel
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NNX09AL09G(NNN06)

Ocean Color Observations on CLIVAR: Inherent Optical Properties and Community Structure on Trans-Ocean Sections.

Community structure, the taxonomic and functional composition of pelagic plankton communities, has an important bearing on global rates of net primary production, the export of carbon from the euphotic zone and the biogeochemical cycling of carbon and associated nutrients. Present-day numerical models used to simulate global ocean biogeochemical cycles parameterize both the function and the size of components of the plankton community. However, there is still precious little observational data to validate the results of these model simulations of plankton community structure and their biogeochemical impacts. In recent years, new capabilities have been developed to assess phytoplankton community structure and organic carbon cycling from satellite ocean color observations. However, validation of these novel remote sensing retrieval approaches and their further development is limited by scarcity of field observations over the variety of biogeochemical provinces of the global ocean.

Since 2003, we have been studying the distribution and dynamics and implications of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in the global ocean "piggybacking" on hydrographic sections of the CO2/CLIVAR Repeat Hydrography Project. With NASA support, we have collected and analyzed radiometric profiles, particle and CDOM absorption spectra, and surface phytoplankton pigment (HPLC and fluorometric chlorophyll a) data. To date we have collected a broad and diverse data set from the North and Equatorial Atlantic, North and South Pacific, and Indian Ocean basins with some lines continuing through the Southern Ocean to the Antarctic. Our major science achievement to date resulted in a new understanding of the relative roles of biogeochemical vs. ventilation on subsurface CDOM distributions. This work also has provided considerable validation data in poorly sampled areas of the ocean.

Here, we propose to continue this effort on upcoming CO2/CLIVAR sections in the Arabian Sea, South Atlantic, Southern Ocean, and North Atlantic, and to further enhance the program by adding a newly constructed flow-through system that will also measure surface inherent optical properties (IOPs) such as spectral absorption, backscattering and particle size spectra (and chlorophyll and CDOM fluorescence), in whole water and 0.2 micron filtered water. Our field effort will be closely coupled to our ongoing collaborative efforts in developing new ocean color products useful for assessing global productivity and carbon cycling. The combination of field and satellite data analyses will enable us to understand the controls on plankton community structure allowing an understanding of the processes by which phytoplankton community structure affects open ocean IOPs and how one can best assess community structure characteristics from IOPs.
---------------

Norm Nelson 1/30/08-7/29/11 $867,500
David A. Siegel
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NNX08AH17G(NNN05)

The Bermuda Bio-Optics Project: Biological and biogeochemical responses to decade-scale climate forcing.

BBSR will support one research technician (hereafter called BBOP technician; Level I) under the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) timeshare technician program. The time-share technician program is a service in which BBSR technicians carry out specific services (i.e. sample collection) for scientists "piggybacking" on BATS cruise time. Day-to-day supervision of the technician is done by the BATS program (R. Johnson/M. Lomas). The BBOP technician, selected and trained by Dr. N. Nelson, will be employed by the Bermuda Biological Station for Research, Inc. and be resident in Bermuda. This arrangement has been operating successfully for the last three years in its present form.

The BBOP technician will be responsible for operation of the BBOP spectroradiometer and other relevant instruments on each of the monthly (or biweekly) BATS cruises, sample collection and analysis, and delivery of data to UCSB. In addition to these core and bloom BATS cruises, the technician will be responsible for sample collection on relevant BATS validation cruises conducted throughout the year. The technician will be responsible for all routine maintenance on project instruments. The BBOP technician will also travel with the instruments to California for calibration and other necessary efforts three times per year.

The BATS program will continue to collaborate with Dr. N. Nelson’s laboratory closely on issues of mutual interest, in particular BATS spatial data collections and validation cruises, and phytoplankton pigment analysis calibration. It is also anticipated that other BATS technical staff will cross-train along with the BBOP Technician to ensure some level of technical redundancy in routine sampling procedures in order to maintain the integrity of this very valuable dataset.

Through this subcontract, the BBOP technician will perform the at-sea sampling of spectroradiometry and in situ Inherent Optical Property (IOP) profiles, solar transmittance spectra, and dissolved and particulate absorption coefficients on each BATS core and bloom cruise (16 to 20 per year) and during Bermuda Testbed Mooring (BTM) deployment and recovery cruises. In addition, data will be collected on other cruises of opportunity if space is available aboard the R/V Weatherbird II, such as the BATS spatial variability "validation" cruises (2-4 cruises per year, ca. 5 days each cruise).
---------------

Norm Nelson 2/8/11-2/7/14 $233,439
David Siegel
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NNX11AE99G(NNN07)

Bermuda Bio-Optics Project: Enhancement of Measurements for New Ocean Color Applications.

This project will revitalize ongoing time-series of high quality optical measurements in the field at the Bermuda time-series site. New applications for ocean color (algorithms, etc) will require novel and enhanced existing measurements of radiometric and inherent optical properties. This project will apply and test against field data, prospective algorithms addressing aspects of community structure and carbon flux, taking advantage of our time-series data records and ongoing related research at the site. We intend to introduce and test evolutionary improvements to techniques for measuring radiometric optical properties at the site. In particular the beginning part of the project will include development of an autonomous free-floating profiling optical buoy system (the Near-Surface Profiling Buoy, NSPB). The NSPB is a flexible, easily deployed, and is a cost-effective alternative to long-term, moored optical buoy installations. The NSPB eliminates the need to address biofouling and extrapolation to the sea surface from discrete fixed depths, which complicate data analysis from long-term moored optical buoy data. This approach also avoids modeling of upwelling radiance from the reflected sky radiance, which bedevils above-water approaches. We believe a global network of short-term, autonomous profile systems, patterned after the system proposed here, would change how ocean color satellite vicarious calibration is performed. The NSPB system will also make direct and diffuse incident irradiance determinations which will be useful for assessing aerosol and cloud optical properties and incident spectral irradiance at the sea surface. BBOP will provide a proving ground for this instrumentation, which will replace currently-conducted handheld optics profiles.
---------------

Roger Nisbet 9/1/09-12/31/10 138,400
University of California, 019072-02(NRP01)

Integrating Bioenergetics, Spatial Scales, and Population Dynamics for Environmental Flow Assessment.

This research focuses on “new ecologically based approaches” and our overarching objective will be to explore some of the ideas advanced by Anderson et al (2006) for facilitating the inclusion of process-based dynamic, ecological models into environmental flow assessments.

Anderson et al. reviewed a large body of literature relating to ecological dynamics in riverine systems and identified four areas where further research is required before process-based modeling will make a deeper contribution to environmental flow assessments. Our proposed research addresses two of these: (i) improving bioenergetic-based models of population dynamics to allow them to address flow variability in streams and rivers and (ii) testing methods to understand the effects of spatial variability on population and community responses to changes in flow regime. Each component will build on conceptual advances and data gathered by a group at UCSB, led by Dr. Tom Dunne and funded by CALFED, studying a restored section of the Merced River. We shall also collaborate in part (A) with fisheries scientists including Drs. Masami Fujiwara and Steve Lindley (both at NMFS, Santa Cruz) and in part (B) with members of a multi-investigator group at the University of Calgary, led by Dr. Edward McCauley, who have recently started a 3-year study whose aims include determining methods to relate spatial scales of population variation to flow regimes.
---------------

Roger Nisbet 10/1/10-6/30/12 $107,989
University of California, 20110022(NRP02)

Investigations in Fisheries Ecology.

Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory uses systems of differential equations to describe the rates at which individual organisms assimilate and utilize energy and elemental matter from food for maintenance, growth, reproduction and development. These rates depend on the state of the organism (age, size, sex, nutritional status, etc.) and on the state of its environment (food density, temperature,etc.). The objective of the research is to develop a DEB model for Chinook salmon that links the available knowledge on all stages from eggs to mature adult, and opens the way to future modeling of the complex salmon dynamics in space and time. Characterization of the physical and biotic environments that determine the forcing functions for the model will come from models provided by other investigators. The primary product will be a prototype
“full life cycle” DEB with parameters estimated from literature data. By the end of the one?year project, the model will be available for coupling different forcing functions; this will involve resolving theoretical issues relating to matching of spatial scales. Components of the work will include:
• Initial selection of state variables for each life stage
• Literature search for empirical guidance on the “maturity” variable characterizing the transitions between stages
• Formulation of submodel for feeding
• Model parameterization from literature – first cut
• Preliminary model testing and refinement as needed
• Evaluation of implications of environmental forcing at different spatial scales
• Preparation of peer?reviewed papers
• Attendance at project meetings
---------------

J. Carter Ohlmann 12/1/08-3/31/12 $146,651
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, 1360271(OCP10)

Impact of NASA Satellite Data and Models on U.S. Coast Guard's Decision Support Tool for Search and Rescue in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean.

A drifter study is being proposed for a quantitative indication of horizontal advection and diffusion processes in the study region over a wide range of time and space scales. Drifters provide a direct measure of transport pathways taken by surface water parcels. In addition, dispersion values are accurately obtained from drifter data by considering the relative motion of drifter pairs. Finally, drifter data can quantify sub-grid-scale motions averaged in H.F. radar fields, and provide a means for quantifying trajectories determined from both Eulerian data (i.e. H.F. radar) and numerical models.

The primary goals of the proposed drifter work are:
   ? observe the eddy energy on scales not resolved by HF radar
   ? validate HF radar derived velocities
   ? quantify the skill of trajectories determined from numerical models

Data from a set of drifting buoys, or drifters, will be collected and used to achieve the project goals. A total of 12 drifters will be repetitively deployed in a variety of configurations so as to achieve the project goals during the ~2 week intensive sampling program. The first sampling configuration (hereafter “small scale deployment”) will involve placing all 12 drifters uniformly within a 1x1 km HF radar grid cell. As the drifters leave the box, they will be retrieved and redeployed so as to maintain a nearly uniform distribution throughout the box. This sampling configuration will give in situ time and space average surface current values over the same scales as observed with HF radar, thus allowing for validation HF radar data and quantification of the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) that exists on sub HF radar scales (i.e. Ohlmann et al 2007). Knowledge of the quality of HF radar data and the aliased energy are crucial parameters that must accompany assimilation of HF radar data in numerical models.

The second sampling configuration (hereafter “large scale deployment”) will involve successive deployment of clusters of 3 drifters throughout a day. The drifters will be left to sample the circulation for roughly 3 days, or until it appears they are near beaching or exiting the sound. This sampling configuration will give in situ trajectories that can be used for quantifying skill of trajectories obtained from numerical model results. In addition, the data will give examples of how trajectories can change with small variations in the deployment time. Finally, computation of eddy diffusivity values on a number of scales from drifter pair separation statistics will provide direct observations of eddy motions that are parameterized in numerical models.

Small scale deployments will occur within an HF radar grid cell located where radials are near orthogonal so as to avoid errors from geometric dilution of precision. This sampling configuration will be carried out for 1 day at the beginning, middle, and end of the observational period. Drifters will be drogued at a depth of 1 meter, close to integration depth of the radar which depends on HF radar operating frequency. Large scale deployments will occur during the first and second weeks of the intensive observational period so as to (presumably) capture flows during two unique synoptic events. Drogue depth, primarily at 1 meter, will be altered on one of the cluster releases to look at variation in the effect of wind drift with depth. This will be especially useful for model validation which assimilates surface data and predicts subsurface values. A recent study shows the significance of vertical shear in the horizontal current field over the top few meters of the ocean on determination of trajectories (French McCay et al. 2007)

High resolution Microstar drifters, built by Pacific Gyre Corporation (Carlsbad, CA), are proposed. The recently developed Microstar (Ohlmann et al. 2005) records its position with GPS and transmits the position data to a host computer using the Iridium satellite communications network. Data transmission is near real-time allowing drifter positions to be monitored from any computer with internet access. Position data, sampled every 10 minutes, is accurate to within ~10 m. The sampling frequency provides a high signal-to-noise ratio even in small velocity regimes. The spatial accuracy and near real-time transmission enables drifters to be recovered and redeployed. The Microstar uses a collapsible scaled-down tri-star type drogue with a drag-area-ratio greater than 41 that is centered at ~1 m depth. Slip is ~0.1% of the wind speed (~1 cm/s in 10 m/s of wind) which is typical of modern-day drifters. The Microstar is appropriate for the proposed work for a number of reasons. First, it has extremely high spatial and temporal resolution, required to resolve the small scales of motion that characterize coastal flows. Second, it is extremely economical. The drifters are recoverable (rather than expendable). Finally, drifter slip is minimal, and known.
---------------

J. Carter Ohlmann 4/26/06-9/30/10 $247,000
Office of Naval Research, N00014-06-1-0722(OCO02)

Submeso-scale Dynamics of the Lombok Trait.

Sea straits are generally small but significant bodies of water which facilitate water-mass exchange between ocean basins, and provide vital transport routes for maritime shipping operations. Ocean circulation within straits is typically characterized by highly energetic throughflows that interact with local bathymetry and give rise to complex meso- and submeso-scale patterns. Existing circulation studies in major straits focus on the overall transport between connected basins and address variations in transport on seasonal to inter-annual timescales. The submeso-scale flow within ocean straits is scarcely sampled, poorly understood, and not adequately resolved in ocean models.

This project will observe the surface circulation in the Lombok Strait on spatial scales ranging from 10’s of meters to a few km, and time scales ranging from 10’s of minutes to a day, with GPS-located, reusable drifters. The overall objective of the research is an observational understanding of meso- and submeso-scale transient features that occur in the Lombok Strait circulation. This will ultimately facilitate development of an accurate regional modeling system for use in Navy (and related) operations. Surface circulation observations will indicate the important processes and scales that must be resolved in models, provide a means for model validation, and furnish data for assimilation.
---------------

J. Carter Ohlmann 3/15/11-3/14/12 $151,965
Oregon State University, S1364A-A(OCP12)

DYNAmics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation / DYNAMO Subsurface Fluxes.

Solar radiation plays a primary role in the diurnal (mixed layer) stratification process influencing both daytime EKE dissipation and setting up nighttime convection (e.g. Simpson and Dickey 1981, Price et al. 1986, Brainerd and Gregg 1993, Hosegood et al. 2008). Direct measurement of the in-water solar flux divergence, or radiant heating rates, allows variations in solar forcing of stratification, that can be significant, to be accurately quantified (e.g. Ohlmann et al. 1996, Ohlmann et al. 1998, Ohlmann et al. 2000, Hosegood et al. 2008). Solar attenuation depends primarily on upper ocean chlorophyll biomass concentration in open ocean waters. Chlorophyll biomass depends (to first order) on the availability of light and nutrients. When measured together, these data inform on bio-physical feedbacks. This statement of work describes the proposed measurement of surface irradiance and in water solar flux profiles during the Dynamo field experiment. Collecting solar flux profiles allows upper ocean stratification, an important component of upper ocean mixed layer evolution, to be quantified. It is also proposed that water samples be collected for laboratory analysis of chlorophyll biomass and nutrients. These data are necessary to understand why the in-water solar flux divergence varies, and the sampling adds little cost to the project. Upper ocean models work with solar transmission, defined as solar flux at depth relative to the incident value just above the surface. Surface irradiance will thus be sampled with a radiometer mounted on the ship’s mast. The complete data set, to be collected throughout the MJO-evolution cruises, will provide the necessary solar transmission information for accurate quantification of upper-ocean mixing, and will allow the bio-physical influence on stratification/dissipation to be better understood. Profiles of downwelling irradiance and upwelling radiance in 11 spectral bands (~300 to ~700 nm) will be measured using a Satlantic Profiler II Radiometer (www.satlantic.com/profiler). The radiometer is a long (122 cm) slender (9 cm in diameter) hand-deployed freefalling instrument (retrieved using a small winch) that eludes ship motion and shadow. Coincident measurements of downwelling spectral irradiance and total solar radiation incident at the surface will be made so that solar transmission profiles can be computed. It is estimated that solar flux profiles will be made to ~40 meters every few hours each day. It is possible that profiles in the morning and evening hours, when total solar energy is reduced, can be made shallower. Water samples at discrete depths will be collected once each day with the ship’s CTD/Rosette system and analyzed for chlorophyll concentration and nutrients. The noontime CTD/Rosette casts will be performed to ~150 meters so that the deep chlorophyll maximum and nutricline are resolved. The radiometer primarily resolves the visible portion of the entire solar spectrum. This is sufficient to resolve the solar flux at depths beneath ~5 m as energy in the ultra-violet and near-infrared spectral regions is completely attenuated in the top few meters of the ocean.
---------------

J. Carter Ohlmann 7/1/08-6/30/12 $212,000
University of California, SB090036(OCP09)

Observations of Surface Current Trajectories from the Inshore California Current Region.

This is a proposal to participate in the collection of Lagrangian surface current observations in the California Current System, primarily off California’s central coast. The drifter velocity observations are intended to supplement Eulerian current profiles collected along “line 90” as part of the CalCOFI program, and will provide new insight into the connection between continental shelf flows and the larger scale California Current located further offshore.

• Organize drifter deployments during each of 4 quarterly CalCOFI cruises
• Facilitate additional “regional” drifter deployments along the Central California coast
• Obtain and organize historical drifter data relevant to the proposed study region
The proposed work involves release of drifters on each of four quarterly CalCOFI cruises and along the inner-edge of the California Current System off the Central California coast during additional cruises. I will arrange the loading of equipment and coordinate release locations with the Chief Scientist on each of the CalCOFI cruises. I will determine the cruise schedules for research vessels affiliated with the local research institutions (i.e. UCSB, Cal Poly SLO, MBARI, SF state, UCD) and facilitate the loading of equipment and deployment of drifters during a set of additional cruises. These cruises will be spaced between the CalCOFI cruises in time and in be in regions over the outer edge of the continental shelf. Finally, in order to help identify optimal locations for drifter deployments, I will gather and organize all historical drifter data collected in the proposed study region. This includes obtaining SVP data archived at AOML as well as the CODE-type drifter data collected by Winant and colleagues (UCSD/SIO) with MMS funding. The latter data set is focused on the Santa Barbara Channel region, but many drifters sample well beyond.
---------------

J. Carter Ohlmann 2/1/11-1/31/13 $18,338
University of California, SB110079(OCP11)

Improving the Understanding of Submesoscale Eddies, Fronts, and Filaments with Coincident Satellite, in situ, and Aircraft Measurements

In this drifter study, Dr. Ohlmann will be involved in instrument preparation, data collection, data processing, and data analysis. The analysis will involve combining the drifter position data and their derived products with other data sets collected as part of this project to achieve the project goals.
---------------

Susannah Porter 9/1/09-8/31/12 $214,813
National Science Foundation, 0922305(PSN01)

COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: Ocean Oxidation and the Biosphere During Neoproterozoic Glaciation

An increase in Earth surface oxygen levels has long been invoked as a driver of biological innovation at the end of the Neoproterozoic Era (1000 to ~541 million years ago), when diverse macroscopic life, including animals, first flourished. Recent work suggests that a pulse in ocean oxygenation ~580 million years ago may have permitted the evolution of animals, but almost no consideration has been paid to the relationship between biology and fluctuating oxygen levels earlier in the Neoproterozoic, in particular spanning the Cryogenian (a.k.a. ‘snowball Earth’) glaciations ~720 to 635 million years ago, when Earth may have been entombed in ice. The aim of this project is two-fold: (1) reconstruct oxygen levels and biology during the Cryogenian glacial interval; and (2) test the hypothesis that fluctuating oxygen levels are linked to changes in the diversity and composition of biological communities observed during this time. To address these goals, the Senior Personnel and their collaborators will undertake micropaleontological, geochemical, and geochronologic analyses of shales collected from successions in Svalbard, an archipelago north of Norway, and in four separate basins in Australia. Collectively, these units span the entire interval of Cryogenian glaciation. Samples from Svalbard have already been collected; samples from Australia will be collected during two field seasons, one in Tasmania, the other on the Australian mainland. All analyses will be performed on the same suite of stratigraphically well-defined samples, allowing records of life and oxygen availability to be unambiguously linked and placed within the context of Neoproterozoic climate change.
---------------

Simone Pulver 7/1/09-2/28/13 $253,556
National Science Foundation, SES-100317(PS1F01)

Collaborative Research: Creating Carbon Markets in Brazil and India: A Comparative Study of Firm Environmental Investment Decisions Under the Clean Development Mechanism

Looking forward, three sets of activities remain to be completed:
1. Complete data collection: Context and on-site interviews for Brazil’s cement sector will be conducted in July/August 2009. In addition, firm-level data collection in the cement and sugar sectors in both countries will be completed by end of 2009. This data will be collected via both telephone interviews and on-site interviews with research assistants.
2. Data analysis: The data analysis phase will be conducted at PI Pulver and collaborating PI Hultman’s respective home institutions in the United States. Data analysis will include data processing, collaboration with a statistics consultant, and several meetings of the research team at both the University of California, Santa Barbara and the University of Maryland. Data analysis may also involve some follow-up contact with firm interviewees in both Brazil and India.
3. Dissemination of research findings: The dissemination phase involves, foremost, publication in appropriate peer-reviewed journals and a book format and presentation of papers at academic conferences. However, we believe this research has wider relevance for international environmental policy and investment decisions, so we also intend to expand the audience for this research by presenting at the UN Climate Conference in Copenhagen (December 2009) and organizing two 1-day capstone conferences (in São Paulo, June 2010; and New Delhi, January 2011).
---------------

Joshua Schimel 7/1/09-6/30/11 $10,000
National Science Foundation, 20091548(SJF01)

Dissolved Organic Matter in the Arctic: What does it Look Like, Why does it Matter?

The molecular structures and proportions of the compounds that make up dissolved organic matter (DOM) in the Arctic are largely a mystery. Knowing what these molecules look like is essential to predict how they will behave with changing environmental conditions such as temperature and moisture. Current carbon cycling models fail in the Arctic; therefore, these valuable data need to be gathered so the new accurate models can be developed. The DOM from three vegetation types: tussock tundra, wet meadow, and shrub tundra, will be evaluated at the snow melt (May & June), and freeze transitions (September & November) in Northern Alaska. The characteristics of DOM will be evaluated as a mixture of components and then as individual molecules. Analytical techniques that have never been applied to environmental samples will functionally identify dissolved compounds that are produced by metabolic and abiotic processes in the soil. This work will address three main questions: (1) what are the major components of DOM in the three vegetation types, (2) do they vary seasonally, and (3) which characteristics cause the variation and which should be incorporated into models? In the course of this work the guidance from two sponsoring scientists will provide background and resources in a field that is new to me. In turn, I will provide technical expertise in analytical methods that have not been applied to ecological questions. The broader community will be included in this work through K-12 outreach and by teaching research skills to undergraduate and graduate students.
---------------

Joshua Schimel 9/1/09-8/31/12 $313,386
National Science Foundation, ARC-0902038(SJF03)

Collaborative Research: The Changing Seasonality of Tundra Nutrient Cycling: Inplications for Ecosystem and Arctic System Functioning.

The UCSB research group will participate in the summer field campaigns measuring soil nutrients. This will involve sending a graduate student to the Arctic for the summer each year. This work will involve extensive sampling to capture the high-frequency changes we are studying. The student will also have two main responsibilities during the rest of the year: they will be in charge of soil carbohydrate and amino acid analyses using the Schimel lab HPLC, and they will be responsible for doing most of the project’s modeling. The student will spend time each year in Woods Hole Massachusetts working with Ed Rastetter on the modeling. Schimel will spend time each year in Alaska working on the field project and in Woods Hole Massachusetts working with Rastetter and the Ph.D. student.
---------------

Joshua Schimel 9/1/09-8/31/12 $301,642
National Science Foundation, ARC-0909510(SJF02)

Collaborative Research: Environmental Changes Alter the Carbon Cycle of High Arctic Ecosystems: Shifts in the Ages and Sources of CO2 and DOC.

UCSB will be responsible for soil microbial measurements on this project. That will involve several trips to Greenland each year to collect samples. They will return those samples to Santa Barbara and analyze them for nitrogen mineralization, microbial biomass, soil enzyme activities, and microbial community composition. Together, they will be responsible for integrating these measurements with other researchers on the project. This work will involve roughly 1.5 months in the field each year for the student. Schimel will spend 1-2 weeks in the field each year.
---------------

Joshua Schimel 09/01/11 – 08/30/12 $15,000
Seeta Sistla
National Science Foundation, 1110843(SJF05)

Dissertation Rersearch: Exploring the Impacts of Long-Term Warming on Arctic Soils: Linking Microbial Communities with Seasonal Biogeochemical Dynamics.

1.   Estimate changes in soil C and N stocks with warming (July, 2008).Characterize extractable C and N, soil incubation-derived C-mineralization rates, extracellular enzymatic potential and microbial biomass across soil horizons and seasons.
2.   Characterize differences in actively growing and overall microbial community composition in response to warming and link this community data with concurrently collected biogeochemical data (preliminary data from May 2009, through seasons 2010, data analysis through 2012).
3.   Incorporate biogeochemical data from the project into a model framework (2010 - 2013).
---------------

Joshua Schimel 9/15/09-8/31/12 $183,643
National Science Foundation, DEB-0919049(SJF04)

Collaborative Research: MSB: Microbial Control of Litter Decay at the Cellulose-Lignin Interface.

Schimel and the graduate student will travel to Ohio regularly to coordinate with the U. Toledo and cooperating groups on the field work, setting up and running incubations on the litter samples in Dr. Mike Weintraub’s lab. We will then return litter samples to UCSB and analyze them for 13C-labeled phospholipid fatty acids. These provide indicators of specific microbial groups that were active in taking up particular chemical substrates (cellulose and lignin). Our group will analyze these results and coordinate with the modeling group to validate the microbial guild model that is at the heart of this project.

---------------

Jiancheng Shi 12/1/08-12/31/11 $246,004
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1360781(SJ2P04)

Technical Development for SMAP Soil Moisture Retrieval.

The Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) mission, to be launched in 2013, will use a combined L-band radiometer (40 km) and high-resolution radar (1-3 km) to measure surface soil moisture and freeze-thaw state. Dr. Jiancheng Shi at University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB) will contribute to the SMAP mission through two complementary efforts.

(1)   Dr. Jiancheng Shi will contribute, along with other SMAP team members, to establish the soil moisture algorithm test-beds for SMAP mission. Specifically, Dr. Jiancheng Shi will provide computer simulations of the SMAP backscatter and brightness temperature response to a geophysical scene typical of that to be observed by SMAP. The backscatter and brightness temperature simulations will include effects of soil and vegetation, and noise and calibration error characteristics typical of those expected for SMAP. The output of the simulations will be a database that will be made available to other members of the SMAP team.
(2)   Dr. Jiancheng Shi will participate with other SMAP team members to provide the guidance and associated physical theory on the directions of soil moisture retrieval algorithm developments using passive, active, and combined active-passive approaches by the performance of validation, analyses and documents on the current and any new algorithms. Specifically, Dr. Jiancheng Shi will
?   Using the current state-art microwave theoretical models to evaluate the algorithm’s basic assumptions and sensitivities on soil moisture, surface roughness, and vegetation properties to direct improvements on algorithms;
?   Using the current available ground, airborne, and satellite experimental data to evaluate the algorithm’s basic assumptions and sensitivities on soil moisture, surface roughness, and vegetation properties to direct improvements on algorithms.
?   Retrievals will be performed by the current available algorithms on this database to assess the ability to recover soil moisture in the presence of vegetation and other instrument and geophysical noise.
---------------

David Siegel 7/22/08-7/21/10 $144,465
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NNX08AW99G(SDN28)

New Bio-Optical Observations for Future CLIVAR Cruises.

We propose to augment our on-going sampling and analysis of the global colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) distribution on CLIVAR / Repeat Hydrography transects to include underway sampling of surface water inherent optical properties (IOPs) using novel instrumentation that size fractionate the bio-optical signals. The observations this new underway sampling system will be very useful for validating NASA ocean biology and biogeochemistry missions and for developing new satellite data algorithms for carbon species. This work can be performed without additional berths or wire time on the CLIVAR / Repeat Hydrography cruises. We are also requesting for additional technician time for analyzing CDOM samples being taken for us now from CLIVAR / Repeat Hydrography cruise I6S (South Africa to Antarctica).

---------------

David Siegel 9/15/06-8/31/10 $199,410
National Science Foundation, 0628389(SDF09)

Collaborative Research: Carbon Flux through the twilight zone - new tools to measure change.

The UCSB group proposes to conduct a combination of remote sensing, numerical modeling and data analysis tasks to assess the role of time/space variability of export around the trap deployments on the monthly inferences of C export. During the time series operations, the UCSB group will help in at-field sampling by forecasting where the deployed TZEX and NBST traps will go and where did they collect sinking particles (as we did in VERTIGO). This requires some at-sea work measuring and analyzing currents from the R/V Ocean Explorer’s ADCP system and combining them with satellite altimetry maps of surface currents. This will require UCSB staff (Fields and Siegel) to go to Bermuda many times during this grant period. We will also assess the sampling scales of the NBST and tethered traps deployed here and will analyze available merged ocean color imagery to assess the time/space variability of Chl and NPP surrounding each trap deployment enabling us to assess the importance of episodic blooms. (e.g., Siegel et al 2006).
---------------

David Siegel 5/15/07-5/14/11 $155,574
Princeton University, 00001466(SDP09)

Ocean color, carbon and circulation: Studies with an Earth System Model.

This work will focus on the bio-optical modeling and the application of large-scale ocean color imagery to the goals in the main proposal. Specifically, we propose to
·   develop bio-optical models for radiant heating applications which include colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM),
·   assist the Princeton group in modeling of CDOM dynamics within a standard ecosystem model frame,
·   validate the Princeton model output using available ocean color satellite and in situ data sets,
·   analyze trends (time, space, EOF modal, etc.) in merged MODIS / SeaWIFS data to develop useful twin experiments for simulaitons, and
·   collaborate with the Princeton group in the interpretation of and publication of results from the project.

The UCSB group is uniquely suited to conduct this work. For example, we have developed a large database of available bio-optical properties from which bio-optical models that include CDOM can be developed (www.icess.ucsb.edu/OCisD/request_data.html). A recent graduating student, Jon Klamberg, completed his Masters thesis developing a 1-D mixed layer model of CDOM cycling at the Bermuda Atlantic Time series Site (BATS). His results will help in our modeling of CDOM dynamics within the Princeton group’s ecosystem model. Last, the UCSB group has developed a merged data set of MODIS / SeaWIFS imagery of chlorophyll concentrations, CDOM and particulate backscatter coefficients (see www.icess.ucsb.edu/~manuela/oceancolor.html).
---------------

David Siegel 5/1/07-4/30/11 $834,662
Steven Gaines
Phaedon Kyriakidis
Stéphane Maritorena
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NNX07AF08G (SDN25)

Remote Assessment of Giant Kelp Dynamics - The Engineer of California's Nearshore Ecosystems.

Forests of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera), found on shallow subtidal reefs along much of coastal California, are some of the most productive ecosystems in the world. Kelp forests have great economic value and are harvested for use in products ranging from pharmaceuticals and cosmetics to food products and aquaculture feed. Perhaps more importantly, giant kelp is an “ecosystem engineer” providing both food and habitat to a diverse array of biologically and commercially important species of algae, invertebrates, fish, and marine mammals while exporting large quantities of organic matter to adjacent littoral and continental shelf ecosystems. Economic analyses show California kelp forests create at least $250 million in revenue each year.

Here, we propose to develop a predictive understanding of giant kelp forests in the nearshore waters of California using a combination of remote sensing, numerical modeling and the analysis of available field data. We will take advantage of high resolution, multi-spectral SPOT imagery to map kelp cover dynamics on spatial scales of >10 m and monthly time scales. We will develop new measures of kelp productivity and kelp canopy condition that can be assayed using available remote sensing imagery as well as to guide future mission planning. We will examine the role of disturbance and other environmental factors such as surface wave stress (using regional wave models), coastal currents (using HF radar remote sensing), sediment plumes (using MODIS & SeaWiFS ocean color imagery) and nutrient availability (using field and remote sensing proxies) on our high resolution observations of kelp canopy cover. Our goal is to use these data to develop a predictive understanding of kelp forest metapopulation dynamics (e.g., persistence, colonization, disturbance, etc.) that can be applied to the California coast. This work has a multitude of real-world applications including the ecological assessment of marine resources in the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary as well as the state-mandated implementation of marine reserves along the California coast.

This work will be conducted in collaboration with the NOAA Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary (http://www.cinms.nos.noaa.gov/), the Santa Barbara Coastal Long Term Ecological Research project (http://sbc.lternet.edu/; NSF support), and the Coastal Data Information Project (http://cdip.ucsd.edu/; USGS & State of California support).
---------------

David Siegel 9/1/10-8/31/12 $60,000
Rebecca Lawson
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NH10AP28H(SDN29)

Phytoplankton Community Composition and Inherent Optical Properties (IOP) in a Complex Coastal Environment.

Ocean color remote sensing has revolutionized our understanding of the global ocean by providing information about primary productivity, biogeochemical cycling and particle size distributions in the surface ocean (Behrenfeld et al., 2005; Kostadinov et al., 2009). Space-borne satellites allow us to remotely sense light reflectance on spatial and temporal scales impossible to achieve by any other means. The remote-sensing reflectance of ocean waters, RRS (), is a function of the absorption and backscattering coefficients of seawater, termed inherent optical properties (IOP’s). IOP’s are in turn an additive function of seawater’s IOP’s (considered constant), and the IOP’s of in-water constituents, such as phytoplankton, colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), detrital particulates and suspended sediments. Various empirical and semi-analytical algorithms exist to inversely model these bio-optical properties from ocean reflectance data (e.g., Maritorena et al. 2002).

Both the Sea-viewing Wide Field of View Sensor (SeaWiFS) and the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are widely used satellite sensors for measuring ocean reflectance. Standard NASA algorithms (OC4v4 & OC3M) quantifies chlorophyll a concentration from ocean reflectance using an empirical relationship between RRS () and in situ measurements of chlorophyll a (O’Reilly et al., 1998 and updates). This algorithm works well for areas of the open ocean where ocean color is dominated by phytoplankton properties and other constituents are assumed to roughly covary with changes in chlorophyll a (IOCCG, 2000). The Garver-Siegel-Maritorena algorithm (GSM) is a semi-analytical model that quantifies three IOP’s from RRS (): backscattering due to particles, absorption of light due to phytoplankton and absorption of light due to dissolved and detrital organic material (Maritorena et al., 2002; Siegel et al., 2005). Empirical coefficients for the three IOP’s are determined by in situ measurements and held constant in the model based on a global data summary. Recent studies have shown that remote sensing is also a useful too for inversely modeling phytoplankton community structure (e.g., Alvain et al., 2008). Some phytoplankton pigments absorb and/or reflect light with a unique spectral shape. Alvain et al. (2006) was able to explain the variability in chlorophyll a concentrations modeled with the empirical algorithm by the direct relationship of LwN () spectral shape with phytoplankton community composition (Alvain et al, 2004; Alvain et al., 2006). Chemotaxonomic pigment data, used to identify phytoplankton groups or functional types, is becoming increasingly available and this novel approach will boost our understanding about community structure for the global ocean.

Coastal areas can be optically complex due to high turbidity, primary productivity and CDOM from deepwater upwelling and/or river inputs and the associated IOP’s may vary independently (IOCCG, 2000). Such areas of optical complexity, termed Case II areas, often require local calibration for empirical coefficients used in remote sensing algorithms such as the GSM. Magnuson et al. (2004) found that locally tuning the GSM Model for the Chesapeake Bay and the Mid-Atlantic Bight resulted in better-calculated chlorophyll a measurements than the global GSM and OC4v4 Models. However, Kostadinov et al. (2007) locally calibrated the GSM Model for the Santa Barbara Channel (SBC) and found no improvement in model performance for any of the IOP’s compared with the global version of the GSM Model. The lack of model improvement was attributed to the assumption that spectral shape of the IOP’s is constant in time; therefore the empirical coefficients are held constant. IOP characteristics for the SBC are in fact much more dynamic. Taking a similar approach to that of Alvain et al. (2004), my overarching research question is “How do changes in phytoplankton community structure influence inherent optical properties and thereby ocean color in a complex coastal ocean?”
---------------

David Siegel 1/29/08-1/28/12 $850,000
Stéphane Maritorena
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NNX08AG82G(SDN26)

Ocean color study of plumes and blooms in the Santa Barbara Channel.

We propose to continue the PnB field program which started August of 1996. Each PnB cruise is made up of seven oceanographic stations (Figure 1), all taken on one day. At each station, a variety of optical, physical, biological, chemical and geological oceanographic parameters are sampled (Table 1). All sampling protocols and analysis methods have been consistently applied and are consistent with those recommended by the SeaWiFS, SIMBIOS and JGOFS programs (e.g., Knap et al. 1993; Mueller and Austin, 1995; Fargion and Mueller, 2000). Documentation for PnB field procedures is available at www.icess.ucsb.edu/PnB/MethodsManual.html.

Determinations of water leaving radiance spectra LwN(l) are the key ingredient in any ocean color field effort. Estimates of LwN(l) will be determined by analysis of spectroradiometry profiles (a BSI PRR-2600 system). We have published an intercomparison analysis using PnB data which indicates that determinations of LwN(l) are best made using determinations of the upwelling radiance leaving the ocean and measurements of incident irradiance (Toole et al. 2000). In addition, vertical profiles of diffuse attenuation coefficient spectra, Kd(z,l), are measured. All radiometric measurements are calibrated at UCSB against NIST traceable standards (O’Brien et al. 2000). The UCSB facility has participated in all SIRREX and SIMBIOS calibration studies (O’Brien et al. 2000; simbios.gsfc.nasa.gov/RoundRobin/).

At each station, discrete water samples will be collected for surface waters using our SeaBird CTD/rosette sampler (12 5-liter Niskin bottles). Analyses will be made for chlorophyll a (Turner fluorometry), inorganic nutrient (SiO4, NO3, NO2 & PO4; UCSB analytical lab), particulate organic material (POC & PON; UCSB analytical lab), dissolved organic material (DOC & DON; Craig Carlson’s lab - UCSB) and lithogenic and biogenic particulate silica (Mark Brzezinski’s lab - UCSB) concentrations. The POC/PON and DOC/DON sampling is new for PnB and we started collected samples for analysis in January of this year. Samples will also be taken for phytoplankton pigment concentrations.

Spectrophotometric analysis of absorption coefficients for colored dissolved organic material, particulate detritus and phytoplankton (analyzed by our group). We find that use of the Mitchell [1990] beta correction results in the overestimate of aph(675) by as much as 70%. We have conducted several experiments to produce a beta correction algorithm for PnB which produce much more reasonable results (Guillocheau, 2003). At PnB station 4 (the SB Channel center), profiles of most discrete determinations are made at 6 depths over the upper 75 m. This results in 13 discrete samples per PnB cruise. Hydrographic parameters are available from the CTD for analyses of water mass variability (Siegel et al., 2006a).

A suite of inherent optical property (IOP) instrumentation is also deployed with the CTD/rosette system (WETLabs AC9 and HOBI Labs Hydroscat-6). This enables us to determine in situ profiles of spectral absorption, a(z,l), beam attenuation, c(z,l), total scattering b(z,l) and backscattering, bb(z,l), coefficients. Clear water calibrations are done for the AC9 instrumentation before each cruise using a Mille-Q clean water system dedicated for this task. Uncertainties in our clear water calibrations are typically within 0.015 m-1 which is more than a order of magnitude smaller than the signals that we sample. Further, we calibrate the backscatter meter before each cruise using a calibration fixture of HOBI Labs' design. Over time, this instrument has shown good stability (within 3%) in its factory calibration coefficients.
---------------
Dave Siegel               11/15/05-12/31/18               $55,400
Stéphane Maritorena
ACRI-ST ST/079-496/ACR/SC/05(SDP06)

Global Ocean Colour for Carbon Cycle Research.

The Ocean Color group at ERI is a pioneer in Ocean Colour spectral data merging (Maritorena & Siegel, 2005) and has considerable knowledge in various ocean color data merging techniques. The UCSB component of this research includes recommending merging techniques to be tested based on their ability to deal with random noise or bias in the input data; their applicability for near-real time processing; their suitability for generating uncertainty estimates for the output products; and the inherent characteristics of each technique. The ICESS group is also involved in the comparison with other merged data sets such as the ones it develops and distribute as part of a NASA ReaSON-CAN project.
---------------

David Siegel 9/1/08-8/31/11 $90,000
James Watson
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NNX08AV01H(SDN27)

Integrating Satellite Observations into Fisheries Science: Quantifying Abiotic and in-flight Biotic Larval Mortality as a Means to Better Predict Population Connectivity.

Fishery yields and ecological diversity have come under increasing scrutiny of late. Environmentalists, politicians and scientists are coming to an agreement that marine resources need to be managed more effectively. Much of this crisis has come from our inadequacy to forecast the future state of marine ecosystems and fish biomass. This has led to the adoption of ecosystem-based management (EBM) methods (White et al, 2008, Botsford et al, 2003, Halpern & Warner, 2002). The work that I am proposing will improve our ability to predict a fundamental aspect of EBM: larval connectivity (Kinlan & Gaines, 2003). For many important, nearshore, fished stocks population connectivity, mediated by larval dispersal, is a fundamental driving force behind population dynamics. My work aims to predict larval connectivity. I will develop an inter-disciplinary model that integrates numerical ocean simulations with NASA data products. This model will focus, in a spatially explicit manner, on the two dominant forms of larval mortality:
• Abiotic mortality due to advection, by ocean currents, away from suitable habitat.
• In-flight biotic mortality, due to predation and starvation, along the larval dispersal trajectory.

By considering both the abiotic and biotic forms of larval mortality my work will describe larval connectivity in unprecedented detail. I propose to:
• Develop simulations of larval dispersal, using the results of existing high resolution hydrodynamic simulations of the waters off Southern California. This will generate estimates of abiotic larval mortality.
• Use satellite sea-surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll (Chl) data products to quantify the in-flight nutritional experience of dispersing larvae.
• Investigate the relationship between in-flight larval mortality and SST and Chl experience.
• Use an existing stock-harvest model to explore the economic consequences of abiotic and in-flight biotic mortality.

This work will take the Southern California Bight (SoCal Bight) as a test bed. We will develop Lagrangian particle advection simulations of larval dispersal, representing the cutting edge in our ability to predict patterns of larvae dispersal, and by integrating information generated from several NASA assets (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor/SeaWiFS, MODIS/AQUA and the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer/AVHRR), we will, for the first time, generate estimates of both the abiotic loss of larvae and the in-flight biotic loss of larvae. This will allow us to make estimates of population connectivity at an unprecedented level of temporal and spatial detail.
---------------

David Siegel 4/1/11-3/31/14 $328,539
Norm Nelson
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NNX11AF63G(SDN30)

A Mechanistic Approach Towards the Remote Assessment of Carbon Export by Sinking Particles in the Open Ocean.

Carbon export, the vertical transport of organic carbon from the surface ocean into its interior via sinking particles, is a critical part of the upper ocean carbon budget. However, our ability to remotely assess carbon export rates globally remains primitive at best as carbon export is most commonly estimated as the product of remotely sensed values of net primary production (NPP) multiplied by a very simple export-ratio model. These models may provide a reasonable assessment of present state of mean carbon export, but they will not assess changes in export as these are purely empirical models and none of the critical information about mechanisms driving export are included. To make that next step towards a mechanistic assessment of ocean carbon flux we need knowledge of upper ocean particle source material concentrations and characteristics and knowledge of how physical oceanographic processes alter upper ocean particle fields and package suspended materials into sinking particles that are exported into the ocean interior. Here we propose a coupled field, imagery analysis and modeling program aimed at understanding the mechanisms driving carbon export and developing novel tools for its remote assessment. Specifically, we will conduct two ~3200 km long meridional transects across the North Atlantic (~40 to 20ºN) collaborating with the Bermuda Atlantic Time Series (BATS). We will sample carbon export (via 234Th disequilibria) from vertical water samples and surface samples from underway collection (with 10 km spatial resolution). Concentrations of the radioisotope thorium-234 are an excellent index for euphotic zone particle removal as measured by its disequilibrium with its parent (238U) and recent technical advances enable its high spatial resolution sampling from a ship’s underway flow system. Upper ocean particle concentrations and characteristics will be sampled by measuring inherent optical properties, phytoplankton abundances and pigments, size-fractionated inherent optical property and chlorophyll concentrations, particulate organic carbon, transparent exopolymer particle (TEP) concentrations, and the particle size distribution (PSD) spectrum. These observations will be made both underway from the ship’s surface underway system and as vertical profiles. This work will constrain the types and concentrations of particles and processes that are leading to particle export. Satellite ocean color observations of inherent optical properties and the PSD will be integrated into the interpretation of the field observations. A key element of our proposal is the simultaneous observations of particle export and source material characteristics and the physical drivers of particle aggregation. Recent modeling studies have shown that Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs) can be determined from merged satellite altimetry observations. LCSs define the attracting and repelling surfaces in 2-D flow fields and provide an excellent, diagnostic tool for assessing regions where submesoscale particle aggregation will occur as well as vertical motions at fronts. The relationships among LCS locations and intensities will be evaluated using observations from the ship transects and from advance ocean color data products. The proposed combination of high-resolution field observations, remote sensing data analysis and assessment of LCSs is a unique feature of our work.
---------------

David Siegel 3/1/11-2/29/12 $50,000
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NNX11AG80G(SDN31)

Proposal for an ACE Ocean Productivity and Carbon Cycle (OPCC) Workshop.

The Aerosol-Cloud-Ecosystem (ACE) mission is one of the future NASA Earth science missions recommended in the NRC's 2007 Decadal Survey. Obviously ACE has many goals and masters; the relevant one here is the determination of ocean ecosystem productivity and carbon cycling processes on local to global scales. This is a tall order and a science working group led by Chuck McClain (NASA/GSFC) has been focused on setting mission requirements. One area where the ocean science working group has been having difficulties is for Ocean Productivity and Carbon Cycle (OPCC) parameters beyond NPP. Relevant OPCC parameters include carbon export, net community production, air-sea CO2 exchange, N2 fixation, etc. Clearly this requires a discussion among observational biogeochemists, ocean modelers and remote sensing scientists. We would like to initiate this conversation by holding a two and one-half day workshop at UCSB to address these issues June 6-8 of this year. The goals of the ACE OPCC workshop are to: 1) Prioritize the essential OPCC parameters required for answering the ACE science questions; 2) Review existing field and remote sensing methodologies for the assessment of essential OPCC parameters (on fluxes, not stocks); 3) Create product assessments for the essential OPCC parameters; 4) Address what can be achieved from satellite orbit today and identify the path forward to resolving the full suite of OPCC parameters using both models and satellite observations; 5) Propose an appropriate cal/val plan for developing & validating the essential OPCC parameters and the creation of new satellite algorithms; 6) Write a high level vision document describing our approach for assessing essential OPCC parameters from satellite observables.
---------------

David Siegel 1/1/11-12/31/13 $765,235
Norm Nelson
National Science Foundation, 1040502(SDF10)

MRI: Development of Novel Profiling Buoy Technology for Satellite Ocean Color Calibration and Data Product Validation.

The Near Surface Profiling Buoy system is a floating/profiling optical sensor system that will enhance the calibration and validation of ocean color data from satellite instruments, enabling the collection of long-term climate data records of the ocean biosphere. Intellectual Merit: We propose to develop and evaluate the performance of a novel profiling buoy system for the calibration of satellite ocean color observations and the validation of their data products. This measurement capability is essential for creating longterm satellite climate data records of the ocean biosphere – but the costs of building and deploying existing moored buoy systems are excessive ($M’s to build & ~$1M/y to deploy for each site). Our system, the Near Surface Profiling Buoy (NSPB), will autonomously collect 100’s of high-quality, near-surface irradiance / radiance profiles during each multi-day deployment as part of a standard oceanographic research cruise. The NSPB is built upon recent advances in optical profiling instrumentation designed for turbid water environments that is adapted to the calibration and validation of ocean color satellite data. The NSPB system is aimed at making day-long to week-long deployments improving the likelihood of high quality match-ups with satellite data than is possible with conventional profiling techniques. This will alleviate wire time constraints for shared research cruises, maximizing the return on research vessel time (often >$50K/day). The NSPB will be a cost-effective alternative to long-term, moored optical buoy installations for satellite ocean color sensor calibration and eliminates the need for addressing biofouling and extrapolation of subsurface signals to the sea surface, which are the major sources of uncertainty for long-term moored systems. We will test and deploy the NSPB system in both coastal and open ocean conditions as part of on-going UCSB research projects in the Santa Barbara Channel (PnB) and the Sargasso Sea (BBOP). System performance will be assessed and compared with traditional long-term moored buoy systems and conventional ship-based spectroradiometry profiling. All radiometric measurements will be fully characterized and tied to NIST standards and system radiometric performance will be monitored at UCSB. Broader Impacts: This equipment development will help reenergize long-term field research programs conducted by the UCSB group. More importantly, it will help solve a national need for a low-cost, high-performance, flexible buoy system for the calibration and validation of satellite ocean color observations. This development project has the potential to greatly improve the accuracy of present and future satellite ocean color sensors, which will have impacts far beyond this instrumentation development request. It will also involve a significant collaboration between academic researchers and the private sector that will advance the state of the art in optical technology and facilitate acquisition of quality data and instrumentation for long-term records of the ocean biosphere.
---------------

Alexander Simms 7/1/10-9/30/11 $15,515
Department of Interior, G10AC00384(SAU01)

Mapping the Terraces of the Bull Creek Drainage of Beaver County, Oklahoma

The drainages of the Oklahoma Panhandle have provided a valuable record of past environmental conditions throughout the late Pleistocene and Holocene. These archives have become very important to the archeological community as providing a place to find artifacts as well as a record of the changes that the early Native American people adapted to. However key to locating new sites and placing existing archeological finds into context is an understanding of the modern landscape and how the underlying geology affected the evolution of these forms. The purpose of this proposal is to map the underlying geology as well as the Quaternary terraces found along the Bull Creek drainage and its confluence with the Beaver River. This project will aid a current ongoing project conducted by archeologists, soil scientist, and nanoscientists to look for nanodiamonds across the Younger Dryas Boundary within the paleosols of the Bull Creek Drainage. Nanodiamonds found by previous studies at the onset of the Younger Dryas have been used as evidence to support an impact-related cause for the extinction of some megafauna, the climatic cooling of the Younger Dryas, and the change from Folsum to Clovis societies in North America. Mapping the terraces and underlying geology for the Bull Creek Drainage will allow for a better characterization of the deposits and controls on geomorphology for this important drainage system. This project will be the subject of a Masters Thesis of Mr. David Milburn – an MS candidate at Oklahoma State University, soon to be at the University of California at Santa Barbara.
---------------

Alexander Simms 7/1/10-6/30/12 $91,087
Oklahoma State University, AA-5-30220(SAP02)

Constraining the Deglaciation of the Antarctic Peninsula Using OSL Dated Beach Deposits

Despite many recent studies documenting the extent of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet (APIS) on the continental shelf, the ice sheet’s thickness remains largely unconstrained. As a result, models of the APIS since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) vary dramatically. One method of estimating the past thickness of ice sheets is the inversion of sea-level data using geophysical techniques. However, along the Antarctic Peninsula few sea-level curves exist and the few curves that do exist are in areas of known tectonic activity or subject to the limitations of a radiocarbon-derived chronology, such as a scarcity of material to date, the uncertainties associated with radiocarbon reservoir affects, and the imprecise relationship of datable material to past sea levels. Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating is a method not subject to the same limitations as radiocarbon dating. As a result it is possible to date features that are not accessible with radiocarbon methods, in particular cobbles within raised beach ridges and boulder pavements. Preliminary OSL ages from beach ridges in the South Shetland Islands of the Antarctic Peninsula show agreement with existing reservoir-corrected radiocarbon-derived sea-level curves. The purpose of this proposal is to acquire OSL dates from whole cobbles within raised beach ridges and boulder pavements from five areas in the Antarctic Peninsula. This research is transformative in the methods for obtaining ages from raised beach deposits for the creation of sea level curves for the region. Our central hypothesis is that systematic differences in sea-level histories can be seen from north to south and east to west across the Antarctic Peninsula. These systematic differences in the sea-level curves will provide important constraints on the thickness and retreat history of the APIS since the LGM. Accurate reconstructions of the ice sheet are particularly important for researchers attempting to disentangle the isostatic adjustment from satellite gravity measurements suggesting mass loss (melting) in the region and predicting the future fate of ice sheets in light of predictions of sea-level rise and global warming.
---------------

Alexander Simms 7/1/10-9/30/12 $123,084
Oklahoma State University, AA-5-31560(SAP01)

New Approaches to Unraveling the Climatic and Sea-Level History of the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico

Recent hurricanes such as Katrina and Ike have reminded policy makers and planners of the susceptibility of coastal communities to natural forces such as storms, climate change, subsidence, and eustatic sea-level rise. A large backstepping event has been identified within several Gulf Coast estuaries around 2.6 ka. The continued debate concerning the nature of sea-level change over the last 5 ka, coupled with the lack of century-scale records of climate change, leaves the cause of this event unclear. We propose to use two methods of sea-level and climate reconstructions not previously used in Gulf of Mexico studies to provide tighter constraints on the sea-level and climate history of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico over the last 5 ky. The overall objective of this proposal is to determine the sea-level and climate history along the south Texas coast at a decade-to century-scale resolution over the last 5 ky. Our central hypothesis is that the large backstepping event at 2.6 ka and the formation of higher-than-present beach ridges around Baffin Bay, Texas is not a response to a mid-Holocene highstand along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico but instead occurred in conjunction with severe drought conditions during the middle to late Holocene. In order to test our central hypothesis we propose three specific objectives: (1) create a sea-level curve based on algal mats from the mud flats of upper Baffin Bay, (2) create a detailed record of drought based on isotopes and mineralogy of sediments within a playa lake near Baffin Bay, and (3) date and survey the existing beach ridges found along the shores of Baffin Bay using OSL. In addition to testing our central hypothesis, these new records will provide tighter constraints on the glacio-hydro-isostatic conditions affecting sea levels within the Gulf of Mexico, which will allow a better reconstruction of background rates of sea-level rise throughout the region including Louisiana. The new data will also provide a longer record of century-scale drought than currently exists for the south-central USA. The transformative concepts introduced by this research include the innovative nature of our sea-level reconstruction and testing the possibility that backstepping can be caused not only by elevated rates of sea-level rise but also by climate shifts (e.g., drought conditions).
---------------

Michael Singer 8/15/05-7/31/10 $103,265
National Science Foundation, BCS-0521663(SMDF01)

Collaborative Research: Tracking Hydraulic Mining Sediments from the Sierra Piedmont into Flood Bypasses of the Sacramento Valley, California.

Hydraulic mining in the Sierra Nevada of California displaced great volumes of sediment as a byproduct of gold extraction from placer gravels. The spatial distribution of hydraulic mining sediment reworking and deposition in flood bypasses over the last century are relevant to the fate of contaminants, flood conveyance, and the land-use in the lower Sacramento Valley of California, which is undergoing a massive program of restoration and development, and to basic research on valley floor sediment budgets and floodplain sedimentation. This research employs a suite of new techniques and data to investigate the temporal and spatial links between Central Valley floodplain sedimentation and erosion of hydraulic mining sediment in the Sierra piedmont over the last century. Recent field evidence of episodic piedmont erosion and bypass deposition calls for a new investigation of the hydraulic mining sediment delivery problem in the lower Sacramento valley over the last century. The research will track the movement of fine sediments derived from hydraulic mining tailings in the lower Sacramento Valley. The research team will link spatial and temporal patterns and processes of deposition in Sutter and Yolo Bypasses (leveed floodplains of the Central Valley) with erosion of piedmont tailings of the lower Bear, Yuba, and Feather Rivers downstream of the last major dam on each. It will track historical erosion of hydraulic mining sediments in the piedmont through a combination of photogrammetry, channel change analysis, and field surveys. The team will document history and provenance of mining sediment deposits in the Central Valley by granulometry, X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy, magnetism, and geochronology. In addition, records from a network of streamflow gauging stations will be perused for corroborative analysis of temporal correlation between piedmont erosion and Central Valley sedimentation. The project will produce quantitative, field-based estimates of volumetric sediment storage and erosion along piedmont channels and the timing of its evacuation. It will document geochemical, grain size, and magnetic properties of mining and non-mining sediment and develop appropriate mixing models for discerning the relative influence of each source downstream through the fluvial system. It will identify the spatial extent and volume of discrete sediment deposits in the bypass system, and document sedimentation rates and histories along various transects spanning Sutter and Yolo Bypasses. The research will develop quantitative links between piedmont erosion and bypass deposition that are based on historical hydrology and refined conceptual models of bypass sedimentation processes. It will provide the basis for predictive modeling of the impact of future floods on sediment movement through the Central Valley.

The project will provide a quantitative basis for future management decisions and direction in the Sacramento Valley and a set of methodologies that can be applied to other large, managed river basins. Data and interpretations from this study will be of great practical use to river and environmental management in the lower Sacramento Valley and the Delta, where our results are of utmost importance to flood conveyance, maintenance of islands, and potential toxicity of sediment. This research will create educational opportunities for a new generation of geomorphologists, including those from historically underrepresented groups. The output from this research will be made available as a project website via the World Wide Web and provide direct K-12 scientific outreach through the NASA space consortium, an educator resource center.
---------------

Christopher Sorlien 1/1/08-2/28/11 $62,050
National Science Foundation, 0739745(SCN03)

Seismic Stratigraphic Correlations Across Ross Sea for ROSSMAP: Paleoclimate and Tectonics

The proposed work will produce Ross Sea-wide stratigraphic correlations hence providing a framework for paleo-climate and tectonic events. These events include advances of ice sheets onto the shelf, subsidence below sea level and basin formation, and spatial and temporal evolution of extension in one of Earth’s largest rift systems.

Ross Sea occupies part of the West Antarctic Rift System, which experienced hundreds of kilometers of Cretaceous and younger extension, forming several deep sedimentary basins. It has recently been proposed that thick crust present before the start of major Cretaceous extension would require the future site of Ross Sea to have been at high elevation. There are ongoing debates about whether or not Cenozoic extension was also important to basin development, and whether or not this younger extension was confined to the west, or was Ross Sea-wide. A working hypothesis for this proposal is that greater Cretaceous stretching and initial subsidence occurred in eastern Ross Sea, with earlier cessation of extension there compared to the west. If correct, thermal subsidence has been ongoing for longest in the east, so marine deposition would occur first in the east and last in the west. Such a model implies that the “Holy Grail” of Antarctic paleoclimate research, a nearly complete early Cenozoic marine sedimentary section, may be present in a sedimentary basin in southeast Ross Sea.

There is still not agreement on timing of first grounded ice sheets in eastern Ross Sea, and frequency of such advances is not known. A spectacular succession of late Oligocene glacial troughs and moraines has been recently imaged in the southeast corner of Ross Sea. Late Oligocene through middle Miocene erosion surfaces, inferred to be cut by glaciers, are present around eastern Ross Sea. Certain of these erosion surfaces can be correlated to Deep Sea Drilling Program stratigraphic control. This proposed project will trace each possible Oligocene through middle Miocene erosion surface over distances of several hundred kilometers so that U-shaped troughs, flutes, and other products of erosion can be systematically correlated with each other, as well as with depositional geometry such as prograding strata within offlapping sequences (grounding line deltas), and reflective mounds interpreted as moraines. These features will be placed in a framework of existing and planned stratigraphic control.

Comprehensive seismic stratigraphic control will test both tectonic and ice sheet hypotheses. This proposal will allow a research geologist from the University of California, Santa Barbara group (UCSB), to participate in ROSSMAP. The UCSB group, together with collaborators at the University of North Carolina, have acquired and processed thousands of kilometers of multichannel seismic reflection data in areas where such data did not previously exist. These, and all other available seismic reflection data, will be interpreted using interactive industry software. Data and digital geographically-registered representations of sedimentary horizons, velocity models, and near seafloor geologic maps will be provided to the international community via ROSSMAP.
---------------

Christopher Sorlien 9/1/09-8/31/12 $49,999
National Science Foundation, 0929063(SCN04)

Collaborative Research: The North Anatolian Fault in the Marmara Sea, Turkey: The Growth of Continental Transform Basins

The 1500-km-long North Anatolian continental transform (NAF) accommodates westward motion of Anatolia relative to Asia at ~25 mm/yr. At its western end the NAF splinters into several strands with bends and jogs. These geometries and fault interactions are responsible for the extensional Marmara Sea trough, a composite Quaternary structure that includes three main basins with water depths >1200m, separated by submarine ridges. This boundary has been widely considered the type-transform for “pull-apart” structures, and the resulting Marmara basin is one of the best-studied transform basins in the world. Marmara is thus an ideal setting in which to address the following fundamental questions regarding transform basins: 1) What are the patterns of basin growth in space and time, and how do they relate to the deformation at depth? 2) Can the recent tectonic regime be extrapolated back to the onset of the sedimentary basins (i.e., steady-state tectonics), or have tectonics changed through time? 3) What are the geometries of major faults, and how is plate motion partitioned between them? 4) How are faults in Marmara influenced by pre-existing structures?

The recent international focus on the Marmara Sea has led to shallow, very high-resolution seismic surveys that map the surface and near-surface traces of faults and sediment failures as well as deep penetration, low-resolution multichannel seismic (MCS) surveys that image the deep basin and crustal structure. In July 2008, the proponents acquired >2700 km of high-resolution MCS reflection data throughout Marmara that fills the resolution gap between those datasets. The TAMAM (Turkish- American Marmara Multichannel) Project was funded by NSF in 2003, but was delayed by scheduling difficulties. In 2008, the proponents used the science budget to lease the R/V K. Piri Reis, operated by Dokuz Eylu?l University (DEU) in Izmir. Two additional days will be collected in Summer 2009. This dataset ties the faults at depth to their shallower structure where they interact with gravity-collapse and sedimentation patterns, and is thus ideal to resolve the pattern of growth in the basins. Processing and interpretation are ongoing together with our Turkish collaborators at DEU and Istanbul Technical University (ITU), within the constraints of our depleted science budget.

This research will continue analysis and interpretation of TAMAM and other datasets to reconstruct the tectonic evolution of Marmara in the last ~1 Ma and to address the questions above. More advanced processing and detailed stratigraphic and structural interpretations of existing seismic data will be undertaken to determine the times at which different fault systems were active, slip rates on major faults, and the stratigraphic response to tectonics and climate. These observations can be used to quantify slip partitioning and changes in tectonics through time. Initial inspection of the TAMAM data indicates that downslope motion and gas are common throughout the basin, and their distribution will be mapped in order to assess their importance in filling the basin and their response to tectonics. Pre-stack depth migration (PSDM) will also be applied to select profiles from the deep-penetration Seismarmara survey to obtain better estimates of fault geometry. Finally, isostatically-balanced kinematic reconstructions will be performed using the mapped sequences to test the predicted subsidence and sedimentation patterns arising from competing models for fault configuration at depth.
---------------

Christopher Sorlien 0201/11-01/31/12 $15,000
University of Southern California-SCEC-120044(SCP07)

SCEC3: Modeling Blind Fault Slip from Quaternary Growth of Palos Verdes Anticlinorium, Off Shore Long Beach

I have already provided a 3D representation to the SCEC CFM of the shallow part of two NE- dipping faults beneath San Pedro Escarpment and it southern continuation across a right step (Figs. 2, 3, 4, 5), although they are not yet part of CFM3.0. I recently started a Kingdom Suite (3D industry interpretation and imaging system) project that includes the Western Geophysical WC80 migrated seismic reflection data across San Pedro Shelf and the adjoining escarpment. These and other data are available in digital form at a USGS web site (http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/NAMSS/index.html). USGS high-resolution multichannel seismicreflection data will be added to this project (Sliter et al., 2005). The faults beneath the escarpment are not imaged below the water bottom multiple (~1 km) on either data set. In contrast, the Palos Verdes and Cabrillo faults are well-imaged to Catalina schist basement on the industry data.
Figure 4: This cross section across the complete Palos Verdes anticlinorium shows it to be a giant structure. This section is across the northwest plunge of the anticlinorium; relief of top Miocene would be 2 or 3 km greater on a section across Palos Verdes Hills and the deepest part of Los Angeles basin. An engineering study of an earthquake on the Puente Hills fault concluded as much as 1/4 trillion $ damage and as many as 18,000 fatalities (Field et al., 2005). Modeling of GPS data indicate 8 mm/yr of creep beneath downtown Los Angeles (Argus et al., 2005). The deeper thrust lies beneath a larger population than does the Puente Hills thrust.
At least two types of modeling will be done in order to infer fault dip below where imaged. The first involves interpreting structural relief from stratigraphic horizon mapping, and modeling slip direction and amount from know fault attitude, or modeling faults attitude for a known slip direction and range of slip magnitudes. Structural relief (SR) at any point along the fault can be computed from the geometry of the fault over the slip, assigned to be in the x-direction (Sorlien et al., in press).
(1) SR=?i1km*sin(?i)*tan(?i)
Where ? is the angle between the local slip vector and local fault strike, and ? is fault dip. The dip and strike of the fault and the structural relief of the ~4 Ma horizon was measured at each of 36 cross sections spaced at 1 km across the Santa Monica-Dume fault. The summation is carried out over the cumulative slip (Fig. 6). For the Palos Verdes fault, pure right-lateral slip can be inferred at the point where the fault transitions from transpression to trantension. A range of fault dips below top basement and a range of slip magnitudes can be modeled to match structural relief through offshore bends of the Palos Verdes fault. Preliminary mapping shows map-view bends in the San Pedro Escarpment fault system (Fig. 2). The imaged shallow fault attitude can be used to model slip direction and amount vs. structural relief. The deeper dip of the faults will be explored using Trishear (fault-fold) modeling.
---------------

Christopher Sorlien 02/01/07-01/31/12 $15,000
University of Southern California, 120044(SCP08)

SCEC3 Participation: Santa Monica Bay revisited: Digital representations for the Community Fault Model using newly-available industry seismic reflection data

Digital representations of faults will be completed but the stratigraphic effort to correlate offshore Quaternary reflections to onshore scientific core holes might be reduced. This work will complete interpretations and manuscripts related to past SCEC support, focusing on careful stratigraphic correlations to data from wells and sea floor outcrop, and then through multiple grids of digital and paper seismic reflection.
---------------

Frank Spera 10/01/04-09/30/10 $206,000
National Science Foundation- ATM-0425059(SFN09)

ITR(ASE)-(sim): Collaborative Project: Virtual Laboratory for Earth and Planetary Materials Studies

This project aims to enhance the development of a novel branch of computational materials science: the theory of earth and planetary materials. Its flourishing in the last decade was enabled by the maturing of computational condensed matter physics, the development of reliable and portable 'first principles' software for materials simulations, and powerful computer systems. Today it is possible to investigate realistically the physical and chemical properties of complex materials at conditions typical of planetary interiors that were unthinkable ten years ago. Only independent determination of these properties in these materials at the relevant conditions can provide a basis for 1) an interpretation of observational data in the context of likely planetary processes, 3) a basis for a discussion of their internal chemical and physical states, and 2) critical input for more sophisticated and reliable modeling of their interiors. This task is still exceedingly challenging to experiments but fundamental to advance our understanding of planets to new levels.

This project will reach across and assemble efforts from different disciplines in this inherently interdisciplinary research field. Most importantly, it will explore emerging computational technologies, such as computational stirring, grid computing, and visualization to bring state-of-the-art techniques from computational materials physics to new levels of performance. This is most needed to improve reliability and the level of complexity required in simulation of planetary materials. At UCSB PI FJ Spera will use large scale Molecular Dynamics codes in his possession to study the role H2O plays in molten silicates at elevated temperature and pressure. This work will be done in the Magma Rheology Lab at UCSB and at NERSC.
---------------

Frank Spera 7/1/08-6/30/12 $250,448
National Science Foundation, 0810127(SFN11)

Collaborative research: Testing models that describe the origin of compositional diversity of subduction zone magmatism, Aeolian Islands

Volcanic rocks integrate the records of crustal and mantle processes that govern the compositional diversity of magmas on Earth. At shallow-levels, recharge, crustal assimilation, and fractional crystallization (RAFC), as well as the temperature-pressure conditions of ascent, and composition(s) of surrounding crust dominate development of compositional diversity. In the mantle, particularly in subduction zones, melts acquire their characteristics from the intricate interplay of source composition (including slab- and sediment-derived fluids, sediments and their associated partial melts), intensive parameter constraints (e.g., P, T, fO2) and the style and extent of melting. Despite much study and hundreds of important contributions on these topics, challenges remain. Among these are quantification of RAFC and partial melting processes using geochemical computational tools now available that simultaneously address major and trace element, phase equilibria, and isotopic constraints, and the testing of quantitative predictions by exploiting advances in laboratory methods for textural and in situ chemical and isotopic analyses of crystals, glass and melt inclusions.

We propose to explore these challenges by studying subduction zone volcanism of the Aeolian Islands, Italy. We have two primary objectives: (1) For selected suites of volcanic rocks from Alicudi, Filicudi and Salina, test the efficacy of the Magma Chamber Simulator (which has combined the capabilities of MELTS and Energy-Constrained Recharge, Assimilation, Fractional Crystallization) for modeling the compositional evolution from basalt to dacite by generating quantitative models that reproduce published major and trace element and Sr isotope trends. Model results will provide predictions about the compositions and abundances of melt+minerals along open-system liquid lines of descent. With the framework provided by these models, we propose collection of selected suites of rocks followed by acquisition of new textural and in situ (major element by electron probe, trace element by laser ablation ICPMS, and microsampled Sr isotopes) data of crystals, glass and melt inclusions. These new data will be evaluated in context of MCS results to explore two fundamental questions: (a) Is the MCS an effective modeling tool for complex systems? (b) What can we learn about the structure and dynamics of magma bodies associated with these islands? (2) Develop thermal models of the subducted slab and mantle wedge and, in conjunction with phase equilibria constraints (Perple_X and pMELTS), constrain the range of intensive thermodynamic variables relevant to mantle wedge partial melting. Then, based on a Monte-Carlo approach, using pMELTS, we will forward model (1) the composition of wedge partial melts by varying source composition, pressure, fO2, H2O content and style of melting, and (2) using the compositions of these melts, explore compositional changes that occur as melts ascend polybarically and partially crystallize. Best results from this two-stage approach will inform trace element analysis, which will apply published mineral-melt-fluid partition coefficients to closed system melting and crystallization equations for fluid-saturated systems. Model data will be compared with major and trace element and phase equilibria data of the most mafic samples identified on Alicudi, Filicudi and Salina. The fundamental question being explored is what are the dominant controls on parental magma compositions in this subduction setting? Novel aspects of our proposed work include using innovative (but tested) computational models to simultaneously model major and trace element ± Sr isotopes variations in complex magmatic suites. Predictions about characteristics of components of volcanic rocks—crystals, glass, melt inclusions—are tested by taking advantage of recent innovations in textural and in situ data analysis. The end result of this marriage of state-of-the-art petrologic tools is testable models of how magmas form and evolve. If this approach is successful, it will impact how petrologists approach studying complex magmatic systems and will also provide a methodology by which source to surface compositional diversity can be understood by combining computational and analytical methods.
---------------

Jamison Steidl 10/01/06-06/30/12 $311,636
Carnegie-Mellon University-1120855-186144(SJ1P10)

NEESR-SG: High-Fidelity Site Characterization by Experimentation, Field Observation, and Inversion-Based Modeling

The availability of resources enabled by the George E. Brown, Jr. NEES sites, along with recently developed powerful inversion methods, and the increasing availability of earthquake records, will make it possible for the first time to reconstruct the three-dimensional material profile of local sites and complex basins alike. The problem of site and basin characterization is of great importance to hazard mitigation because knowledge of the in-situ material properties of soil deposits and deeper geological structure is essential for assessing earthquake ground motion; and forecasting this ground motion is an essential first step in designing earthquake resistant facilities and retrofitting existing structures. Thus, a proper knowledge of the geology and soil conditions at local and regional scales is a necessary precursor of the design process.

The main objective of the proposed research is to develop the capability for estimating the three-dimensional geological structure and mechanical properties of individual sites and complete basins, and to apply this capability to the nees@UCSB site at the Garner Valley Downhole Array (GVDA) and the entire Garner Valley. This high-resolution estimation will be based on integrating (a) in-situ dynamic excitation using NEES equipment primarily at the University of Texas at Austin (nees@UTexas) developed for advancing the state-of-the-art in in-situ dynamic material property characterization and field testing of soil deposits, (b) earthquake records from new strong-motion and broadband sensor networks, and (c) new inversion methods based on partial differential equations (PDE)-constrained optimization being developed under separate NSF grants. Our reasons for choosing these particular NEES sites are: (1) The equipment at the nees@UTexas site will allow us to apply loads at a wide range of frequencies and loading levels, which will enable us to examine the variability of the soil properties with these parameters. In addition to estimating shear-wave velocity and primary-wave velocity, we propose to include damping in our inversion model as a key soil property to be estimated simultaneously with the two velocities. Despite the critical influence that material attenuation in soils has on dynamic phenomena such as site amplification, damping remains, perhaps, the most poorly known dynamic mechanical soil property. (2) The GVDA is a test site located in a narrow valley in a highly seismic region in southern California, which is ideally suited for monitoring ground motion. The site consists of a set of seven downhole strong-motion instruments. The hundreds of small earthquakes that have been recorded at the site and at other, free surface, locations throughout this valley in the last 15 years make it an invaluable source of data for our regional deep structure inversions. To increase the fidelity of the inverted models, we propose to augment this dataset with data from instruments of the USArray component of EarthScope that we plan to deploy over periods of time that will overlap the periods of active testing. In-situ tests will provide data for characterizing the upper layers at the GVDA site and throughout the valley. Observations from these tests, both downhole and on the free surface, will be used as part of the data set for the inversion of our three-dimensional, high-resolution models, along with earthquake observations.
---------------

Jamison Steidl 10/1/09-9/30/12 $1,292,084
Purdue University, NEES-4101-31902(SJ1C06/07/08)

NEES Consortium Operations: 2004-2014.
Goal 1:
Maintain 99% or better data recovery of the continuous real-time streaming data from the remote field sites. Archive continuous data at IRIS data management center (DMC), and to magnetic tape media at UCSB and NEESit. Archive event data to online database at UCSB.
Goal 2:
Increase the number of users accessing data from the UCSB online event database and the IRIS DMC continuous database. Increase the amount of data being disseminated. Maintain usage statistics including number of users and amount of data accessed, and provide quarterly statistics.
Goal 3:
Provide researcher-training workshops via WebEx conference system twice per year. Workshops to include virtual tour of NEES@UCSB remote field site facilities and training on how to use the web-based data dissemination interface at UCSB. 75% of the participants would be satisfied with assessment questions related to the workshop content. 90% of the participants would increase their understanding of the facility and research potential.
Goal 4: Promote the NEES field site capabilities and research potential through presentation and/or demonstrations at 1-2 professional meetings per year.
Goal 5:
Maintain an accident and injury-free facility throughout the fiscal year.
---------------

Jamison Steidl 2/1/07-1/31/12 $135,000
Ralph Archuleta
University of Southern California, 120044(SJ1P12)

SCEC3 Participation: SCEC Borehole Instrumentation Center

The SCEC borehole instrumentation efforts for this final year include maintaining the existing borehole stations, continued collaboration between NEES and SCEC on the borehole data web-based dissemination portal, and working with the SCEC data center and CISN on data quality control.
---------------

Jamison Steidl 2/1/07-1/31/12 $135,000
University of Southern California, 120044(SJ1P12)

SCEC3 Participation: SCEC Borehole Instrumentation Program.

The borehole instrumentation project will continue the collaborative efforts between SCEC and other agencies to maintain the existing network of borehole stations in southern California and to facilitate an increase in the numbers of borehole sensors being recorded and integrated into CISN, and the SCEC data center. Borehole instrumentation is critical to improving our understanding of nonlinear effects and to developing methodologies to include these effects into ground motion simulations (Priority B4). In addition, the new borehole data recently made available online from the SCEC/PBO collaborative stations in the Anza region are providing a unique new high-resolution data set for analysis of earthquake source parameters (Priority A4), as well as provide the potential to observe anomalous signals such as non-volcanic tremor events in the region. The SCEC borehole program continues to be highly leveraged, taking advantage of the resources of other programs and agencies that are active in monitoring southern California earthquake activity. The primary collaboration for 2009 will be the SCEC/EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory borehole installations and the NEES program. We plan to take advantage of (and continue) the software development that took place over the last year with Gregor Hillers as ICS post-doctoral researcher. The software includes the routine processing of waveforms to provide signal to noise quality, the calculation of spectra, and the determination of spectral source parameters from the borehole data. As has been the case for many years, joint monitoring efforts will continue between SCEC and the US Geological Survey and Caltech through ANSS, NSMP, and CISN, and the California Geological Survey to maintain the existing network of borehole stations. Other collaborators include the NSF funded NEES and HPWREN programs. In addition to the ongoing data gathering efforts, analysis of the observed borehole data continues, though not funded through this project.
---------------

Jamison Steidl 2/1/08-1/31/12 $135,000
University of Southern California, 120044(SJ1P11)

SCEC3 Participation: SCEC Borehole Instrumentation Center

This project will continue to support smaller individual PI driven experiments as needed, including assistance with the post-processing of data from the ShakeOut project. Since real-time communications were not originally part of the IRIS/PASSCAL RAMP equipment, only 5 of the 10 stations that were deployed have cellular telemetry. All 10 of these stations also operated in stand alone mode for the first month after they were deployed, and this data will need to be processed in batch mode after recovery of the flash cards. In terms of other 2009 projects, requests for PBIC equipment availability have been made to the PBIC by other investigators in response to this RFP and support of these projects would also be part of the 2009 activities should they be funded. As usual, 2009 PBIC activities will include the maintenance of all the systems that are now included in the PBIC online inventory of equipment including the SCEC and long-term loan IRIS/PASSCAL equipment. Maintaining a pool of working stations for rapid deployment in the event of a significant earthquake in California remains the first priority of the PBIC. Two undergraduate geology and one geophysics major currently work in the PBIC lab assisting with maintaining the equipment. We now maintain at least 10 stations in the lab, under power and in acquisition mode on a 24/7 basis, as this seems to be the best way to ensure that the equipment is functioning when needed, and to catch hardware failures in the older systems. The students monitor this equipment in the lab, and swap systems in and out of operations to help determine which systems are the most reliable. The students are also involved in lab testing of a new data recording solution, discussed below. In the past year we have been developing a compact flash solution for field data recording on the older RefTek 72A systems. One of the primary failure modes in any field deployment is related to the older SCSI drives, either due to the drive overheating, drawing more power than the solar array can provide, or just a general failure due to age of these old 1-4 Gb SCSI drives. We have developed a SCSI to PCMCIA-compact flash solution that has now been tested in the lab at UCSB and works well. The advantage to this solution is the very low power requirements, and the wide range of temperature specs on this equipment. Currently we have three such devices in various stages of completion. In 2009 we plan to complete the three units we have, field test this solution, and potentially add a few more of these to the inventory.
---------------

Lisa Stratton 05/02/11-09/30/12 $175,000
California Coastal Conservancy, 10-037(SLW02)

Campus Lagoon Accessway

This project funds construction of an accessway, including an elevated stairway and a blufftop trail, over an eroding bluff and restoration of the adjacent degraded bluff slope near the Campus Lagoon on the southeast corner of the UCSB campus. The elevated stairway shall allow people to safely traverse the bluff and shall be designed to blend into and eliminate human pressure on the adjacent fragile environment.
---------------

Lisa Stratton 6/16/10-12/31/11 $32,000
Goleta Valley Land Trust(SLP01)

Restoration of Bluff Edge at West Campus Bluffs

West Campus Bluffs is 37 acres of protected coastal bluffs and open space between the west end of Isla Vista and Coal Oil Point Reserve. The site is heavily used by students and members of the community for coastal access, biking, running, bird watching, painting, and numerous other forms of recreation. With funding from the Coastal Conservancy, UCSB recently replaced the entire trail from Isla Vista to Coal Oil Point Reserve with a new 8 foot wide decomposed granite trail that is intended to reduce the amount of off-trail use and associated impacts. The new trail has been highly effective at concentrating traffic, and will greatly reduce the amount of disturbance to nearby native grassland, coastal shrub, and wetland habitats. With additional grant funding from the Goleta Valley Land Trust and the Associated Students Coastal Fund, CCBER has been able to restore native vegetation along the trail and bluff edges at West Campus.
---------------

Lisa Stratton 11/5/10-10/1/11 $24,000
Southern California Wetlands Recovery Project(SLW01)

UCSB San Nicolas Wetland Enhancement

The goals of the San Nicolas Wetland Enhancement project are to restore a degraded slope, create a freshwater filtration marsh, enhance the wetland function and restore native plant communities to approximately 1.5 acres of area adjacent to the campus lagoon, while retaining and enhancing the hydrology of the site. The enhancements effectively offset impacts of a UCSB facilities project that included the installation of a 48-inch storm drain and outfall structure in the area. This project has showcased how an initial investment by the campus and collaboration with land managers can lead to projects that provide significant benefits in terms of habitat value, water quality and aesthetics. It has been well-received by the campus community, won the Higher Education Sustainability Award for Water Quality, and serves as model for future projects in similar areas.

---------------

Rebecca Streit 02/01/11-06/30/11 $780

University of California- Santa Barbara (CS003)

NSF Fellowship via Graduate Division

This research explores the effect of potential feedbacks between climate, sedimentation, and tectonics on outward growth of the Puna-Altiplano Plateau. For example, what is the primary driver of episodes of sediment accumulation in the intermontane basins on the plateau margin: climate or tectonics? Conversely, how does plateau growth respond to changes in the lithostatic load due to basin filling and emptying? It has been proposed that sediment accumulation in intermontane basins promotes the outward propagation of thrust faulting into the foreland, and that removal of large volumes of sediment causes the location of deformation to step back into the hinterland. In order to test this hypothesis, we are reconstructing the Neogene history of basin filling and emptying, thrust faulting, and range growth in the Quebrada de Humahuaca and Casa Grande basin in northwestern Argentina. This involves mapping the Neogene-Quaternary stratigraphy and structures (paying close attention to cross-cutting relationships), measuring and describing stratigraphic sections (including style of deposition, clast composition, and paleoflow direction), detrital zircon analyses, (U-Th)/He thermochronology to constrain the timing of uplift of the bounding ranges, and U-Pb dating of the numerous ashes found within the Neogene sediments to provide the temporal framework for the study.

---------------

Sangwon Suh 1/3/11-1/2/12 $112,000
Exxon Mobile Corporation(SS2P01)

Incorporating Water Quality and Quantity in Water-Use Impact Assessment Modeling for Life Cycle Assessment: With Case Studies of Coal and Natural Gas-powered Electricity Generation

Water quality issue has been traditionally handled in other impact categories such as human health and ecosystem health in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). Therefore, we will explore how water quality issue can be incorporated into mid-point approach and then integrated into water quantity issue after weighting. In parallel, we will explore the possibilities of combining water quality and water quantity issues into ecologically degraded area following end-point approach.

An example of a simplified classification of water use categories can be drawn from looking at a nuclear power plant, as it withdraws water from a stream and part of the water withdrawn will be evaporated to the atmosphere and will not immediately come back to the same source of water, and the rest will come back to the water stream with certain quality alteration. The consumptive use portion of water withdrawn will not be available to the neighboring ecosystem, and therefore it adversely affects the production of water-constrained NPP of the area. This impact can be modeled using the framework developed by Pfister et al. (2009). However, the framework
by Pfister et al. (2009) is not adequate for addressing the impacts associated with degradative use portion of the withdrawal. In order to quantify the impact of degradative use of water, we propose the following two approaches.

A. Mid-point approach
Use of acute toxicity data such as lethal concentration 50 (LC50) or chronic toxicity data such as no observed effect concentration (NOEC) is widely adopted to mid-point approaches for quantifying ecosystem health impacts (Guinée et al., 2002; Wenzel et al., 1997; Wenzel and Hauschild, 1997). In these approaches the impact of various human interventions to ecosystem health is quantified using either the concentration of a pollutant that harms 50% of the total population of a certain species or the maximum level of intervention without observed effect. The impact of water quality alteration can be translated into relevant mid-point characterization factors following the same reasoning. For instance, it has long been known that certain larvae are highly sensitive to alteration of water temperature by power plants (see e.g., Hall, 1979). In this case, temperature-response curve provides similar data required to calculate characterization factors for ecosystem health impacts. Once degradative water use is quantified using mid-point approach, the result can be integrated with consumptive water use results by using normalization and weighting procedure (ISO 2006; Guinée et al., 2002).

B. End-point approach
Another option is to translate the damage on higher trophic level into NPP and use the ecologically degraded area following Pfister et al. (2009). Energy captured by NPP is partly transferred to the species in higher trophic level along the food-chain, and the rest is dissipated through respiration and decay. Therefore, in principle, the amount of energy held by certain species can be translated into NPP using energy balance approach (Suh, 2005). Under this framework, damages to the species in higher trophic level will have larger “NPP equivalency” as more energy is lost along the food web as it propagates.

We will develop the framework using each of the two approaches. The two approaches will be compared using case studies on coal- and natural gas-powered electricity generation process. The case study will be based on life-cycle impact considering all direct and supply-chain water uses impacts.
---------------

Samuel Sweet 06/10/09-fixed price $29,914
Department of the Air Force- FA4610-09-P-0102(SSA03)

California Tiger Salamander Survey

This project will provide an updated inventory of California tiger salamanders (Ambystoma californiense). California tiger salamanders are known to occur off of VAFB along Hwy 246 and near Casmalia (Sweet pers comm.) Surveys for CTS on VAFB in 2001 and 2003 were inconclusive because of the dry weather during the survey years. During dry years, CTS may not emerge and breed in pools.

In 2008, the habitat capability of pools for CTS were assessed by a member of the Recovery Team, Professor Samuel Sweet of the University of California, Santa Barbara. Sweet assessed the pools based on ecological requirements of the species. For pools to be suitable, they must remain wet for a prolonged period, long enough to develop a prey base for the larval CTS. For pools to be occupied, they need to have surrounding habitat through which salamanders can disperse. The probability of occupancy increases in pools within 2 miles of occupied habitat off base. Suitable dispersal habitat needed microenvironments which were cool or shaded with gradual slopes down to the pools. The surrounding area of the pools needed friable soils or burrows which could shelter adult CTS during the nonbreeding season or years.

In 2008, hoop-net and seine net samples of pools were conducted after pools had been inundated for about a month. No CTS were observed by these methods although samples were only taken once at each pool. The pools with suitable dispersal habitat had drift nets and pittraps installed; the drift nets will channel approaching CTS towards the pit traps. These traps were installed during the dry season and kept closed. Coverboards were also placed in areas with suitable dispersal and breeding habitat. Locations of coverboards and pools with driftnets were noted on GIS.

Also, in 2008, surveys near VAFB noted whether the introduced barred salamander were present. Barred salamanders were noted in many areas, including the penitentiary pond and near Rucker Road next to La Purisima Mission. The close proximity of the barred salamanders highlights the conservation concerns for CTS. Barred salamanders may also be present on VAFB.
---------------

Samuel Sweet 9/10/10-12/31/11 $45,644
US Department of Agriculture(SSP01)

Conservation status of California Amphibians and Reptiles

The Pacific Southwest Region of the US Forest Service (encompassing all Forest Service lands in California) maintains lists of Forest Sensitive Species. This designation is separate from listings under the federal Endangered Species Act, and also from lists of fully protected species established by the California Department of Fish and Game. The USFS evaluation is tailored to identify species of conservation concern that may be affected by policy and management decisions on Forest lands, to ensure that USFS actions do not negatively affect their conservation status. The USFS is issuing a contract to Prof. Sam Sweet, EEM Biology, UCSB, to conduct a thorough review of amphibian and reptile species native to California which are now listed as Forest Sensitive Species, or have been proposed for such consideration, and to recommend changes to the existing list based on the best scientific evidence available. This involves integrating several types of information: (a) bringing the existing list (which was composed piecemeal over 2-3 decades) up to the current level of detail based on published research findings in taxonomy and molecular phylogeography; (b) assessing newer distributional and ecological research to determine the degree to which each species has a significant presence on Forest lands; and (c) identifying specific activities (and locations) statewide where land-use decisions and the ecology of candidate species may come into conflict. USFS has identified 66 species (41 amphibians, 25 reptiles) of which 30 (20, 10) are now listed as Forest Sensitive. A number of these are partitioned into geographic subspecies that may merit independent evaluations. The goal is to produce a revised listing proposal that is internally consistent and scientifically defensible. Formal and specific details of the project are appended to this general preface. Prof. Sweet has 40 years of field experience with the ecology and distribution of amphibian and reptile species throughout California, and this scope was recognized by USFS in approaching him to conduct this review as a joint venture agreement between the agency and the University.
---------------

Christina Tague 1/1/10-6/30/12 $72,115
Kearney Foundation, 2009.030(TCP05)

Optimized Soil Moisture Sampling Design to Represent the Impact of Annual Climate Variability on Dominant Ecohydrological Orecesses in Snow-Dominated Watersheds.

Snow dominated mountain ecosystems are particularly sensitive to changes in climate (Barnett et al., 2005, Krajick, K. 2004). Warmer temperatures lead to earlier snowmelt and a transition from snow to rain dominated water inputs. Empirical and model-based studies have shown that, for the Western US, these changes are likely to lead to significant changes in the seasonal timing of streamflow (). Changes in the timing of water inputs will also alter seasonal soil wetting-drying patterns and soil-vegetation biogeochemical cycling processes that depend on moisture conditions. How ecosystems will respond to these climate driven changes in mountain environment remains a key question in climate change research (Diaz and Miller, 2004; CCSP, 2003, Bales et al., 2006). The goal of this project is to characterize soil moisture and coupled ecosystem responses to climate-driven changes in timing of water inputs for a watershed located at the sensitive rain-snow transition zone within the California Sierra. One of the key challenges in any investigation of soil moisture driven processes is accounting for spatial heterogeneity at multiple scales. Soil moisture is highly spatially variable () and controls on this variation shift with spatial and temporal scale and extent (). In snow-melt driven watersheds, soil hydraulic properties may dominate at very fine scales; while spatial variation in snow accumulation and melt, vegetation cover, radiation and micro-meteorology play a varying roles at increasingly coarser scales (). Soil moisture sampling directed at understanding how the system responds to climate variation must take into account these multiple controls. In this project, we develop a strategic soil moisture (and vegetation water flux) sampling strategy that is explicitly designed to capture spatial heterogeneity that is likely to be important in characterizing system responses to inter-annual climate variability. We use an integrated field-sampling-hydrologic modeling approach to maximize the utility of measurements and then use results in an assessment of how changes in snow accumulation and melt will alter soil moisture and its control on vegetation water use. Our research site, King River Experiment Watershed (KREW) has recently been established as a Critical Zone Observatory. This project leverages an extensive set of ongoing field measurements at this site and links this work with other research initiatives, including several focused on soil biogeochemical cycling.

One of the key contributions of this project will be the development and application of a strategic soil moisture and sap flux sampling design based on a physical-based spatially distributed ecohydrologic model and associated statistical analysis to represent the impact of annual climate variability on dominant ecohydrologic processes. We will use this approach to calibrate and validate the model to reproduce soil moisture and sap flux spatial patterns as well as streamflow, thus maximuizing the use of information in available monitoring data. The validated model will be then be used to generate the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), soil moisture and transpiration under historic and projected future inter-annual climate variation.
---------------

Christina Tague 07/01/11-06/30/12 $41,765
Oregon State University, S1343H-A(TCP10)

Ecohydrological Component of Willamette Water 2100 Project.

Watershed scale paired-catchment experiments have clearly demonstrated that the relationship between vegetation and streamflow varies strongly with geographic and climatic settings. Process-based modeling provides a non-destructive method to generalize results from site specific field studies to a broad range of scenarios characterized by climate, geomorphology, species type and disturbance regimes within a given region. This proposed work explores these interactions through a series of five questions designed such that the knowledge gained from one step informs the next. Broadly, this work focuses on how streamflow is influenced in a forested, temperate watershed with particular attention to growth/regeneration processes and climate. Specifically, the questions emphasize abiotic, biotic and disturbance themes:
1. Abiotic: How does the timing of water inputs (snowmelt, rain v. snow partitioning) change forest AET/PET? How do soil storage and vegetation characteristics influence this relationship between timing and AET/PET?
2. Biotic: How does a dynamic carbon allocation cycling strategy (fixed ratio, age-based, resource-based) in conifers influence the streamflow response under current climate conditions? And with warmer temperatures?
3. Disturbance: a.Spatial: How does streamflow respond to a change in forest species at variable spatial extents—i.e., entire watershed versus the riparian zone?
b.Temporal: How does the trajectory of post-fire recovery of biomass and associated hydrologic response vary with inter-annual climate variability? Does this relationship change under a warmer climate?
4. What climate conditions would push Doug Fir to widespread mortality in the Cascades?

We initially approach these questions using Lookout Creek as our study site. Lookout Creek is a 64 sq-km watershed within the McKenzie River basin. Elevation ranges within the watershed frequently include the rain-snow transition zone, thus it is likely to be highly sensitive to climate warming. We address our research questions using RHESSys, a coupled ecohydrological model designed to represent feedbacks between hydrologic and vegetation carbon cycling processes (http://fiesta.bren.ucsb.edu/~rhessys/). This project builds on an existing implementation or RHESSys for Lookout Creek. Vegetation in the basin will be represented by a single canopy layer composed of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), Western Hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla), and Red alder (Alnus rubra). Topography (and finest spatial resolution) will be represented with a 30-m digital elevation model (DEM) (available through the HJA data portal http://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/data/) and soil depth map (developed by Vache and McDonnell). Historical climate recorded at CS2Met will be used as baseline temperature and precipitation inputs at a daily time scale with PRISM data sets used for spatial scaling of temperature and precipitation. Model performance will be evaluated using daily streamflow records and published estimates of aboveground net primary productivity1,2,3. Additionally, model estimates of canopy height will be checked against a recently completed LIDAR survey and sapflow data of stands of different age in W1 will be used to check calculated transpiration.
After we have gained a process-based understanding of key linkages between vegetation change and streamflow at the Lookout Creek scale, we will use the model to explore scenarios at a larger spatial scale, the 2409 sq-km basin of McKenzie River at Vida. The future scenarios will be developed in conjunction with other researchers in the WW2100 project and will include changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation) and shifts in species types and ranges.
We anticipate that each of the research questions (1-4 above) will lead to a paper to be published in a peer reviewed journal as well as the basis for presentations at professional conferences. Elizabeth Garcia would be the UCSB PhD student funded through this project.
---------------

Christina Tague 6/8/09-9/30/11 $146,458
University of California, 73720-00-09(TCP03)

Water Security and Climate Change

Climate is changing due to fossil fuel use and other human activities, resulting in an observed increase of 1ºC in globally-averaged surface temperature and a predicted additional 2-4ºC over the next 100 years. While climate change is a global phenomenon, climate change impacts will be region specific. In Southwest US, climate change is predicted to lead to increases in droughts, increases in heat waves and decreases in snowpack. These changes are expected to have profound consequences on water management practices in the Southwest. We propose to develop a method of assessing the vulnerability of water supply at the scale of a municipal watershed with the expectation that our results will be immediately useful to both the scientific community and water managers. Our approach will address several key scientific challenges that arise in assessing climate change impacts at local watershed scales. Specifically we will explicitly consider coupled eco-hydrologic responses to climate change, including the impact of drought on vegetation water use through plant physiologic responses and indirectly through fire and disease. We will also assess different approaches for downscaling climate model scenarios to local watershed scales and quantify the sensitivity of model predictions to downscaling approaches. Our goal is to quantify likely changes to seasonal and annual water yields under climate change scenarios and explore how these projections may be altered by vegetation responses and land management practices designed to reduce ecosystem vulnerability to climate drivers and associated disturbances.
---------------

Christina Tague 4/1/10-9/30/11 $100,000
University of California, 500-09-025-UCSB(TCP06)

Continued Climate Observations and Analyses.

In mountain environments, spatial and temporal patterns of snow accumulation and melt are dominant controls on hydrologic responses to climate change. Within the Western US, spatial differences in subsurface drainage rates (groundwater recharge) can exacerbate summer streamflow losses associated with diminishing snowpacks due to climate change. So far in California, the PIER program has funded the use of a macro-scale hydrological model (Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model) to study how climate change may impact water resources. More detailed, process-based distributed hydrologic models may produce different hydrological responses to climate change, especially with their more detailed representation of groundwater recharge.

The goal of this subtask is to explore the uncertainty in regional hydrologic projections under climate change by comparing the results of a distributed hydrological model known as the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSYS) with the VIC model using the same conditions.
---------------

Christina Tague 9/1/07-8/31/12 $327,599
University of California, Merced, EAR 0725097(TCP01)

The California Critical Zone Observatory

The goal of the proposed California Critical Zone Observatory is to develop data sets and an interdisciplinary research program to provide a process-level understanding of critical zone dynamics in the Sierra Nevada. The Observatory will link intensive field measurement with modeling to improve understanding of hydrology, biogeochemical cycling and vegetation dynamics in the critical zone and the sensitivity of these interactions to climate and land cover disturbances. My involvement in the California CZO, will focus on the use of modeling to integrate and scale field measurements and address questions about whole watershed behavior under different climate and land cover scenarios. I will apply RHESSys (Regional hydro-ecologic system) to the four nested catchments within the Kings River field site (primary Observatory field site). Existing datasets will be used for preliminary model simulations that can be used to guide the locating of intensive instrumentation. I will then work closely with other Co-PIs to integrate field measurements of critical zone hydrologic function, vegetation dynamics and biogeochemical cycling into the RHESSys modeling framework – both through improved parameterization and revisions to sub-models as needed.
---------------

Christina Tague 9/1/10-8/31/12 $17,515
University of North Carolina, Charlotte, 20100588-01-UCS(TCP08)

Influence of Stormwater Management Structures on Ecological Function in Urban Streams.

Tague will contribute to the implementation, evaluation and testing of the RHESSys model as part of this project. She will also contribute to analysis of model scenario results and resulting publications. As principle developer of RHESSys, Tague will be responsible for any modifications to the model if needed, and in particular will work with University of Carolina team to appropriately include BMP functionality within the RHESSys landscape patch framework. Tague will help to supervise the graduate student who will apply RHESSys to the study site. Tague will also supervise a research technician at University of California, Santa Barbara who will provide training on RHESSys set up and use for the University of Carolina team.
---------------

Christina Tague 12/09/08-09/30/11 $52,669
USDA Forest Service-PNW 08-JV-11261952 (TCP02)

Interactions Among Climate Change, Hydrology, and Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems.

Spatially distributed modeling of both vegetation and hydrology at watershed to landscape scales have matured dramatically over the past decade. Such models offer a sound basis for predicting and testing how changing climate is likely to impact water resources and forest ecosystems. In particular, the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys) is one of the most sophisticated models coupling hydrology, vegetation dynamics, and nutrient and carbon cycling in response to both climate and land use drivers. Our previous work with RHESSys has allowed us to make significant progress in characterizing how summer streamflow from landscapes underlain by geologies differing in their hydrologic “plumbing systems”, specifically the degree to which subsurface flow is dominated by deep or shallow groundwater systems, vary in response to climate change. We now propose to extend this work by using RHESSys to explore whether vegetation changes, including those in response to changing fire regimes, exert an equally important control on summer streamflow. We will focus on catchments in the Cascade Range of Oregon for which we have already calibrated RHESSys, thereby expediting the work, and will incorporate recent findings from the Wind River Canopy Crane and H.J. Andrews Forest to parameterize evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture and sapflow components of the model. Results from this effort will examine how warmer climate and earlier snowmelt will affect late summer streamflow, either by changing ET or through direct vegetation change (i.e., replacement of conifers by riparian alders following disturbance).
---------------

Christina Tague 5/15/10-6/30/12 $156,240
US Geological Survey, G10AC00309(TCP07)

The Western Mountain Initiative: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Western Mountain Ecosystems.

Climate warming is affecting Western mountain ecosystems, directly through changes in water dynamics and indirectly through altered disturbance regimes. The Western Mountain Initiative (WMI; http://www.cfr.washington.edu/research.fme/wmi) team explores the effects of climate change on ecological disturbance, responses of forest vegetation, mountain hydrology, and the coupled hydro-ecological responses that determine vulnerability of Western mountain ecosystems to change. Extensive data sets, empirical studies, surveys, and monitoring programs are linked via models to hindcast and forecast the effects of changing climate on forest dynamics, distribution, and productivity; fire occurrence and insect outbreaks; recovery of vegetation after disturbance; hydrologic changes and glacier dynamics; and the consequences of an altered water cycle for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and chemistry. We will address the extent to which climate drivers are mediated by regional- or watershed-scale controls on ecosystem processes, thus quantifying vulnerability to climate change in mountain ecosystems. Region-specific results and emergent West-wide patterns will be shared with resource managers through workshops and a comprehensive web-based toolkit on climate-change science and adaptation management. WMI seeks to understand climate-ecosystem interactions, forecast ecological change, and provide adaptation information for managers. We build on the foundation of our ongoing research program, which includes hundreds of publications, long-term datasets, and a mature network of collaborators. WMI addresses Ecosystem and Climate Change goals of the USGS Global Change Science Strategy, and Goals 4 and 5 of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan. Both the National Park Service and US Forest Service are developing science-based management approaches for adapting to climate change, and WMI will collaborate directly with both agencies to ensure scientific consistency in the implementation of adaptation strategies.

In the preceding phase of WMI research, we used RHESSys to model ecosystem processes and hydrology in five forested montane watersheds representing diverse conditions across the western U.S. (sites in MT, CO, NM, CA, WA) (Christensen et al. 2008). In addition, ongoing RHESSys applications as part of other projects include a range of watersheds throughout the West (Tague et al. 2008; Tague et al. in review). Analysis at the scale of these sites (<800 km2) is critical given that management of resources takes place at small watershed scales where process-based interactions are determined by gradients in snow, temperature, and radiation; spatial distribution of moisture; vegetation structure and pattern; and disturbances (fire, insects, mass movements). This abundant RHESSys model output is ready to be carried to the next level of interpretation. Tague role in the WMI project will be to continue the refinement and application of RHESSys, as a coupled eco-hydrologic model for use in hypothesis generation and scenario development.
---------------

Christina Tague 4/1/11-3/31/16 $403,484
Washington State University (Pullman, WA), 115320 G002931(TCP09)

Collaborative Research: Type 2: Understanding Biogeochemical Cycling in the Context of Climate Variability Using a Regional Earth System Modeling Framework.

One of the greatest science & engineering challenges of the 21st Century is managing nitrogen (N) in the environment to maximize agricultural productivity while minimizing negative environmental effects. Developing a clear understanding of climate & human-induced changes in environmental N cycling in tightly coupled atmospheric, terrestrial, & aquatic systems & understanding how these changes feed back into the climate system are critical to addressing this challenge. In the Pacific Northwest (PNW), the interactions among N, carbon (C), climate & human activities are complex. The region has extensive & diverse agricultural lands surrounded by pristine natural ecosystems, interspersed with heavily populated urban areas. The topography of the area is diverse, & the terrain is drained by extensive river systems, including the vast Columbia River Basin (CRB). Storm patterns are closely tied to the jet stream position & sensitive to long-term circulation patterns including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) & Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO). Given this complexity, a challenge is to understand & quantify the interactions & feedbacks between N & C cycling in coupled atmospheric, terrestrial, & aquatic systems as they are affected by the climate system at inter-annual to decadal time-scales over the PNW region. The overarching goal of this project is to improve understanding of the interactions among C, N, & H2O at the regional scale in the context of global change to inform decision makers’ strategies regarding natural & agricultural resource management. The approach will create a regional modeling framework by integrating and/or linking a network of state-of-the-art process-based models that are currently in existence & that are undergoing continuous development & evaluation, & to do so in collaboration with stakeholders. The Bio-EASM framework includes: WRF for meteorology, CMAQ for atmospheric chemistry & transport, VIC for hydrology, CropSyst for agricultural dynamics, RHESSys for natural ecosystem dynamics, NEWS for aquatic nutrient transport & CREM for economic interactions. Subcontract PI is the principle developer of RHESSys. The subcontract allows PI expertise to integrate RHESSys within the EASM framework & contribute to application of the integrated modeling framework to improving understanding of environmental change. With this framework, UCSB will be involved in integration process: simulations in a series of steps with increasing model integration & coupling to address questions related to 1) how climate variability affects regional biogeochemical cycling with specific focus on N & C, 2) how do regional N & C cycles feed back to climate in terms of greenhouse gas fluxes in the context of landuse change & inter-annual variability, & 3) how do land use & agricultural production decisions affect the interactions of N, C & climate & how do these interactions interplay with economic drivers. PI will supervise a post-doctoral scholar who will work on the RHESSys evaluation for a series of focus study sites, & RHESSys integration into Bio-EAsSM. Evaluation of RHESSys will include set-up, calibration & sensitivity analysis of RHESSys carbon, nitrogen & hydrologic estimates at the focus study sites with particular emphasis on evaluation the nitrogen cycling component. UCSB will undertake any necessary refinements to RHESSys based on retrospective, site-specific analysis. PI will work with other PIs to decide on appropriate data sets for retrospective, & N-deposition & climate change scenarios for stand-alone RHESSys modeling, and will work with other PIs to develop papers on these off-line RHESSys model applications. PI will work with the other Bio-EaSM modelers to embed RHESSys within VIC & contribute to analysis of coupled modeled results; & will work with the Bio_EaSM team in the design & application of the fully coupled model & participate in developing papers, presentations & outreach.
---------------

Toshiro Tanimoto 2/1/07-1/31/12 $45,000
University of Southern California, 120044(TTP09)

SCEC3: Constraining the Evolving Architecture of the Plate Boundary Zone Through 3D Seismic Velocity and Anisotropy Mapping

Our efforts in 2008 clarified some of the points we need to focus in order to understand the discrepancy between surface wave anisotropy and SKS splitting data. Specific tasks are:

§   Re-examination of SKS data: While our surface wave model shows strong anisotropy close to the major faults, there is no such reports on SKS data so far. We have examined SKS data in Southern California in 2008 but we need to extend the region toward north in order to conclusively determine the change in anisotropic pattern.
§   Re-examination of long-period surface wave data: It seems almost certain that deeper anisotropic layer is required to explain the two types of data simultaneously. However, our current Rayleigh-wave data do not contain long period (> 100 sec) information and thus it would be hard to examine internal consistency between SKS data and Rayleigh wave data. We will re-examine long-period (>100 sec) surface wave data and expand the frequency range of the data set.
§   Develop finite-frequency approach for SKS splitting data and perform joint inversion: As both SKS data and surface wave data are long period and differ in their lateral wavelengths, it is important to take into account finite-frequency effects. We intend to reformulate both approaches and invert the data.
§   Anisotropy and S velocities in the SCEC_CLM and SCEC_CVM: Our data on S velocities and anisotropy will be input to the California Lithosphere model. In addition we will include data from the Sierra Nevada Earthscope Project (SNEP), which is adding significantly to the SKS determinations. We will also input results to the higher resolution, but more localized SCEC_CVM.
---------------

Toshiro Tanimoto 2/1/07-1/31/12 $60,000
University of Southern California, 120044(TTP10)

SCEC3 Participation: Using Seismic noise for the purpose of improving shallow S-wave velocity models

Our goal is to improve shallow S-wave velocity structure using seismic noise recorded by California Integrated Seismic Network. Our specific tasks in 2009 are:

(1)   Re-examination of phase velocity data from noise cross-correlation: Rayleigh-wave phase velocities have been re-derived from cross-correlation of about 6000 paths in Southern California. They provide constraints on S-wave velocity structure from surface to about 20 km in depth.
(2)   Joint inversion of Rayleigh-wave phase velocity data from noise correlation and the Z/H data: Derive of shallow S-wave velocity results (depth 0-10 km) by the joint inversion of phase velocity and the ZH ratio of Rayleigh waves, derived from seismic noise. Rayleigh wave data constrain the upper 20 km while the Z/H data constrain the upper 5-10 km.
Contribution to CVM: We will then communicate the results to the Harvard group for updating CVM.
---------------

Toshiro Tanimoto 2/1/07-1/31/12 $15,000
University of Southern California 120044 (TTP11)

SCEC3: Using Seismic noise for the purpose of improving shallow S-wave velocity models

Our goal is to improve shallow S-wave velocity structure in the upper 10 km of the urban area of the greater Los Angeles region, using seismic noise recorded by California Integrated Seismic Network. Our specific tasks in 2011 will be:
(1) Apply our method to the most recent CVM-H model: The method has been applied to CVM-H6.2. During our study, the CVM-H model was revised again. In this final year, the method will be applied to the most recent CVM-H model.
(2) Contribution to CVM and Publication: We will then communicate the results to the Harvard group for updating CVM and the results will be written up for publication.

---------------
Jennifer Thorsch 3/28/11-12/31/11 $7,800

Coastal Fund - UCSB Associated Students WIN 11-11 (TJS02)

CCBER Kids in Nature Peer-to-Peer Environmental Education Program

With funding from The Coastal Fund, CCBER has continued our Kids in Nature program (KIN) that trains UCSB undergraduate students to provide hands-on place-based environmental education. We trained 12 UCSB undergraduate students to serve as KIN docents spring quarter 2011 and 4 during fall quarter 2011. The KIN docents serve as mentors for the UCSB students who are taking the course for credit and as role models for over 100 local 5th grade students from Franklin and Adelante Schools.

---------------

Jennifer Thorsch 3/28/11-12/31/11 $1,000

Coastal Fund - UCSB Associated Students SPR11-14 (TJS03)

CCBER Raptor Watch: Birds of Prey on the UCSB Campus

Along with the CCBER Native Plant book and the Native Algae book, this identification guide will add to CCBER’s growing body of local field guides with a focus on the birds of prey that can be found on the ecologically-important habitats of the UCSB campus. These guides will feature full-color photos for roughly 13 species, spanning both immature and mature life stages, all accompanied by concise descriptions to aid with quick identification when in the field. They will be available for purchase at UCSB and throughout the community.

---------------

Jennifer Thorsch 09/01/09-08/31/12 $272,162
Carla D’Antonio
National Science Foundation- DBI-0946917(TJF01)

CCBER NSF Infrastructure upgrade and curation of Herbarium at UCSB

The Cheadle Center for Biodiversity and Ecological Restoration (CCBER) at UCSB is a facility engaged in graduate and undergraduate education, biodiversity research, habitat restoration, and public outreach including K-12 environmental education. CCBER houses and curates regionally focused, multi-taxon biological research collections and is a local leader in ecological restoration. It enjoys strong faculty and community support-- its collections infrastructure, however, limits current uses, endangers the preservation of its specimens, and will not meet future demands for its services. Our current priority is to upgrade and enhance storage and curation of the vascular plant and algal collections. CCBER's facilities are functioning at maximum capacity and efficient space utilization is a critical concern. Currently, specimen preparation and examination space, and the capacity for collections growth, have been compromised by the lack of a compact storage system that resulted in cabinet overflow into non-storage areas. Therefore efficient rehousing of the herbarium is an immediate and pressing priority.

The goals of this specific proposal are twofold: 1) Support the purchase of a compact storage system to house CCBER’s vascular plant and algae collections; and 2) Improve the curation, accessibility, and preservation of these collections.
--------------

Jennifer Thorsch 9/1/10-8/31/12 $113,824
National Science Foundation DBI-0956281 (TJF03)

Collaborative Proposal: Harnessing the Power of Herbarium Specimens to Understand the Changing Flora of a Biodiversity Hotspot in Peril

The Consortium of California Herbaria (CCH) proposes to database 338,600 specimens and georeference 500,000 specimens of California plants to support the national effort to predict, understand, and monitor the effects of climate change. Taxa targeted for databasing and georeferencing are dominants in California habitats and those that are most imperiled by threats to biodiversity (including climate change). The nineteen partner institutions participating in this collaborative project will make available databased and georeferenced records providing tangible benefits to the public, students of all levels, and the research community.
---------------

Claudia Tyler 08/07/05-08/06/11 $140,000
Santa Barbara County, 06-00881(TC1P02)

Santa Barbara County Oak Restoration Project

The Santa Barbara County Oak Restoration Program (SBCORP) was funded as alternative mitigation for the loss of more than 2000 oaks during installation of the All American Pipeline. As described in the original request for proposals, this program was intended to promote the regeneration of oak habitats within Santa Barbara County through fencing and cattle grazing management.

Initiated in 1995 by investigators at the University of California at Santa Barbara, the Oak Restoration Program was designed with the multiple objectives of research and restoration. This Program represents a long-term commitment by the principal investigators, the University of California at Santa Barbara, and the UC’s Natural Reserve System to: 1) restore several hundred acres of oak savanna and woodlands on Sedgwick Reserve, a 5896-acre ranch at the base of Figueroa Mountain; 2) conduct large-scale grazing and related experiments that will give practical guidance to resource managers and land owners in Santa Barbara County who are concerned with management and restoration of local oak woodlands; 3) disseminate findings in the form of presentations, onsite demonstration projects, and literature that is directed towards locals landowners and resource managers. A Final Report, dated August 2005, summarized the program’s main accomplishments, research findings, and work completed within the initial 10-year contract period. Investigators presented these findings on April 5, 2006 to the Santa Barbara County Planning Commission, which approved renewal of the contract with UCSB for an additional 7-year period.
---------------

Zhengming Wan 12/18/07-3/31/11 $969,645
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NNX08AE62A(WZN06)

Refinement and validation of flexible operational algorithms for the generation of consistent long-term land-surface temperature/emissivity ESDR/CDR products.

Radiance-based validation will be performed routinely for Terra and Aqua MODIS LST products over dozens of test sites world-wide. All the proposed work will be started in the first year. The PGE code for the daily MODIS LST products will be modified for the implementation of the refinements in the 2nd year. The updated code will be delivered to the MODIS Science Team in the 1st half of the 3rd year.

In order to evaluate the operational NPP VIIRS LST product, the MODIS split-window algorithm will be modified to retrieve LSTs using VIIRS data in bands M15 and M16, and the MODIS day/night LST algorithm will be modified to retrieve LST/Es from VIIRS data in seven TIR bands (M12, I4, M13, M14, M15, I5 and M16) at the P.I.’s scientific computing facility.
The P.I. will evaluate the algorithm for NPP/NPOESS VIIRS LST Environmental Data Record (EDR) by comparing it to the MODIS LST algorithms, evaluate the suitability of the NPP/NPOESS LST EDR as ESDR/CDR, and possibly validate the NPP LST product in the third year. He will participate some of the activities of the NPP measurement data processing and production group by attending science meetings and teleconferences, and will join the discussions on the impacts and appropriate options associated with any further slip in the NPP launch schedule and/or technical delays.

The metrics we will use to evaluate our results are 1) the increases in the values of QAPERCENTGOODQUALITY (the percent of retrieved LSTs with accuracies better than 1K) in the metadata of the refined MODIS LST products on the global scale; 2) the improvement must be validated routinely at dozens of test sites with the radiance-based approach; 3) the correlation between the emissivities in the MODIS LST products and the in-situ measured values in our previous field campaigns; 4) the correlation between the emissivities in the Terra and Aqua MODIS LST products, and the reasonable seasonality in the emissivities; and 5) the increases in the applications and publications of the MODIS LST products.
---------------

Zhengming Wan 3/11/11-3/10/13 $200,227
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NNX11AG43G(WZN07)

Science Data Analysis Including TIR BRDF Retrieval for Improvements of the MODIS Land-Surface Temperature/Emissivity Products in Long-term Accuracy and Consistancy.
Revised Work Plan (09-TERRAQUA09-0023) for Two Years

In this Science Data Analysis proposal, science data analysis with various approaches including TIR BRDF retrieval will be made to refine the existing algorithms and PGE code for the standard MODIS Land-Surface Temperature/Emissivity (LST/E) products in order to improve their long-term accuracy and consistency. Major refinements include 1) using yearly or seasonal averaged surface emissivities from C6 MODIS LST products as initial values in the day/night algorithm; 2) using multi-day Terra and Aqua MODIS data in a BRDF scheme for retrieving stable BRDF parameters in bands 20, 22 and 23 so that the angular variation in surface emissivities in all bands may be well modeled; 3) refining the MODIS cloudmask product collaboratively with the cloudmask group to fix the discontinuity problem in LSTs along latitude of ±60o. The long-term quality and consistency of the MODIS LST/E products will be verified by science data analysis of the LST/E correlations with independent data sets of MODIS NDVI, surface observation data of precipitation and soil moisture. Combined with surface emissivity spectra measured by a high-quality TIR Fourier-transfer spectroradiometer with a sun-shadow method in the field and by a TIR spectroradiometer and integrating sphere system in laboratory from terrestrial samples, atmospheric temperature and water vapor profiles from conventional radiosonde and NCEP will be used in a radiance-based approach to validate the LST products over 40 sites on the global land. Error and uncertainty analysis will be made to quantify errors and uncertainties associated with input data and algorithms.
---------------

Search form

2010-2011

Navigation

You are here

Research Summaries 2010-2011